Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snowballzzz]

Merry Christmas, All. I moved to Colorado Springs (specifically 20 minutes east of town on the plains) the beginning of October this year from Wise County. The warmth here and lack of snow in the mountains is mind blowing. I was thinking I would have been snowed in several times by now, but it's starting to feel like we won't have much of a winter here this year. Hopefully Santa brings us all something to look forward to on the models over the next couple of months.

[txtwister78]

Fog/morning cloud cover will keep us from breaking daily records but still may get close later this week for some across the region.

Front arrives Sunday but as we've seen for the most part thus far this winter, another glancing blow of colder air to knock us back down to averages but certainly nothing earth shattering. In fact I would expect above average temps to quickly build back in but for January we're now talking 70's instead of 80's.

No significant pattern change yet. The cold continues to recycle but just haven't got the right setup to deliver it into Texas.

[snownado]

As of 2pm, DFW has tied today's record high of 81*F.

[wxman57]

Lol I saw a TV forecast of 72 yesterday up here for New Years Day and the 0z Euro has a high of 32

Even has a hint of precip it appears

I think we just need to relax and enjoy the holidays if things can change that quickly

I'm pretty sure we'll get cold at some point like it's only December. Even our warmest winters have. Snow is never guaranteed of course even up here

That's the GFS (72) vs. the EC (32) forecast. GFS has not been handling the fast zonal flow well at all. Throw it out. Sunday's front will be quite seasonal. Might get down to the upper 30s or low 40s here in Houston next Tuesday, with a high only in the lower 50s. However, by the following weekend, temps may rise back into the mid to upper 70s for Houston. Good cycling weather!

[Tireman4]

Lol I saw a TV forecast of 72 yesterday up here for New Years Day and the 0z Euro has a high of 32

Even has a hint of precip it appears

I think we just need to relax and enjoy the holidays if things can change that quickly

I'm pretty sure we'll get cold at some point like it's only December. Even our warmest winters have. Snow is never guaranteed of course even up here

That's the GFS (72) vs. the EC (32) forecast. GFS has not been handling the fast zonal flow well at all. Throw it out. Sunday's front will be quite seasonal. Might get down to the upper 30s or low 40s here in Houston next Tuesday, with a high only in the lower 50s. However, by the following weekend, temps may rise back into the mid to upper 70s for Houston. Good cycling weather!

We will have our winter fun one day, Mr. Heat Miser!

[Iceresistance]

Do you like the Alaska Trough going away on trends? I surely do!


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEGcq.gif

[snownado]

As of 2pm, DFW has tied today's record high of 81*F.

82*F is the official high, breaking the record.

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance you mean we want the alaskan ridge lol, does look like its trending closer, I think with all the cold air sitting in western canada, their has been a feedback error in modeling with keeping the trough out west , and we are seeing models correct toward stronger troughing in the east with a more poleward ridge getting closer to alaska and + PNA trying to link up with that ridge, good trends that we like to see for sure

[Ntxw]

Iceresistance you mean we want the alaskan ridge lol, does look like its trending closer, I think with all the cold air sitting in western canada, their has been a feedback error in modeling with keeping the trough out west , and we are seeing models correct toward stronger troughing in the east with a more poleward ridge getting closer to alaska and + PNA trying to link up with that ridge, good trends that we like to see for sure

For us, we'd want to see the -NAO near the Davis straits or towards Hudson Bay. Either ridge if they can poke into the Beaufort Sea would send the cold right down.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yep, that would be ideal, I will say though having just looked at the 18z GEFS, im becoming interested with this next shortwave showing up around the 30th, GEFS is surprisingly aggressive with this shortwave interacting with cold air and has quite a few members breaking out frozen P- types across different parts of the state

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance you mean we want the alaskan ridge lol, does look like its trending closer, I think with all the cold air sitting in western canada, their has been a feedback error in modeling with keeping the trough out west , and we are seeing models correct toward stronger troughing in the east with a more poleward ridge getting closer to alaska and + PNA trying to link up with that ridge, good trends that we like to see for sure

I just realized I made a mistake on mixing up the Alaska Ridge and Trough

[rwfromkansas]

On this day back in 1989 was the peak for some of the big cold wave so many of us recall or talk about. Was a monster 1055mb+ high funneling down from the Dakotas and Nebraska.

December 23rd, 1989

DFW -1F
Houston 7F
Austin 6F
San Antonio 6F
Wichita Falls -7F

https://i.imgur.com/0qF6pyj.jpeg

That was one of the years I remember going to a neighborhood pond and sledding on the pond it was so frozen. Granted, this was in Kansas, so even colder for longer.

[Texoz]

On this day back in 1989 was the peak for some of the big cold wave so many of us recall or talk about. Was a monster 1055mb+ high funneling down from the Dakotas and Nebraska.

December 23rd, 1989

DFW -1F
Houston 7F
Austin 6F
San Antonio 6F
Wichita Falls -7F

I had moved out to the west coast in '86 so I missed out on that. I'm wondering if that's the last time Houston/Austin/San Antonio saw single digits before January?

[Texoz]

The last 4 months have been rather extreme in rainfall for the Austin metro area. Over the past 4 months, we've had one decent event. Thankfully, the November / December rainfall was spread out over different days so that mitigates the damage to plants, but I don't recall a 4 month stretch like this to end the year since I moved back in 2003.

This is Camp Mabry measurements:
0.08 September
2.76 October (happened in one event on 10/24-25)
0.58 November
0.31 December (no rain in 7 day forecast as of 12/23)

[snowballzzz]

End of the 18z GFS looks decent if we’re grasping at straws. Core of the cold down the middle of the US and a couple low pressure systems. Hoping for a pattern change by new years.

[wxman57]

We will have our winter fun one day, Mr. Heat Miser!

Perhaps, one day... For now, winter is MINE!

Time for some long bike rides in 80 deg weather. You can have that brief cold air surge late Sunday.

[Brent]

End of the 18z GFS looks decent if we’re grasping at straws. Core of the cold down the middle of the US and a couple low pressure systems. Hoping for a pattern change by new years.

There is a bit of a signal here for wintry just past New Years

I'm not getting remotely excited but well see. I mean anything is better than this week 2 degrees off the all time high for December already and we got 4 more chances. Im not even sure there's ever been a stretch like this here in December

[Ntxw]

I'm sure some of you have seen it in the twitter world, but the guidance is showing higher pressures over E-Asia to come. That will lower heights over the western Aleutians/Kamchatka region which may kick the Pacific pattern. Slow change, lets see if this continues as it may provide some hope for a better pattern change.

Anything prior to the New Year or close is largely -NAO blocking up the pattern which is a step. It's still very cold up in Alaska/NW Canada with well over -50C in places such as Northway and Mayo, CN we just need a little opening.. Think mid January is when the Pacific works with us.

[starsfan65]

I'm sure some of you have seen it in the twitter world, but the guidance is showing higher pressures over E-Asia to come. That will lower heights over the western Aleutians/Kamchatka region which may kick the Pacific pattern. Slow change, lets see if this continues as it may provide some hope for a better pattern change.

Anything prior to the New Year or close is largely -NAO blocking up the pattern which is a step. It's still very cold up in Alaska/NW Canada with well over -50C in places such as Northway and Mayo, CN we just need a little opening.. Think mid January is when the Pacific works with us.

about New Year's Day?