Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Overnight Euro run looks very interesting for parts of west and north texas with that shortwave late next week

Also snow moving in at the very end of the run(360 hours) mostly north of the Red River but still

To see moisture is news tbh it's been so dry

Also wow I know it's short lived but Monday is barely above freezing here on the Euro this is after 80 on Saturday

[snownado]

If it's any solace, the record high today at DFW should be safe as it is a toasty 88*F.

[Wthrfan]

A few weeks ago some of the so called experts like Joe B were calling for a very cold winter using 1983 as an analog. Missed again Joe!

[Brent]

A few weeks ago some of the so called experts like Joe B were calling for a very cold winter using 1983 as an analog. Missed again Joe!

Larry Cosgrove with his Christmas week to remember. I have screenshots

Oh people are gonna remember it alright probably the hottest week ever in December here. Literally 5 days near the all time record(only missed by 3 yesterday already) and it's probably gonna be warmer than that at some point

[snownado]

Say it with your chest, Delkus!

https://x.com/i/status/2003621611120001120

[Stratton23]

6z Euro has snow in central texas lol, this weather is garbage, but this next front could be somewhat interesting

[txwxwatcher]

A few weeks ago some of the so called experts like Joe B were calling for a very cold winter using 1983 as an analog. Missed again Joe!

Larry Cosgrove with his Christmas week to remember. I have screenshots

Oh people are gonna remember it alright probably the hottest week ever in December here. Literally 5 days near the all time record(only missed by 3 yesterday already) and it's probably gonna be warmer than that at some point

Larry Cosgrove gets it wrong way more often than he gets it right.

[Brent]

A few weeks ago some of the so called experts like Joe B were calling for a very cold winter using 1983 as an analog. Missed again Joe!

Larry Cosgrove with his Christmas week to remember. I have screenshots

Oh people are gonna remember it alright probably the hottest week ever in December here. Literally 5 days near the all time record(only missed by 3 yesterday already) and it's probably gonna be warmer than that at some point

Larry Cosgrove gets it wrong way more often than he gets it right.

Yeah I heard he got confused about the mjo too(there was actually a big argument about it because someone was like but he said that) like dude I think it's time to hang it up. This was after it was becoming clear Christmas was gonna be ridiculous heat

[Stratton23]

Seeing a slow flip toward a + EAMT toward early january, this is exactly why we have a long ways to go this winter and its is far from over despite what you may have heard, you definitely want to see a + EAMT as that is what helps to shoce the aleutian ridge toward alaska and build a new - EPO regime, this front in about a week is more - NAO driven, but the signs are there for changes in january, just gotta look for them in certain regions of the world, patience is the biggest key word here

[Brent]

Seeing a slow flip toward a + EAMT toward early january, this is exactly why we have a long ways to go this winter and its is far from over despite what you may have heard, you definitely want to see a + EAMT as that is what helps to shoce the aleutian ridge toward alaska and build a new - EPO regime, this front in about a week is more - NAO driven, but the signs are there for changes in january, just gotta look for them in certain regions of the world, patience is the biggest key word here

That's what I'm saying too most years it hasn't done much before January anyway and of course we've seen the history of February

I wasn't here in 2013 but I've literally never seen a big snowstorm before Christmas. I know the torch sucks and the timing sucks even worse but like... We do have a long way to go. It was 83 in February 2 weeks before it was near zero(and if you remember that was some of the coldest air we've ever seen that late) haha

[Stratton23]

Brent yup lol, outside of last january down here, it always felt like december and january have been dead months , february has been our best month of winter for a while now, I dont think we will be waiting that long for something interesting to happen, heck the euro and ensemble guidance is already looking interesting next week with that shortwave coming down, to me you gotta just take it by a week by week basis, things change so much, one sec modeling can look so boring, and then another and its looks interesting

[bubba hotep]

I'm sure some of you have seen it in the twitter world, but the guidance is showing higher pressures over E-Asia to come. That will lower heights over the western Aleutians/Kamchatka region which may kick the Pacific pattern. Slow change, lets see if this continues as it may provide some hope for a better pattern change.

Anything prior to the New Year or close is largely -NAO blocking up the pattern which is a step. It's still very cold up in Alaska/NW Canada with well over -50C in places such as Northway and Mayo, CN we just need a little opening.. Think mid January is when the Pacific works with us.

I posted a while back that we would need to watch for something to change across E. Asia. Even still, this current -NAO wasn't well forecasted, and that isn't uncommon with the various pathways to an -NAO. Ultimately, given the background state and that this is a transition winter, I think the odds will be stacked against us for any kind of prolonged cold period. Our best bet will be a classic La Nina cold blast ("McFarland Signature").

[TomballEd]

2026 looks to start mild, warm but not this warm, on the 0Z Euro. Some precip, maybe an inch, even two EPS and Op, not enough to help locally with the drought. Austin (important because I lived there 9 months a year for over 5 years) really looks dry. Austin itself is not quite into D3 (extreme drought) but its getting closer.

[Ntxw]

Seeing a slow flip toward a + EAMT toward early january, this is exactly why we have a long ways to go this winter and its is far from over despite what you may have heard, you definitely want to see a + EAMT as that is what helps to shoce the aleutian ridge toward alaska and build a new - EPO regime, this front in about a week is more - NAO driven, but the signs are there for changes in january, just gotta look for them in certain regions of the world, patience is the biggest key word here

That's what I'm saying too most years it hasn't done much before January anyway and of course we've seen the history of February

I wasn't here in 2013 but I've literally never seen a big snowstorm before Christmas. I know the torch sucks and the timing sucks even worse but like... We do have a long way to go. It was 83 in February 2 weeks before it was near zero(and if you remember that was some of the coldest air we've ever seen that late) haha

To be fair outside of 2021, February hasn't done much for us either at least here in DFW lately. Every other year or so it will have the coldest temp of the season trading off with January.

[Stratton23]

I just feel like we are going to have a massive arctic dump sometime down the road, its more of a feeling than any evidence to back up my statement, but i think its going to happen lol

[Cpv17]

I personally have zero complaints about the weather we’re currently having other than the fog in the morning. It feels great out there to me. I would like some rain soon though.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles are showing more of a signal that the STJ may become more active across the state over the next - 2 weeks ,, this could include chances at winter weather across some portions of the state as well, lets hope, this current weather is absolutely dog***t lol

[txtwister78]

As mentioned back in mid Dec we really need the pattern to slow down so we can get systems to dig a bit more and pull some of this colder air further to the south as opposed to this persistent NW flow that's just been status quo from W Canada into the NE and eastern sections of the country.

Maybe that changes as we move into mid January. Some signs that blocking in Greenland may develop which could help our cause and at a minimum begin to setup a more active pattern with troughs digging a bit more west and furrher south.

In the meantime the status quo weather regime continues with another quick shot of much cooler air late Sunday into early next wk followed by mild/warmer air quickly building back in.

[txtwister78]

2026 looks to start mild, warm but not this warm, on the 0Z Euro. Some precip, maybe an inch, even two EPS and Op, not enough to help locally with the drought. Austin (important because I lived there 9 months a year for over 5 years) really looks dry. Austin itself is not quite into D3 (extreme drought) but its getting closer.

https://i.imgur.com/Xea73IJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/ULZvoes.png

We just haven't been able to put much of a dent in the drought across Bexar County.

Firework restrictions went out a week ago across the county as a result. Need the rain.

[JDawg512]

Meanwhile California is just getting dumped on and we can't seem to catch a break here.