Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

While the 500mb flow will not allow the cold air to settle in too long.I wouldn’t be surprised if we get into the teens here with the quick shot of cold air coming early next week. As the surface high looks to be pretty potent. Similar to a couple of weeks ago.

[Ntxw]

I do like the Atlantic blocking veering closer to Atlantic Canada in the long range. That will force undercutting of the cold and storms more in our direction vs out into the northeast US. Trough over Japan will help way better in the Pacific.

Wish everyone a happy Christmas Eve!

[Stratton23]

Hope thats the case! Its crazy how christmas is here already and 2026 is just 8 days away! Time sure goes by fast! Happy holidays everyone, and heres to hoping for arctic cold and snow chances in the new year ahead!

[TomballEd]

I do like the Atlantic blocking veering closer to Atlantic Canada in the long range. That will force undercutting of the cold and storms more in our direction vs out into the northeast US. Trough over Japan will help way better in the Pacific.

Wish everyone a happy Christmas Eve!

Merry Christmas.


To amuse myself, since I've only been a Texan, is to get enthusiastic for a potential 1 foot snowstorm in NYC, where I was born. Snow in December shouldn't be rare in NYC but it has become rare. Temp profiles in storms up there, NYC is having Baltimore winters and Boston has been having NYC type winters. Its like watching the Cowboys and Texans, one of them should be decent. I spent 25 years after 1981 watching the Cowboys with the Giants as a backup team, one was usually good if the other was bad.

I suspect there will be a hard freeze for most of Texas, it seems to happen more recent cold ENSO winters than not. Hard freeze is a plant killer, not a snow bringer to these parts.

[gpsnowman]

Merry Christmas all!!
Smoking ribs here at Caddo Lake and sweating. Caddo is beautiful in the winter especially when it is cold. Hope everyone gets what they want for Christmas. I want a 2026 blizzard so we will see how that goes.

[Brent]

I wish the winter weather would be this easy and obvious to forecast just saying

[Stratton23]

GEFS remains still bullish on winter precipitation breaking out across parts of the state as the shortwave passes through, looks like it would occur behind the frontal passage

[Golfisnoteasy75]

If the pacific jet extension is true, the pacific should become more favorable as time goes on for cold and winter weather imo.

[Stratton23]

Very interesting 18z EPS run, i see some similarities showing up comparative to the 2017 december snowfall surprise event

[snownado]

Another record high minimum was set today at DFW (61*F), breaking the previous record of 60*F.

Merry Christmas to all!

[rwfromkansas]

Seeing lots of old photos in my phone memories of the huge snowstorm December 2013. Drove up and was pushing a foot of snow with my car in Kansas. It was bad even for hours in OK. Just a crazy storm.

[Brent]

Seeing lots of old photos in my phone memories of the huge snowstorm December 2013. Drove up and was pushing a foot of snow with my car in Kansas. It was bad even for hours in OK. Just a crazy storm.

I have pictures of the river frozen over in 2022 here

But since 2021 that's the only Christmas with interesting weather pretty much

Maybe one of these years we'll get a 2013 or 2009 again(the first real blizzard on record here). It must have been something getting back to back blizzards between Christmas 2009 and February 2011(which is the biggest snow on record here) I suppose were paying for that now too

In fact the only winter 2010-2011 didn't beat here for snowfall is one winter from the 1950s!

[txtwister78]

Very interesting 18z EPS run, i see some similarities showing up comparative to the 2017 december snowfall surprise event

That event we had a little more cold air to work with than what is currently being advertised by the models along with more moisture behind the frontal boundary.

In addition we saw an upper level disturbance drop south and provide a colder pocket of air to cool temp profiles from a cold rain to all snow for a few hours. In fact we saw a few thunder claps here in SA.

Not seeing that right now.

[snownado]

Perhaps the only frustrating part of the forecast this week is the extent that models (and thus forecasters) have struggled with the placement & development of fog/stratus each morning under the southern / SW flow.

FWD insisted that it would stay SE of DFW today, but per satellite, it's actually right on the doorstep.

[Brent]

Probably gonna have the record high for Christmas of 73 before lunch

The end of the GFS did look somewhat better around Alaska and there's still a signal on the EPS here

[snownado]

Also, it does appear Sunday is trending warmer on the latest model runs.

[Brent]

Also, it does appear Sunday is trending warmer on the latest model runs.

The front is slower for sure but I've also seen model runs of a wintry mix not far away Sunday night

[wxman22]

The ICON has the low getting down to 14 here Monday night. With single digits nearby. It shows a 1036mb High sitting right over NW Texas.Its probably overdone though.Mesoscale models will be interesting once in range.

[snownado]

The NWS wanted to grace us with its finest dad joke for the holidays...

https://x.com/i/status/2004175499782766624

[wxman22]

I like the trends that the Euro has been showing for the beginning of January. It's showing signs that the subtropical jet may become active over the state.