Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

DFW tied the record high of 82*F today.

[txtwister78]

I don't see anything screaming for more than normal cold weather of the type that arrives late tomorrow on the ensembles. I will note February 2021 happened in an otherwise uneventful season. A winter version of the 'Its Only Takes One'. A ground white with frozen particles of drizzle was not my idea of winter fun.

The 500mb heights on the EPS certainly look more interesting in the 10-15 day range.

In the meantime I agree status quo weather pattern continues. Despite our cool down early this week we warm back up quickly as HP builds back in from the west. Low 80's again possible in my neck of the woods by Friday into next weekend and then we watch for trends beyond that.

I'm more interested in that mid January timeframe because at least there are signals out there that hint at a pattern reshuffle that removes us from the one we've been locked under since the start of winter.

Im kinda surprised the ensembles aren't hinting at a ridge over Alaska with the jet extension but admittedly im not a weatherman lol. I just want an active pattern with a few winter storm chances

The weeklies are once we get out into the mid January timeframe. That model is most definitely hinting at a pattern shift that may finally align all our teleconnections into a more favorable setup for some winter weather potential across the southern plains including Texas should that trend continue.

Obviously this is still a few weeks out so your ops and even the daily ENS only go out so far in range but at least as mentioned earlier we're beginning to see some signals that by mid January and beyond you may get your wish. In the meantime the rollercoaster pattern of brief seasonal cold snaps followed by big warm-ups continues.

[txtwister78]

I'll also mention this as we look at daily model runs, keep in mind this will be a transition but the first sign we're actually already beginning to see and that's the southern jet becoming more active by the 2nd week of January.

Hell I'll take that just because we desperately need the rain but again that's the first player on the map that you need anyway in order to lock in all the other pieces for a winter weather pattern

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 whats rain? I think i’ve forgotten what rain
is lol. But would love for a few opportunities for some wintry fun

[rwfromkansas]

Drove up to Kansas today for my family Christmas and apparently there is a chance of snow tomorrow; just light with no accumulation but I guess some mood flakes. I will take it.

I knew enough to bring a coat but literally didn’t check the forecast and had no idea.

[Brent]

85! For Tulsa today the all time December record was 80 which we had 3 days on record of 80 before this week and now we have 6 days on record

Wind chills in the teens coming Monday!

I mean any kind of a pattern change would be news at this point

[Harp.1]

85! For Tulsa today the all time December record was 80 which we had 3 days on record of 80 before this week and now we have 6 days on record

Wind chills in the teens coming Monday!

I mean any kind of a pattern change would be news at this point

I lived in Tulsa from 1968 -1974. We had snow every winter. I remember those days very well. We had all 4 seasons.

[Brent]

85! For Tulsa today the all time December record was 80 which we had 3 days on record of 80 before this week and now we have 6 days on record

Wind chills in the teens coming Monday!

I mean any kind of a pattern change would be news at this point

I lived in Tulsa from 1968 -1974. We had snow every winter. I remember those days very well. We had all 4 seasons.

Oh I don't doubt it'll snow at some point(although some years even since I've been here have struggled to get more than an inch unfortunately) but yeah this has been a crazy week for sure. Totally rewrote the records for December

I'm still pretty optimistic about January. I mean up here it can't be like this all winter haha

[Golfisnoteasy75]

85! For Tulsa today the all time December record was 80 which we had 3 days on record of 80 before this week and now we have 6 days on record

Wind chills in the teens coming Monday!

I mean any kind of a pattern change would be news at this point

I lived in Tulsa from 1968 -1974. We had snow every winter. I remember those days very well. We had all 4 seasons.

Oh I don't doubt it'll snow at some point(although some years even since I've been here have struggled to get more than an inch unfortunately) but yeah this has been a crazy week for sure. Totally rewrote the records for December

I'm still pretty optimistic about January. I mean up here it can't be like this all winter haha

I am until mid January. Then I mentally wave the white flag and whatever happens happens at that point

[Brent]

I lived in Tulsa from 1968 -1974. We had snow every winter. I remember those days very well. We had all 4 seasons.

Oh I don't doubt it'll snow at some point(although some years even since I've been here have struggled to get more than an inch unfortunately) but yeah this has been a crazy week for sure. Totally rewrote the records for December

I'm still pretty optimistic about January. I mean up here it can't be like this all winter haha

I am until mid January. Then I mentally wave the white flag and whatever happens happens at that point

Well see but I also keep remembering how the best storms here last year came out of nowhere. In fact it was basically mid January last year before anything happened too

The stuff hyped to death and on the models for weeks like February the snow way underperformed like every Arctic blast since 2022

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Oh I don't doubt it'll snow at some point(although some years even since I've been here have struggled to get more than an inch unfortunately) but yeah this has been a crazy week for sure. Totally rewrote the records for December

I'm still pretty optimistic about January. I mean up here it can't be like this all winter haha

I am until mid January. Then I mentally wave the white flag and whatever happens happens at that point

Well see but I also keep remembering how the best storms here last year came out of nowhere. In fact it was basically mid January last year before anything happened too

The stuff hyped to death and on the models for weeks like February the snow way underperformed like every Arctic blast since 2022

Personally, im not believing a cold stormier pattern here unless the eps and or gefs shows ridging over alaska/nw Canada. Perhaps that happens mid January, but too far out to know.

[Ntxw]

I am until mid January. Then I mentally wave the white flag and whatever happens happens at that point

Well see but I also keep remembering how the best storms here last year came out of nowhere. In fact it was basically mid January last year before anything happened too

The stuff hyped to death and on the models for weeks like February the snow way underperformed like every Arctic blast since 2022

Personally, im not believing a cold stormier pattern here unless the eps and or gefs shows ridging over alaska/nw Canada. Perhaps that happens mid January, but too far out to know.

It kind of depends. I noted up above our best snow events come from the -NAO (with decent Pacific). They tend to creep up on you more so as they give model fits because the patterned slowed. They don't always work out though but do happen. And frankly none of the models are showing any kind of mind numbing cold to begin January, lower 500mb heights with cold nearby. I think what you're referring to is the classic arctic outbreak -EPO/-AO driven cold, that likely won't happen until the second half of January once the Pacific ridge works it's way back up from +PNA connected to the -WPO.

[Ntxw]

Frontogenesis in eastern Wyoming and South Dakota, marking the end of the great Christmas heat wave of 2025. Front will be racing to Cancun by Tuesday.

[gpsnowman]

Frontogenesis in eastern Wyoming and South Dakota, marking the end of the great Christmas heat wave of 2025. Front will be racing to Cancun by Tuesday.

https://i.imgur.com/4eTAgxw.png

Good riddance to this heat and record highs/high minimums. I don't want to see 80s again until April. Can't wait for the falling temps and wind chills tomorrow evening.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Frontogenesis in eastern Wyoming and South Dakota, marking the end of the great Christmas heat wave of 2025. Front will be racing to Cancun by Tuesday.

https://i.imgur.com/4eTAgxw.png

We were set for a solid 5" from this front, but instead of an open trough, it wrapped up into a ULL. This will restrict alot of our upslope flow. Lucky if we see an inch of snow here now.

[Ntxw]

Frontogenesis in eastern Wyoming and South Dakota, marking the end of the great Christmas heat wave of 2025. Front will be racing to Cancun by Tuesday.

https://i.imgur.com/4eTAgxw.png

We were set for a solid 5" from this front, but instead of an open trough, it wrapped up into a ULL. This will restrict alot of our upslope flow. Lucky if we see an inch of snow here now.

Atlantic blocking, we'll probably see a lot of this trend in the coming weeks.

[Stratton23]

Man i absolutely LOVE what im seeing on the overnight GFS/ Euro runs, looks really freaking good!

[gpsnowman]

Man i absolutely LOVE what im seeing on the overnight GFS/ Euro runs, looks really freaking good!

Do tell. We need a major shakeup before March

[Stratton23]

gpsnowman troughs digging out to our west, really far south storm track, high latitude blocking from Alaska- greenland connections , some se ridging to provide resistance, those runs are what we want to see

[gpsnowman]

gpsnowman troughs digging out to our west, really far south storm track, high latitude blocking from Alaska- greenland connections , some se ridging to provide resistance, those runs are what we want to see

Amen brother. Lots of goodies in the future. The overall hot Oct, Nov, Dec, has got me a bit weather angry. Patiently waiting for a pattern flip the second half of winter. Second half loaded winters are usually the best in Texas anyway.