Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TropicalTundra]

Just saw some video from Midland and they definitely have a nice dusting on the ground.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The slight difference is the EPS favors an eastern trough, the GEFS favors a western trough and GEPS right in the middle where we are. Of course day 10+. Seasonal trends favor EPS, personally rooting for the Canadian bunch.

There is not a lot of modern analogs for the upcoming pattern, it will be a fairly tough forecast.

We have blocking coming in the NA, now we need -EPO to kick in within the next two weeks.

[DukeMu]

The models are approaching concurrence with another cold snap as we approach mid-month - how long it lasts in a Texas La Nina winter is another question.

All it takes is one or two events though. 2020/2021 was pretty warm overall but of course we all remember that one week period in February.

Some of our biggest winters in terms of snow and cold have come during La Nina winters despite them primarily being dry/warmer overall as is typical during most. 84/85 was another example of that and I mentioned the other day what happened Jan 85 in Texas particularly SC TX.

CLL got two 5 inch snows (Jan, Feb) in 2021, with the Feb. winter storm of course crashing the TX power grid.

[DukeMu]

On the subject of analogs and the pattern that could be on the way mid month and beyond...CFS bringing it!

 https://x.com/i/status/2005728481448190398

Gotta love the block on Alaska and Greenland. Come to papa.

[Tireman4]

Lost power in SW Houston around 3am with wind gusts 40-45 mph. Never even noticed. Generator kicked on within 5 seconds. The only reason I knew was that some of the digital clocks were blinking (oven, microwave). Looking forward to temps near 80 on Friday.

I like this CFS graphic for Jan-March temps. Above normal all across Texas!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2025122906/cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_us_1.png

Welcome to the generator club, sir. My wife has generator set on 15 minutes ( the generator does not kick in until the power being out 15 minutes. Her call. Lol)

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The slight difference is the EPS favors an eastern trough, the GEFS favors a western trough and GEPS right in the middle where we are. Of course day 10+. Seasonal trends favor EPS, personally rooting for the Canadian bunch.

There is not a lot of modern analogs for the upcoming pattern, it will be a fairly tough forecast.

18zgefs was a decent trajectory of the cold air into the west-central us way out in lala land.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models seem consistent for the -EPO to get going around the 12th. Blocking needs to hang around till then!

[mmmmsnouts]

. Unfortunately, no precipitation is anticipated this week
or for the foreseeable future as we continue in a very long
stretch without significant rainfall.

What’s this, like 6 or 7 stretches of a month-plus without rain the last three years? This isn’t a quirk, this is a trend.

[Brent]

. Unfortunately, no precipitation is anticipated this week
or for the foreseeable future as we continue in a very long
stretch without significant rainfall.

What’s this, like 6 or 7 stretches of a month-plus without rain the last three years? This isn’t a quirk, this is a trend.

Yeah I'm remembering all those people who complained about their summer plans getting washed out and I kept telling them at some point we would miss the rain and now look

That's the other thing even if we get a big snow this winter it probably won't do us any good we were above average last year(and had the snowiest day in years) and still had the worst fires in state history over spring break

It's a problem for sure

[Stratton23]

Ensembles continue to look really good, in fact the newest 00z GEFS run loading right now looks even better! Looks like a situation in which arctic sir would just completely overwhelm the pattern, GEPS looks good too, i would absolutely love to see another snow storm like last january, that was so much fun!

[Brent]

GFS with a winter storm here on the 10th 11th

EPS still has a decent signal with a couple big storms

[TexasF6]

Happy New Year Everyone! I did report my sleet falling yesterday! Surprised but not unwelcome!

[Stratton23]

GFS looks really good, ensembles look even better this afternoon

[TomballEd]

This probably doesn't verify. But 6 hour precip of over a cm falling as freezing rain would be a big deal.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Wow, those CFS weeklies are awful.

No cold virtually anywhere. But it’s often wrong. I think it predicted a cold December.

If the EPS says the ridge will be on the east coast, Lucy may take the football again.

If it happens again, then….

Winter Cancel?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's hard for me to trust the models this year. Been watching when the jet stream in the W Pac really gains strength. It intensifies at ~140 hrs. Not too far out. This will lead to a strong -EPO. etc etc etc.
Ntx, other than the MJO projections, what the best way to see a large amount of convection on the equator? I was looking at 300-700 humidity levels. Trying to educate myself even more and more. Could help reduce head fakes in the future.

[Ntxw]

It's hard for me to trust the models this year. Been watching when the jet stream in the W Pac really gains strength. It intensifies at ~140 hrs. Not too far out. This will lead to a strong -EPO. etc etc etc.
Ntx, other than the MJO projections, what the best way to see a large amount of convection on the equator? I was looking at 300-700 humidity levels. Trying to educate myself even more and more. Could help reduce head fakes in the future.

200mb CHI with a global map but of course projections are only as good as the guidance is with mjo, the two are interconnected. MJO is incoherent and remains so in the foreseeable future so it's not a good predictor currently. You'll just see spread out forcing with no real coherent region of uplift.

I still believe the real change is mid month and beyond, nothing has reshuffled the beginning of January.

[wxman57]

This probably doesn't verify. But 6 hour precip of over a cm falling as freezing rain would be a big deal.

https://i.imgur.com/ogzpi9u.png

12Z EC says "what winter weather around the 11th?" Careful believing the GFS beyond about 3 days if it is the only model showing something.

[Cpv17]

This probably doesn't verify. But 6 hour precip of over a cm falling as freezing rain would be a big deal.

https://i.imgur.com/ogzpi9u.png

12Z EC says "what winter weather around the 11th?" Careful believing the GFS beyond about 3 days if it is the only model showing something.

It’s hard to believe any model past 3 days in regards to precipitation and storm track.

[Ntxw]

Do like that the EPS has been shifting from mostly east coast to a more central trough. Once the Pacific changes the ensembles are lining up, at the moment, for better cold trajectory. Count me in for Ridging off the west coast and east coast!