2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

PDO is right now up from -2.05 in October to -1.36 in the November data.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

[WeatherBoy2000]

PDO is right now up from -2.05 in October to -1.36 in the November data.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G8P6M4TbMAATC7U?format=png&name=medium

I won't be surprised if December comes out even higher at this rate:

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002163360964788325

[Dean_175]

It is way too early to put much stock into these models -with the spring barrier and significant forecast time. But the latest ensemble members from the CFS model are not as bullish towards a strong El Nino as they were a couple of weeks ago.

[cycloneye]

The plume of all the models say, not so fast about El Niño becoming moderate or strong by summer or fall.

[Kingarabian]

Another strong WWB over the MC is in the forcast and it could end up in the WPAC by January. Let's see if this triggers a meaningful downwelling KW that doesn't fragment once it reaches the dateline.

[Kingarabian]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2000928649873436881

If this is the case then El Nino chances are going to plummet. Most of those years Ben cited were stout La Ninas.

I also dont remember that a warmer than normal WPAC being helpful in triggering El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

PDO is right now up from -2.05 in October to -1.36 in the November data.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G8P6M4TbMAATC7U?format=png&name=medium

I won't be surprised if December comes out even higher at this rate:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_npac.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_change15_npac.png

Anomalies are still pretty warm east of Japan. PDO also historically warms during the winter regardless of its state.

[cycloneye]

The warm pool is advancing slowly eastward. Niño 3.4 at -0.8C on CPC 12/22/25 update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI is currently negative but will flip positive soon due to the IO getting a solid MJO pulse.

[cycloneye]

For the first time since early July, warm anomalies appear at depth. CPC weekly update of 12/29/25 is at -0.7C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Look how the warm pool is expanding eastward.

[Kingarabian]

Big dateline trade burst on the most recent GFS runs. Would like to see more WWBs over the WPAC.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2007431688587268605

[Kingarabian]

GFS flip flopping a lot. Showing a WWB over the WPAC by mid June.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2007821821576650834

[cycloneye]

A great X thread from Eric Webb. The last one is me asking Eric about the 30 day SOI being positive and there is his answer in the last two posts.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007864341656477847



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007872551264092453



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007866666974408802



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007873994846867843



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007875278576800127



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007875715908444608

[Yellow Evan]

I was surprised when digging the other day how similar the present look is to the December 1956 and 2013 SST configuration. Both years featured a significant multi-year shift to +PDO that tilted the long term base state to +ENSO over the next few years. I’m not expecting this to happen at this point and imo there are other good analogs but it’s at least worth noting.

[mixedDanilo.E]

I'm very interested that Eric webb says that the current pattern is shifting into a potential modoki el niño pattern.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF maybe a little bit fast with that projection?

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/2008164338146697357