Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

I know it is an operational run, but holy sweet mother of jefferson davis that is an absolutely insane run from the 00z Euro, that 500 mb pattern is mona Lisa level beautiful! AIFS/ AIFS Euro both look extremely cold as well post 13th ish, we gotta get through this warm period first, but good lordy euro

[Harp.1]

I know it is an operational run, but holy sweet mother of jefferson davis that is an absolutely insane run from the 00z Euro, that 500 mb pattern is mona Lisa level beautiful! AIFS/ AIFS Euro both look extremely cold as well post 13th ish, we gotta get through this warm period first, but good lordy euro

Dry cold?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 run doesnt go far enough to show. if any precipitation falls, not that it matters at this range lol, but i can tell you, rhays the kind of pattern in which you bring out the big animal skin coats lol, in other words, really cold stuff

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 run doesnt go far enough to show. if any precipitation falls, not that it matters at this range lol, but i can tell you, rhays the kind of pattern in which you bring out the big animal skin coats lol, in other words, really cold stuff

Ok. I'm just not seeing it. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong things.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 gotta look at the ensembles at this range, id just figured id mention the euro run for the heck of it, ensembles still look very good mid month, and they have been consistent on this idea for days now, we just dont know how cold and if the STJ will be a player or not

[Brent]

Well it rained a little here nice to see the moisture back for a minute

If nothing else maybe that will be a thing in the coming weeks

[Cpv17]

I know it is an operational run, but holy sweet mother of jefferson davis that is an absolutely insane run from the 00z Euro, that 500 mb pattern is mona Lisa level beautiful! AIFS/ AIFS Euro both look extremely cold as well post 13th ish, we gotta get through this warm period first, but good lordy euro

Lol the 0z Euro has a 1069MB high in NW Canada. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the Euro have that strong of a high before on any of its model runs. It’s usually conservative when it comes to strengths of HP’s.

[Brent]

AccuWeather has temps in free fall by the 15th. Much more impressive than yesterday. It's a lot closer to normal the second week before that

It stays cold through the end of the month too once it hits

I think it's only a matter of time. There's no way up here at least we don't get an interesting week or two

[wxman57]

So, now it's down to: "Don't trust the operational runs, find one or two ensemble members that indicate winter weather."? Grasping at straws now. Meanwhile, time for more 80s here in Houston. Finally, it's warm enough to go outside again after that last cold front. That 0Z EC run looks like another Ohio Valley and NE U.S. system. No sign of any significant pattern shift across the U.S. Oh, I wish winter was over, but late January and February will have some surprises, I'm sure.

Oh, and the EC run 24 hours ago had a major cold front moving south through Texas next weekend (10th-11th). Now it has only a weak surge of cold air moving through. Neither the GFS nor the EC long-range forecast can be trusted.

[snownado]

So, now it's down to: "Don't trust the operational runs, find one or two ensemble members that indicate winter weather."? Grasping at straws now. Meanwhile, time for more 80s here in Houston. Finally, it's warm enough to go outside again after that last cold front. That 0Z EC run looks like another Ohio Valley and NE U.S. system. No sign of any significant pattern shift across the U.S. Oh, I wish winter was over, but late January and February will have some surprises, I'm sure.

Oh, and the EC run 24 hours ago had a major cold front moving south through Texas next weekend (10th-11th). Now it has only a weak surge of cold air moving through. Neither the GFS nor the EC long-range forecast can be trusted.

Definitely with you on the bolded.

It seems Texas can never escape a winter without at least one extreme cold outbreak at some point in recent years, even if it's precip-free.

[Ntxw]

The reason we keep seeing the pattern shift get pushed out is because the models (including ensembles) are not properly seeing Alaska region. So until the -EPO is in place, it will keep getting pushed further out.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw im not really that surprised thats its delayed slightly ( get ready for winters ocer comments to come lol ). In fact even for some of the more respected mets on social media, they were calling for a warm period before the pattern shifts, seems to me we are still on track, more so expected delays than unexpected

[Ntxw]

Ntxw im not really that surprised thats its delayed slightly ( get ready for winters ocer comments to come lol ). In fact even for some of the more respected mets on social media, they were calling for a warm period before the pattern shifts, seems to me we are still on track, more so expected delays than unexpected

Yeah it's going to take time for the retrogression. I was just pointing out what to look for even on ensembles, which is guidance has been rushing to the change.

Patience is running thin for me because this pushing 80s is about to kill me with the southerly flow the devil pollen, mountain cedar . For me the warmer it is in Jan and Feb the sicker I feel, literally a curse!

[Stratton23]

Ntxw oh i totally get that, i dont have all allergies, but i cant stand when pollen is just everywhere, especially after i just get done with a car wash, everything just gets covered up again, but i do think that their are some things to watch out for until the block sets up though, the fact models have been consistent with showing an active STJ the next few weeks is very encouraging for rain and possibly more lol

[txtwister78]

Notwithstanding the Euro Op in the long range, the overnight Euro AI ensemble vs Euro ensemble is one you want to see especially in regard to spiking that ridge (-EPO) in the mid Jan timeframe.

But to NTXW point model guidance is sort of all over the place here which again isn't all thst uncommon when you see these "hand off" transitions to different patterns.

[txtwister78]

In the meantime, it's 80 here and pushing to highs near 90 today. Incredible!

[Harp.1]

What do you mean by hands off?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 basically transitioning from one pattern to another, their usually is going to be an adjustment period by the models ensembles when it comes to the - EPO returning, it happens with any sort of pattern change, hot or dry or cold, or wet as well lol

[txtwister78]

What do you mean by hands off?

Hand off....transition from the pattern we've been locked under to a more favorable pattern that establishes our cold source/delivery. A lot of moving parts there that models will struggle with initially.

In addition to that our MJO isn't helping in that regard either as it's literally hanging out in the null phase. That can also complicate things a bit pertaining to model guidance and lead to some uncertainty in the longer range.

[Harp.1]

Thanks to both of you for your explanation. Looks like for now we are in no man’s land.