Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, I think if the mjo don't go into phase 6, we may be in good shape or do we want it to go into phase 6? I do know things keep getting pushed back, which isn't good. I do hope we see a legit wpo/epo combo if we can get it. Imo, if we had a coherent mjo signal, the models would move a colder pattern up instead of delaying it. Not sure what we actually need to get things rolling in the right direction

We can go into P6, which is warm, as long as it keeps moving along to P7 which is cold this time of year. But yeah a phase 6 still isn't good.

https://i.imgur.com/E4ww0ER.png

We need actual MJO progression, null middle circle is simply split forcing which the background low freq state (warm P4-6) just recycles due to MC-WPAC warm pool forcing.

What do you think happens? Moving forward. Be honest lol

I think we get 1 shot (period) of real cold late January and early Feb. I've had ideas about 2007-2008 winter so early March might be in play when wavelengths shorten, wild card though.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

We can go into P6, which is warm, as long as it keeps moving along to P7 which is cold this time of year. But yeah a phase 6 still isn't good.

https://i.imgur.com/E4ww0ER.png

We need actual MJO progression, null middle circle is simply split forcing which the background low freq state (warm P4-6) just recycles due to MC-WPAC warm pool forcing.

What do you think happens? Moving forward. Be honest lol

I think we get 1 shot (period) of real cold late January and early Feb. I've had ideas about 2007-2008 winter so early March might be in play when wavelengths shorten, wild card though.

I imagine you are going by the mjo and if it can progress into colder phases. Eric webb mentioned some things today on Twitter that peaks interest. The million dollar question is if it can allow February to be colder.

[Ntxw]

What do you think happens? Moving forward. Be honest lol

I think we get 1 shot (period) of real cold late January and early Feb. I've had ideas about 2007-2008 winter so early March might be in play when wavelengths shorten, wild card though.

I imagine you are going by the mjo and if it can progress into colder phases. Eric webb mentioned some things today on Twitter that peaks interest. The million dollar question is if it can allow February to be colder.

Partially, 20-30 day MJO progression wasn't going to see fast change. I had made a post back on Dec 20th highlighting the time it would take. Of course the cold monger in me wanted things to change and thus lost the view and believed the models.

Got back from Minnesota the snowpack was pretty good early in the week and gradually diminished by Friday. Below zero felt great .

Looks like the well advertised torchmas week is on tap. The -NAO will allow systems to dig to the SW but these will largely be cutoff from the cold supply due to the persistent Aleutian ridge holding the frigid air in Alaska and NW Canada. And it is a very persistent signature, it's not going away anytime soon. I don't think anything will change until at least week 2 of January and models tends to rush things.

If we don't get an MJO propagation, the pattern will repeat. It will be building cold over Alaska/NW Canada and spilling into the GOA, and then east of us. We'll see if anything changes mid January but there is no real sign of it. 300+ hours out isn't believable if there isn't a true mechanism for it.

Back in late October and November there were signs of cold for early December because of the Aleutian trough, so 300+ hours out you can see kind of why. Aleutian ridge doesn't translate to cold down here 2 weeks down the road.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I think we get 1 shot (period) of real cold late January and early Feb. I've had ideas about 2007-2008 winter so early March might be in play when wavelengths shorten, wild card though.

I imagine you are going by the mjo and if it can progress into colder phases. Eric webb mentioned some things today on Twitter that peaks interest. The million dollar question is if it can allow February to be colder.

Partially, 20-30 day MJO progression wasn't going to see fast change. I had made a post back on Dec 20th highlighting the time it would take. Of course the cold monger in me wanted things to change and thus lost the view and believed the models.

Got back from Minnesota the snowpack was pretty good early in the week and gradually diminished by Friday. Below zero felt great .

Looks like the well advertised torchmas week is on tap. The -NAO will allow systems to dig to the SW but these will largely be cutoff from the cold supply due to the persistent Aleutian ridge holding the frigid air in Alaska and NW Canada. And it is a very persistent signature, it's not going away anytime soon. I don't think anything will change until at least week 2 of January and models tends to rush things.

If we don't get an MJO propagation, the pattern will repeat. It will be building cold over Alaska/NW Canada and spilling into the GOA, and then east of us. We'll see if anything changes mid January but there is no real sign of it. 300+ hours out isn't believable if there isn't a true mechanism for it.

Back in late October and November there were signs of cold for early December because of the Aleutian trough, so 300+ hours out you can see kind of why. Aleutian ridge doesn't translate to cold down here 2 weeks down the road.

I personally disagree with Eric webb on a +TNH pattern we have had. No way it resembles 13-14 winter. I just don't think we will get the pattern set up we need in time to save winter but we will see.

[Stratton23]

Lol we got a long ways to go here

[orangeblood]

Our source region loading up mid month with the coldest anomalies on the planet, the first big piece you want to see in place for a pattern change!

[Stratton23]

orangeblood id figure if you have that much of an expansive and deep arctic airmass sitting over the central plains, it would probably overwhelm the pattern, GEFS does have SE ridging trying to fight it, but we know how that usually turns out lol

[DukeMu]

I expect seasonal temps. beginning the 10th after another warm week...but there is a glimmer of hope...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2026010418/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_63.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2026010412/gem-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/aigfs/2026010418/aigfs_T2ma_namer_62.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026010418/gfs_T2ma_namer_48.png

[Stratton23]

DukeMu links arent working for those images you posted , keeps saying 403 error gateway

[DukeMu]

DukeMu links arent working for those images you posted , keeps saying 403 error gateway

Not for me - they are active. Embedding is a problem on this site.

[Quixotic]

We are totally Fed.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON has snow in south central texas as a strong upper level low develops out in northern mexico/ west texas

[Quixotic]

00z ICON has snow in south central texas as a strong upper level low develops out in northern mexico/ west texas

We are totally Fed.

[wxman57]

Alaska is experiencing one of it's coldest winters (to date) since at least 2011-2012, December was their coldest since 1980 in some places. Man to be up there!

Cold in Alaska generally equals warm for much of the lower 48. I'm still not seeing any significant pattern change in the next two weeks. Cold front Friday night will drop temps to near climatological norms, but nothing more.

We need some rain, I’m personally more concerned about that than cold weather. I’m in a severe drought down here in Wharton County.

Tell me about it (rain). Only 6 inches since August, and most of that in two rain events. Grass in my front yard has dried up and is blowing away here in SW Houston.

[Harp.1]

00z ICON has snow in south central texas as a strong upper level low develops out in northern mexico/ west texas

All I saw was rain. Did I miss something?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 Its a small patch lol, but temperatures are in the upper 30’s to low 40’s so nothing would come of it, would love cold overunning rain though, so much better than mid 80’s and mosquitoes attacking you whenever they get the chance to

[Stratton23]

overnight model trends have been toward a faster retrogradation of the western us ridge , heights start to increase over Alaska around 14-15th per GFS, CMC, AIFS and Euro, yesterdays runs were around the 16-17th so things are moving up in time and no longer getting pushed back, baby steps, but we are certainly headed in the right direction now, Euro looks mighty interesting

[Brent]

The Euro is really close to a big winter storm early next week yeah

That same timeframe that's been on the EPS for a week

You would think that system would have way more precip than it's showing. It's cold enough

[Harp.1]

Can someone post the Euro?

[Brent]

Can someone post the Euro?

This looks pretty close to a textbook winter storm to me. A shocking lack of precip though. That should have been a lot more impressive