2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 1/5/26 has niño 3.4 up from -0.8C of last monday to now at -0.5C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

ECMWF maybe a little bit fast with that proyection?

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/2008164338146697357

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2008163850298810419

[Kingarabian]

I see Eric Webb's point here and he certainly knows his stuff. But I'm going to be cautious on an El Nino call for 2026 until we see more PDO or PMM warming.

That being said GFS has a significant WPAC WWB due to a strong MJO pulse, but is much more bullish than the rest of the models.

[cycloneye]

I see Eric Webb's point here and he certainly knows his stuff. But I'm going to be cautious on an El Nino call for 2026 until we see more PDO or PMM warming.

That being said GFS has a significant WPAC WWB due to a strong MJO pulse, but is much more bullish than the rest of the models.

When will that WWB occur in that model?

[Ntxw]

Pre-conditioning is ripe for El Nino. There are few years we get a strong set of indicators this early where the bar is set higher, last being 2023. It's definitely going to be muddied due to very warm extratropical waters worldwide so the traditional SSTa in other regions likely won't tell the full story. But as far as the equatorial Pacific goes, stage looks set.

I think there are two paths, we may get a ~sort of El Nino like 2014 and then full blown El Nino next year if the rest of the Pacific doesn't play (PMM, PDO etc) and the stronger event being 2027. Though I'd lean more towards a full El Nino this year if had to guess.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2008279548542996914

[Kingarabian]

Would get a 2014 esque subsurface warm pool if this WWB materializes. That being said 2014 had a supportive PDO/PMM.

SOI and Dateline wind pattern will start to matter more during MAM.

[cycloneye]

The PDO data for december is down to -84 from the november one that was at -1.21.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2008533844580876382

[cycloneye]

The Euro AIFS ensembles also with the MJO amplification by mid january.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the WWB.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2008884303237877912

[cycloneye]

Looks like a consensus is building to have El Niño by the summer. NMME joins the chorus.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2008920796605915383

[cycloneye]

For JAS. Almost no greens in MDR, Caribbean Sea and Gulf.

[Ntxw]

Onset WWB is looking stronger by the day...quite impressive. Bar definitely will be set higher.



https://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[cycloneye]

Good thread from Deelan.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/2008969897976713438



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/2008969906222481449



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/2008969912673513554

[Dean_175]

This is just semantics, but:

ONI for OND comes in at -0.5C.... ASO remains -0.4C despite the time filtering. This, along with recent warming of the nino3.4 means that neither 2024 nor 2025 were official La Nina years(at least until either baseline climatology, dataset, or definition changes) despite there being obvious coupling in the atmosphere and cooling in the ocean. DJF and possible NDJ are unlikely to reach the threshold, so 5 consecutive trimonthly requirement won't be met. For now, both years are just going to be considered "sort of" La Ninas.