Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Well there's been some big east coast storms showing up overnight

Maybe they will shift out here

It's definitely showing a lot more cold air nearby around MLK weekend though either way. Finally showing ridging over Alaska which would be the total opposite of the winter so far

The EPS is still not overly impressed with the snow chances though even up here

[Harp.1]

Another quiet morning in here….

[wxman57]

Enjoying the warm weather here in Houston. The big cold front on Saturday may drop our lows into the 40s with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. May be another front around the 17th that could drop temps down close to freezing here. I see the GFS is trying to bring some freezing/frozen precip to NE Texas with the front on the 17th. ECMWF says "nope" to that. EC will probably be right.

[CaptinCrunch]

Enjoying the warm weather here in Houston. The big cold front on Saturday may drop our lows into the 40s with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. May be another front around the 17th that could drop temps down close to freezing here. I see the GFS is trying to bring some freezing/frozen precip to NE Texas with the front on the 17th. ECMWF says "nope" to that. EC will probably be right.

February will bring balance to the Force, for every excessive warm period, there has been a excessive cold period.

I have Spoken

[Ntxw]

Another quiet morning in here….

There is a pretty good set of evidence a colder period will come second half of January. We're just looking for wintry precip which has been hard to come by. This dry stretch has to end...

[gpsnowman]

Enjoying the warm weather here in Houston. The big cold front on Saturday may drop our lows into the 40s with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. May be another front around the 17th that could drop temps down close to freezing here. I see the GFS is trying to bring some freezing/frozen precip to NE Texas with the front on the 17th. ECMWF says "nope" to that. EC will probably be right.

February will bring balance to the Force, for every excessive warm period, there has been a excessive cold period.

I have Spoken

January isn't finished yet. More than likely later in the month then Fab Feb will commence!!! I'm out of town Jan 26-29 so watch a blizzard happen while I'm away.

[Ntxw]

Enjoying the warm weather here in Houston. The big cold front on Saturday may drop our lows into the 40s with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. May be another front around the 17th that could drop temps down close to freezing here. I see the GFS is trying to bring some freezing/frozen precip to NE Texas with the front on the 17th. ECMWF says "nope" to that. EC will probably be right.

February will bring balance to the Force, for every excessive warm period, there has been a excessive cold period.

I have Spoken

January isn't finished yet. More than likely later in the month then Fab Feb will commence!!! I'm out of town Jan 26-29 so watch a blizzard happen while I'm away.

Actually this period leading into early Feb is likely the apex of the cold. The pattern for widespread cold will have been established over the contnent.

15-25th while colder than now, is still not quite mature in terms of coverage like it will be the period after when cross polar flow is established.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS boys have spoken, both have massive Highs over Alaska. I'll take it.
https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/r ... 00reg.html

Using the link above to gauge what the usual upper level pattern looks like, but it's not exact. Any input is welcome!

[Stratton23]

We nearly get a winter storm setup on the 17th on this euro run, chilly run but towards the end of its run it looks even colder with barney colors showing up in the western and central us, could be multiple waves of colder air, with each blast getting progressively colder as cross polar flow becomes entrenched

[Ntxw]

The GFS boys have spoken, both have massive Highs over Alaska. I'll take it.
https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/r ... 00reg.html

Using the link above to gauge what the usual upper level pattern looks like, but it's not exact. Any input is welcome!

This can help break it down a little further via ENSO state.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

[orangeblood]

Ensemble members are starting to light up for southern plains winter storms starting around Jan 18th and beyond. Upper level pattern looks primed for a fun period coming up!

[Stratton23]

orangeblood yup! Ensembles have trended even colder today, that SE ridge is going to get crushed

[Ntxw]

Ensemble members are starting to light up for southern plains winter storms starting around Jan 18th and beyond. Upper level pattern looks primed for a fun period coming up!

EPS, GEFS, GEPS all load up the source region. Coldest and most expansive area of the season...it does look like that cold air is finally going to make a run at the lower 48.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ensembles are very very promising. All in-line with each other.

[Ntxw]

Some good January's in there (and early Feb.) 1962's sprawling near record HP system over North America would be notable. Not a bad subset for arctic outbreaks.

[wxman57]

Looks like Houston is going to get 5" of snow on the 21st. Up to 16 inches of snow across south Louisiana and nearly 20 inches across southern Mississippi. Sorry DFW folks, no snow for you! I'm hogging it all for myself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=scus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026010712&fh=276

[Ntxw]

Back on December 26th...man I really need to start following my own advice . We are much warmer now than seen back then because of the pacific jet, retraction now slowly things looking up with equatorward jet, strong jet east of the divide for cold and storms. The STJ part didn't work out the first week.

I think it will work out, it's just a matter of when it will happen. If the jet extension is strong it will take longer because you will have Pacific air to mix in and we would have to wait for the retraction and we're looking at the last week of Jan. But if the STJ can take over then opportunities for winter storms with just enough cold might be viable.

[HockeyTx82]

Here's something to relax too.

https://youtu.be/wdawijM0POc?si=msH_xmxlL9hd6laK

Getting excited for our chances too!

[Stratton23]

I have a feeling we might start seeing barney colors showing up in the models in the coming week ahead, last nights AI GFS really brought the arctic hammer down across the lower 48

[Ntxw]

This is significant. This WWB/MJO progression is huge. Both seasonally and for 2026, I'm optimistic we may shift the base climate state from the -PDO.