Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

Any observers report graupel or snow grains this morning? As I was sitting at a soccer game this morning it was stratus, howling wind and temp about 40 in McKinney and some white stuff was being blown around but it was impossible to see as it was sparse and the wind was like 30 mph. Probably nothing but not impossible.

[Harp.1]

Just doesn’t appear to be cold enough, folks.

[Stratton23]

Yes it probably wont happen, but the euro continues to show enough moisture around for light snow flurries next weekend, GFS is so very close, we just need marginal cold air, something which global models are not good at handling , its still a very close call on the GFS, 5-10% ensemble members show a chance for some frozen stuff, so obviously its low, but its not zero either, its still 7-8 days out, alot can change

[DukeMu]

Euro 0z has bought into wintry mischief, mostly along and north of Hwy 1*5 with the next big FROPA. Something to look out for.

[Brent]

Man the GFS is really close here Friday night... Come on. Has a stripe of heavier snow just east of me. It's gotten closer since yesterday. I want something inside a week already. So sick of everything being at 200+ hours and trending to 70 degrees

[HockeyTx82]

I thought Evan Andrews retired? He keeps popping on Fox 4 every now and then, he's on this morning.

We need some clown maps and CPC dark color maps so he can remind us what they mean.

[HockeyTx82]

Well he just said that next weekend will probably be the coldest air we see for the rest of the month, with highs in the 40s.

It is written.

[Brent]

Tulsa just went a week without a freeze in the middle of January

We need help

[Ntxw]

It does look like the east coast, especially northeast, may cash in on this upcoming pattern. Our trends have been drying out, which isn't the right direction. For next weekend.

Pesky ridge comes back after the following week probably goes warmer.

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro EPS really is lacking in fridge air after some seasonal cold fronts for Texas.

[Stratton23]

Today might mark the unofficial death of the texas 2025-2026 winter thread lol

[Ntxw]

Get me a Beaufort Sea ridge with sprawling high pressure over this +PNA or whatever we are lined up for. I'm convinced that is how we get arctic outbreaks now.

[Ntxw]

Also it looks like the MJO will be in P6 the next 10 days until 21st-22nd.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw models suggest late january that happens lol with ridging setting up in that area , but i doubt it, this just sucks that the best we can do is seasonal temperatures with this current front

[Ntxw]

Ntxw models suggest late january that happens lol with ridging setting up in that area , but i doubt it, this just sucks that the best we can do is seasonal temperatures with this current front

The lengthy P6 is just another delay. It's not great until P7 and even then I'm sure there is a lag. Have to look towards end of the month.

[Stratton23]

Lol models look semi interesting for late january, but we will see, ice already had lucy pull the football out from beneath my foot with my prediction , so in other words, probably another charlie brown setup

[txtwister78]

Yeah operationals catching up with reality in particular the GFS. No surprise there. This stubborn winter pattern remains locked in for the southern plains.

Still watching that last week of January into early February to see if we can finally get this thing to flip.

[bubba hotep]

Today might mark the unofficial death of the texas 2025-2026 winter thread lol

I'm not canceling winter. We can certainly get winter weather in Texas this time of year, with seasonal cold air. However, there is no denying the lack of sprawling below normal temps in our source region towards the end of the 00z ensemble runs. Ensembles move the coldest air to the other side of the globe towards the end of January. That means we are looking at pushing the window for a big winter event to mid-Feb. That's the 4th quarter for most of Texas.

[Stratton23]

bubba hotep i know im being over dramatic, but seriously we gotta stop pushing things back in time before something can become more believable, its just getting tiring of kicking the can, im normally a glass full kind of guy, but my optimism is just being worn down by models constantly delaying the pattern

[TomballEd]

Today might mark the unofficial death of the texas 2025-2026 winter thread lol

Been a few years but I don't recall Winter 2020-2021 being all that cold until suddenly it was. I don't want it that cold, nor was the freezing mist and drizzle an acceptable substitute for snow. That said, Euro weeklies look normal to above normal after this week. But until El Nino starts to build I'll be alert to low precip but very cold weather later this winter.