93S INVEST 260107 0600 11.1S 72.8E SHEM 20 1009
SIO: DUDZAI - Severe Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S
A new low-pressure system could form in the second half of the week southeast of the Chagos Archipelago. Its risk of developing into a tropical storm becomes low from Friday, January 9 (probability less than 30%), then moderate from Saturday, January 10 (probability of 30 to 60%). This potential system would not threaten any inhabited land in the next 5 days.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 100031Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO
20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON 93S TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 100031Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO
20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON 93S TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression 06-20252026
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.
Position on January 10 at 10 p.m. local time: 13.9 South / 76.4 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2320 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3380 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
Tropical Depression 06-20252026 is located approximately 1400 km northeast of Rodrigues. It is moving south and intensifying. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm status and be named within the next 6 to 12 hours. It could become a severe tropical storm or even a tropical cyclone next Tuesday, then move westward while weakening.
It will remain away from inhabited lands for the next 5 days.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
No influence is expected from this system over the next 5 days for Reunion Island and/or Mayotte.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system over the next 5 days for the other territories of the basin.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.
Position on January 10 at 10 p.m. local time: 13.9 South / 76.4 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2320 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3380 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
Tropical Depression 06-20252026 is located approximately 1400 km northeast of Rodrigues. It is moving south and intensifying. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm status and be named within the next 6 to 12 hours. It could become a severe tropical storm or even a tropical cyclone next Tuesday, then move westward while weakening.
It will remain away from inhabited lands for the next 5 days.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
No influence is expected from this system over the next 5 days for Reunion Island and/or Mayotte.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system over the next 5 days for the other territories of the basin.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: DUDZAI - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUDZAI
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 998 hPa.
Position on January 11 at 04:00 local time: 14.5 South / 76.6 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2310 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3400 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
Tropical Storm Dudzai is located approximately 1400 km northeast of Rodrigues. It is moving south and intensifying. It could reach the stage of a severe tropical storm or even a tropical cyclone next Tuesday, then take a westward trajectory while weakening.
It will remain away from inhabited lands for the next 5 days.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
No influence is expected from this system over the next 5 days for Reunion Island and/or Mayotte.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system over the next 5 days for the other territories of the basin.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 998 hPa.
Position on January 11 at 04:00 local time: 14.5 South / 76.6 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2310 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3400 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
Tropical Storm Dudzai is located approximately 1400 km northeast of Rodrigues. It is moving south and intensifying. It could reach the stage of a severe tropical storm or even a tropical cyclone next Tuesday, then take a westward trajectory while weakening.
It will remain away from inhabited lands for the next 5 days.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
No influence is expected from this system over the next 5 days for Reunion Island and/or Mayotte.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system over the next 5 days for the other territories of the basin.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: DUDZAI - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUDZAI
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 993 hPa.
Position on January 11 at 10 a.m. local time: 14.9 South / 76.8 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2320 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3420 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Moderate tropical storm DUDZAI is located approximately 1500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues. It is moving southeast while intensifying.
- It could reach the stage of a strong tropical storm this Sunday afternoon and then a tropical cyclone by tomorrow, Monday.
- From Wednesday, it could begin to weaken while curving its trajectory westward. Next Friday, it should still be more than 800 km from Rodrigues with its intensity likely downgraded to a moderate tropical storm.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 993 hPa.
Position on January 11 at 10 a.m. local time: 14.9 South / 76.8 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2320 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3420 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Moderate tropical storm DUDZAI is located approximately 1500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues. It is moving southeast while intensifying.
- It could reach the stage of a strong tropical storm this Sunday afternoon and then a tropical cyclone by tomorrow, Monday.
- From Wednesday, it could begin to weaken while curving its trajectory westward. Next Friday, it should still be more than 800 km from Rodrigues with its intensity likely downgraded to a moderate tropical storm.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: DUDZAI - Moderate Tropical Storm
Is trying to form an eye.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: DUDZAI - Severe Tropical Storm
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUDZAI
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 989 hPa.
Position on January 11 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.4 South / 77.0 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2320 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3440 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- DUDZAI continues to intensify and reached the stage of a severe tropical storm this Sunday. The system is located approximately 1500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues and is moving south-southeast to southeast.
- Benefiting from good conditions for its development in the next 2 to 3 days, DUDZAI could reach the stage of a tropical cyclone from tonight and then an intense tropical cyclone around Tuesday.
- From Wednesday, the system could begin to slowly weaken while curving its trajectory westward. Next Friday, it should still be more than 800 km from Rodrigues with a decreasing intensity, but this remains uncertain.
- DUDZAI does not pose a threat to inhabited lands over the next 5 days.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
No influence from this system is expected on Reunion Island and/or Mayotte for the next 5 days.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system on other areas of the basin for the next 5 days.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 989 hPa.
Position on January 11 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.4 South / 77.0 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2320 km to the East-Northeast sector
Distance from Mayotte: 3440 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- DUDZAI continues to intensify and reached the stage of a severe tropical storm this Sunday. The system is located approximately 1500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues and is moving south-southeast to southeast.
- Benefiting from good conditions for its development in the next 2 to 3 days, DUDZAI could reach the stage of a tropical cyclone from tonight and then an intense tropical cyclone around Tuesday.
- From Wednesday, the system could begin to slowly weaken while curving its trajectory westward. Next Friday, it should still be more than 800 km from Rodrigues with a decreasing intensity, but this remains uncertain.
- DUDZAI does not pose a threat to inhabited lands over the next 5 days.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
No influence from this system is expected on Reunion Island and/or Mayotte for the next 5 days.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system on other areas of the basin for the next 5 days.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: SIO: DUDZAI - Severe Tropical Storm
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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ECCE OMNIA NOVA FACIAM (Ap 21,5).
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
ECCE OMNIA NOVA FACIAM (Ap 21,5).
Re: SIO: DUDZAI - Severe Tropical Storm
Now at CI 4.0 as of 1430z, per RSMC La Reunion & the JTWC. I suspect the latter agency at least will upgrade it to 65 kt (1-min) at 18z, which would correspond to a central pressure of 985～987 hPa. The 37 GHz microwave image from about 5 hours ago & the most recent EIR frames strongly suggest that an eye is forming and tightening up.
It'll be interesting to see how this storm develops over the next 24～36 hours, given how quickly it's organised over the past 24.
It'll be interesting to see how this storm develops over the next 24～36 hours, given how quickly it's organised over the past 24.
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