Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
328 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

* An upper-level trough and frontal boundary will increase shower
and thunderstorm activity today.

* There is an elevated flood risk through Tuesday across Puerto
Rico, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is a limited flood risk
through Tuesday, followed by a drying trend for the remainder of
the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail from
midweek onward.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected on Wednesday and
Thursday along the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto
Rico.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

Similar to last night, mostly fair conditions prevailed across the
CWA, with most of the shower activity remaining across local waters
and some moving over portions of eastern Puerto Rico, including
Vieques. Since winds weakened and became light and variable, showers
persisted longer. CWOP and RAW stations reported mid-to-upper 70s
across coastal and lower elevations, and low to mid-60s across
higher elevations. Temperatures should slightly drop near sunrise,
with localized areas dropping into the upper 50s.

The short-term remains on track, with few changes for the end of the
period. Current satellite-derived products show the deep-layered
trough inducing a surface trough north of Hispaniola, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. As the trough approaches the
local area, a resulting cold region should move across the region,
weakening surface winds and becoming light and variable. As the col
moves out of the local area, AGL winds will strengthen and veer from
the northeast. Confidence is increasing between model solutions, as
ensembles are tending towards wetter conditions due to low to mid-
level moisture above climatological normal (between 70 and 80 %) and
high chance of PWAT values above 1.6 inches, not typical for this
time of the year. The latest guidance continues to suggest favorable
dynamics for deep convection, as cooler-than-normal mid-level
temperatures (between -10 and -11 degrees Celsius), and strong upper-
level winds (around 80kt), could lead to forced ascent, cloud
growth, and ventilation. The advective pattern will be the main
driver of showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day,
with the highest chance of flooding tonight into early Tuesday,
moving across local waters and windward sections of the islands.
Afternoon convection over the mountain ranges and southern hills of
Puerto Rico is still very likely, if cloud cover allows it. Due to
weakening winds, showers and thunderstorms will very likely become
stationary, producing higher rainfall accumulations and increased
flood potential. Over the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly ponding of
water over roads, urban, and poorly drained areas, while southern
and eastern Puerto Rico will experience higher accumulations leading
to urban and small stream flooding, with a low chance of flash
flooding. Given the expected conditions, the flood threat will
remain limited to elevated. The lightning risk will remain limited,
though scattered thunderstorms across the local Atlantic waters and
passages cannot be ruled out.

The drier airmass seems to be delayed, expected to filter by late
Tuesday night instead of the afternoon, based on the latest
deterministic guidance of the GFS and AIGFS. Additionally, the 00z
solutions show enhanced upper-level divergence across the CWA,
meaning the presence of "troughiness" and instability aloft. With
the lingering moisture, the chance remains medium to high for the
development of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon,
particularly over portions of interior and southwestern Puerto Rico.
Due to the expected rainfall accumulations and previous shower
activity, the flood potential will increase over the aforementioned
areas, hence, the flood threat will remain limited to elevated. As
the trough migrates eastward, the subsidence side of the trough
should bring more stable conditions across the CWA on Wednesday.
With drier-than-normal conditions (PWATs between 1.0 and 1.2
inches), the probability of precipitation will remain low, bringing
mostly fair conditions across the islands. As winds remain from the
NE through most of the period, temperatures should remain
seasonal.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

A building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
promote moderate to locally fresh east to northeasterly trades
during the long term period. A weak induced surface trough northeast
of the region will bring a brief surge in moisture content late in
the workweek, while a drying trend is expected during the weekend.
At upper levels, a ridge from the southwestern Atlantic and a
developing TUTT-low from the central Atlantic will promote drier
air aloft and more stable conditions in general. Therefore,
showers that form through the period are not expected to produce
heavy rainfall or grow into thunderstorms. These showers will be
mainly driven by the increasing trades, favoring an advective
pattern at night, with showers moving briefly at times across the
USVI and along the east and north sections of PR. Shallow
afternoon convection is expected over the Cordillera and southern
sections of PR, but the flood risk will remain low as rainfall
accumulations are not expected to exceed an inch of rain per day.
A TUTT induced surface trough is expected to increase moisture
content from the northeast once again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR conds should prevail most of the time across all TAF sites,
though a sfc trof approaching the CWA will bring -TSRA/+TSRA that
will lead to VCTS for most terminals aft 05/13z. PROB30s for JPS,
IST, and ISX btwn 05/18-21z, and for JSJ btwn 06/03-06z due -TSRA
reducing CIGs/VIS and resulting in brf MVFR conds. Winds from the NE
will slgtly increase, btwn 6 - 10 kt, around 05/13-14z, becoming
light and VRB once again after 05/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

A frontal boundary with an associated polar trough approaching
the local waters will promote light northerly to northeasterly
winds, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
through at least Tuesday. A long period northerly swell is
expected to arrive by midweek, building seas up to 6 feet and
occasionally higher, particularly across the Atlantic waters and
the Caribbean Passages. Small craft operators should continue to
monitor forecasts for potential changes in marine conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

A long period northerly swell will cause rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents by midweek across the north-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico. Breaking waves could range between 6 and 8 feet,
and occasionally higher, particularly on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the
risk will be moderate, except along the southern beaches where
the risk will remain low throughout the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

* Northerly winds and shower activity will prevail today as a
front moves over the region.

* Weather conditions will improve by this evening after the frontal
passage, with drier, cooler air leading to below-normal minimum
temperatures early Wednesday morning.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected on Wednesday and
Thursday along the northwest to northeast beaches of PR, with a
moderate risk for the north and east-facing beaches in the
USVI.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity persisted yesterday afternoon and
overnight, with the highest rainfall accumulations over portions of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based on WSR-88D rainfall
estimates, these areas received between 1 and 2 inches, higher in
localized areas. Taking a look at the 24-hour precipitation reports
from CWOP, ASOS, and RAW stations across the CWA, the highest
accumulations in Puerto Rico were reported at Cayey and Guayama
(1.64 and 2.16 inches, respectively). Meanwhile, across the U.S.
Virgin Islands, a station near the Henry E. Rohlsen International
Airport reported 0.95 inches. Nevertheless, no flash flood reports
were received. Although cloud cover persisted during the night,
temperatures decreased as stations at lower elevations reported low
to mid-70s, while those at higher elevations reported 60s. With
winds with a northerly component and cloud cover diminishing,
temperatures will continue to decrease, with localized areas at
higher elevations reaching the upper 50s.

Some changes were introduced to the short term forecast, as the
unsettled conditions should continue today, Three Kings Day, and
gradually improve tomorrow and Thursday. Current satellite-derived
products show the frontal boundary associated with the polar trough
across the CWA, producing showers and isolated thunderstorms. In
terms of instability, today is the best chance of thunderstorm
development, as lingering upper-level divergence, cooler than normal
mid-level temperatures (around -10 degrees Celsius), and an upper-
level jet streak producing winds between 60 and 80 kt, allowing
cloud growth and ventilation. Based on the latest HIRES models, the
advective pattern is expected to continue today, with showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving over windward sections across the
islands. For the afternoon convection, the latest solutions suggest
less widespread shower and thunderstorm activity compared to
yesterday, localized over portions of southwestern Puerto Rico. As
surface winds will begin to increase and low to mid-level moisture
should gradually decrease (700 - 500 mb RH below 20%) throughout the
day, rainfall accumulations should remain limited, leading to
ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, with a low
chance of urban and small stream flooding. Hence, the flooding risk
will now remain limited over northern, southwestern, and eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

As the front moves away from the region, a surface high pressure
building in the western Atlantic will promote winds from the N-NE,
with a drier air mass filtering into the region. Based on the latest
model guidance, PWAT values are expected to plummet below
climatological normal values by late tonight (PWAT between 1.1 and
1.3 inches). Additionally, the CWA is expected to be under the
subsident side of the upper-level trough, bringing more stable
conditions aloft. Hence, shower activity should remain limited on
Wednesday. Moisture content will gradually increase to more typical
values (PWAT between 1.2 and 1.4 inches) as a surface trough lingers
northeast of the region, increasing the frequency of isolated
showers over windward sections. Nevertheless, conditions should be
unfavorable for the development of thunderstorm activity. Hence, the
flood and lightning threat is not expected for the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

A surface high pressure moving from the western Atlantic into the
central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh east to
northeasterly trades during the long term period. A weak induced
surface trough northeast of the region will bring at times patches
of low-level moisture over the islands, particularly on Friday and
Saturday. During the second half of the forecast period, at the
upper levels, a ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and a
developing TUTT-low from the north central Atlantic will promote
drier air aloft and more stable conditions in general. Therefore,
showers that form through the period are not expected to produce
heavy rainfall or grow into thunderstorms. These showers will be
mainly driven by the increasing northeasterly trades, favoring an
advective pattern at night, with showers moving at times across
the USVI and along the east and north sections of PR. Shallow
afternoon convection is expected over the Cordillera and the
southern sections of PR, but the flood risk will remain low as
rainfall accumulations are not expected to exceed an inch of rain
per day.

By early next week, global models now have the strong TUTT-low
and induced surface trough a little farther away of the islands.
This solution now suggest a drier weather trend than previously
expected, with the GFS indicating a minimum in precipitable water
content of 1.00-1.25 inches on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

Mainly VFR conds expcd across all TAF sites, with VCTS and brf prds
of -RA for ISX and IST due nearby -TSRA/+TSRA throughout the day.
Winds from the N-NE will increase btwn 10 - 12 kt, with gusts up to
20 kt over IST aft 06/13-14z. PROB30s for JSJ and JPS today btwn 18 -
21z due -TSRA reducing CIGs/VIS and leading to tempo MVFR conds.
Winds will once again weaken and become light and VRB aft
06/22-23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

Light to moderate northerly winds will continue today as a frontal
boundary moves across the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to continue through most of the morning hours. A long
period northerly swell is expected to arrive on Wednesday, building
seas up to 6 feet, particularly across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and weak
induced surface troughs northeast of the region will promote moderate
east to northeast trades for the rest of the period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

A long period northerly swell will cause rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents across the north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, particularly on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the risk of rip
currents will be moderate, except along the southern beaches of
the islands where the risk will remain low throughout the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
342 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected today and Thursday
along the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico. A
moderate to risk will continue along the the north and east-
facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Drier air behind the frontal boundary will continue to filter
into the area today, with few passing showers reaching Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands, mostly during the morning and
evening hours.

* Seasonal temperatures are anticipated throughout the week with
highs in the low to mid 80s along the lower elevations of the
islands, and the mid to upper 70s in the higher mountains.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Life-threatening rip currents along the northern beaches will be the
main hazard today and tomorrow.

Partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands during the
overnight hours. Passing showers were noted along the northern and
eastern sections of the islands, with Doppler radar estimates of
half an inch of rain over Manati and San Juan. Minimum temperatures
were from the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower elevations of
the islands to the upper 50s and mid-60s across the higher
elevations of Puerto Rico. The wind was light with a northerly
component.

For the rest of the short-term period, a similar weather pattern is
expected as a surface trough east of the region and east to
northeasterly winds brings an influx of shallow moisture content
over the area. The overall precipitable water content is expected to
range between 1.20-1.40 inches, which goes from the 25th to the 50th
percentile for this time of the year. At the mid-and upper-levels, a
ridge is expected to slowly build from the southwestern Atlantic,
promoting drier air intrusion aloft. However, only slightly warmer
500mb temperatures (around minus 7/8C) are expected, which are still
within normal seasonal levels. In summary, showers are expected each
day, and under light to moderate east to northeasterly trades,
passing showers are expected at times along the northern and eastern
sections of the islands. Shallow afternoon convection is expected to
develop over portions of the Cordillera and SW PR each afternoon,
where rainfall accumulations up to an inch and locally higher are
possible, particularly on Thursday.

In term of temperatures, daily highs are expected to range from the
mid-to upper-80s along the southern coast of PR to the low and mid-
80s across the rest of the lower elevations of the islands. Due to
the expected showers and clouds at night, seasonal temperatures are
expected at night, with minimums ranging from the upper 50s across
the higher elevations of PR to the low 70s across coastal areas.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A strong surface high-pressure system will shift from the western to
the central Atlantic during the first half of the long-term period,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through
midweek. The forecast remains on track as a weak surface-induced
trough brings patches of moisture into the region on Saturday;
however, precipitable water values will remain at normal to slightly
below climatological normals, ranging between 1.15 and 1.35 inches.
Despite these relatively dry conditions, the combination of east-
northeast flow, daytime heating, and local effects will likely
trigger afternoon showers across portions of southwestern Puerto
Rico, though rainfall accumulations should remain below 1.00 inch.

By Monday and continuing through midweek, upper-level dynamics will
shift as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and a
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) develops over the north-
central Atlantic. These features will promote drier air aloft and
generally more stable conditions. Consequently, shower activity
during this period will be driven primarily by the northeasterly
trade winds, favoring an advective pattern that brings passing
showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and northern and eastern Puerto
Rico, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, -SHRA embedded in the trades
could move at times in and around TJSJ/TIST. Also, iso/sct shra and
sct/bkn cigs btw FL030-FL060 are expected near TJPS btw 07/17z-21z.
NE winds up to 12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts
expected aft 07/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell is expected to spread across the
Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages, resulting in building
seas up to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution under these
conditions. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, along
with weak induced surface troughs northeast of the region, will
promote moderate east to northeast trade winds today through the
the rest of the week.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A long-period northerly swell will cause rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents across the north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico today through at least Thursday. Elsewhere, the risk of rip
currents will be moderate, except along the southern beaches of
the islands where the risk will remain low throughout the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico through this afternoon due to
a persistent northeasterly swell across the local Atlantic
waters. A moderate risk will continue for north and east-
facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Expect passing morning showers across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and afternoon showers
across the interior and southwest Puerto Rico.

* Seasonal temperatures will prevail across the islands through
the next several days, with cooler conditions continuing in the
higher elevations.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands during
the overnight hours. Passing showers were noted mainly across the
regional waters, and briefly along the northern and eastern sections
of Puerto Rico. Little to no rainfall was observed across the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 60s to low
70s across the lower elevations of the islands to the upper 50s and
mid-60s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Mostly light
winds prevailed over land areas with a northeasterly component and
gusts around 12 mph.

A weak, broad trough east/northeast of the region is expected to
increase the overall moisture content today. However, pockets of dry
air will also be carried by the light to moderate east to northeast
trades. This weather pattern will continue during the next few days,
and as the trough pulls further into the central Atlantic, a surface
high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote
stronger winds by Saturday and increase the frequency of passing
showers across the islands in general. Therefore, expect showers to
move at times during the nighttime across the USVI, and
east/northern sections of PR during the night. In the afternoon, the
available limited moisture content in combination with daytime
heating and the sea breeze convergence will cause showers to develop
over portions of the Cordillera, including the southern and western
slopes.

Seasonal temperatures will prevail throughout the short-term period,
resulting in generally pleasant conditions across the islands. High
temperatures will remain near climatological normals. However,
slightly warmer temperatures are expected each day along the
southern portions of PR, where max temps could reach the upper 80s.
Cooler conditions are expected at night under mostly clear skies
across the higher elevations and valleys of PR.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through late Tuesday
night. From Wednesday onward, winds are expected to shift from the
east as the high pressure migrates toward the eastern Atlantic. At
the mid-to-upper levels, a ridge will build over the southwestern
Atlantic while a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) begins to
develop over the central Atlantic, northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest precipitable water
(PWAT) values will remain near normal on Sunday before dropping
below seasonal averages by Monday (0.85 to 1.21 inches). Despite the
strength of the TUTT low to the northeast, dry air intrusion
associated with the mid-to-upper level ridge will promote stable
conditions aloft. This will inhibit shower development across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the period.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near seasonal averages.
Consequently, expect maximum temperatures in the low to mid-80s
across lower elevations and in the mid to upper 70s across higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of -RA/VCSH are
expected thru the early morning hours at TJSJ/TJBQ. Locally induced
SHRA over central PR, may cause tempo MVFR cigs at TJPS btw 08/17z-
21z. E-ENE winds up to 12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts expected aft 08/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell will continue to spread across
the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages through today,
resulting in building seas between 4 to 6 feet. A surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic, along with weak induced
surface troughs northeast of the region, will promote moderate
east to northeast trade winds today through the the rest of the
week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will continue across the local beaches
through at least this afternoon due to a spreading northeasterly
swell affecting the Atlantic waters. This swell will maintain
life- threatening rip current conditions along the northwest to
northeast-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, where a High Rip Current
Risk remains in effect until later today. Life-threatening rip
currents are possible along north and east-facing beaches of the
U.S. Virgin Islands, where a moderate rip current risk is
expected.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 090842
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
442 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

* Showers and localized flooding risk this afternoon: Afternoon
showers are expected across western Puerto Rico, with brief,
heavy rainfall that may cause ponding in poorly drained and
urban areas.

* Pleasant overnight temperatures: Below-normal to seasonably
cool minimum temperatures are expected across Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands overnight and early morning.

* Moderate rip current risk: Rip currents are possible along the
Atlantic-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St Thomas, St
John, and the north and east-facing beaches in St Croix.
Hazardous swimming conditions are possible at exposed beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Overnight, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced calm
weather under clear to partly cloudy skies. While passing showers
were observed across the region, most remained over the Atlantic and
Caribbean waters. A few reached portions of St. Croix, resulting in
minimal rainfall accumulation. Overnight lows ranged from the upper
60s to low 70s across lower elevations, while higher elevations in
Puerto Rico observed temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Winds remained light and variable throughout the night.

A weak surface trough lingering northeast of the region will
continue to bring trade wind showers into the islands. Recent
precipitable water (PWAT) suggests moisture levels remaining near or
slightly below seasonal levels (1.20 to 1.45 inches) through early
next week.

Today, passing trade wind showers will continue to affect windward
sections of the islands. During the afternoon, limited moisture
combined with daytime heating and sea breeze convergence will likely
trigger showers across the interior and western to southwestern
Puerto Rico. This weather pattern is expected to persist through
Saturday.

By Sunday, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will build over the
southwestern Atlantic, while a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) begins to develop over the central Atlantic, northeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Consequently, patches of low-level moisture will
continue to drift over the islands, bringing morning showers and
potential afternoon convection over interior and southwestern Puerto
Rico. As temperatures at the 500 mb level drop to approximately -
10°C, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon hours.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level are expected to remain near
climatological normals. Daytime highs will reach the low to mid-80s
across lower elevations and the mid to upper 70s across the higher
elevations of Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Looking ahead into early next week, a deep-layer mid-to-upper-
level trough is forecast to amplify over the Atlantic Ocean east
of the northeast Caribbean on Monday. This feature will migrate
further into the Central Atlantic by Tuesday or Wednesday. As it
moves, it will generate surface disturbances that the prevailing
trade winds will advect into Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands, resulting in periods of shower activity. Simultaneously,
a mid-to-upper-level ridge will build over the Northeast
Caribbean. This feature is expected to limit the vertical
development of showers and promote subsidence aloft (sinking air)
due to the presence of a dry air mass.

Model discrepancies exist around Thursday, January 15, regarding
the strength of the ridge versus the influence of a secondary
trough. ECMWF 09/00z suggests a mid-to-upper-level ridge holding
firm over the region, maintaining suppressed convective activity.
GFS 09/00z proposes a mid-to-upper-level trough swinging by the
area, which would displace the ridge and provide more favorable
upper-level dynamics for precipitation. However, the GFS also
indicates an increase in mid-to-upper-level cloud cover, which
may inhibit widespread vertical development despite the favorable
dynamics.

Given the aforementioned weather pattern, residents and visitors
in PR and the USVI can anticipate brief periods of passing
showers, especially in the evening and early morning hours in
windward locations and in the afternoon in leeward locations
(western and interior PR).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals during
the forecast period. Brief VCSH/SHRA are expected this morning at
TJSJ/TIST/TISX aft 09/13Z-14Z. Locally induced SHRA over central and
southwestern PR, may cause brief tempo MVFR cigs at TJPS btw 09/17Z-
21Z. E-ENE winds btw 08 to 14 kt with sea breeze variations and
higher gusts expected aft 09/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell continues to spread across the
Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages, gradually subsiding
today. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, along with
weak induced surface troughs northeast of the region, will promote
moderate east to northeast trade winds today through the the rest of
the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is in place along the Atlantic-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico, St. Thomas, and St. John, as well
as the north- and east-facing beaches of St. Croix. Under these
conditions, rip currents are possible, particularly at exposed
beaches, and can pose a hazard to swimmers. Beachgoers are urged
to exercise caution, remain near lifeguarded areas when available,
and avoid entering the water if conditions appear unsafe.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

* Swim with caution: A moderate risk of rip currents continues
along Atlantic-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as
well as the north- and east-facing beaches of St. Croix, with
the risk expanding to western Puerto Rico and the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands on Sunday. Dangerous swimming conditions are
possible at exposed beaches.

* Passing showers, localized flooding risk: A typical trade-wind
pattern will bring passing showers to windward areas during the
mornings and isolated to locally scattered afternoon downpours,
mainly across south-central interior to southwestern Puerto
Rico. Localized flooding impacts are possible, especially across
the southwestern quadrant, though widespread flooding is not
expected.

* cool nights, typical warmth by day: Slightly below-normal to
seasonably cool overnight temperatures will continue across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while daytime highs
remain warm but near typical values for this time of
year.Hazardous swimming conditions are possible at exposed
beaches.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Today, winds were generally light, with local sea-breeze
circulations producing briefly moderate breezes along exposed
coastal areas. A patch of low-level moisture moved across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and into eastern Puerto Rico, bringing isolated to
scattered showers and trade-wind streamers. Radar estimates
showed up to around one-half inch of rainfall across parts of the
USVI and northeastern Puerto Rico, with no significant impacts
observed. Morning lows dropped into the upper 50s across higher
elevations and the mid-70s across the USVI, while afternoon highs
reached the lower 70s in higher terrain and the mid-80s in coastal
and urban areas.

Tonight, trade winds will increase to a moderate ENE–NE breeze as
a building surface high shifts eastward over the western-central
Atlantic, maintaining a steady influx of low-level moisture. This
will result in patches of clouds and fast-moving trade-wind
showers, mainly affecting the USVI, Vieques, Culebra, and northern
and eastern Puerto Rico, with brief inland spillover at times. A
departing upper-level trough will place the region under
increasing subsidence, promoting mid-level drying and limited
instability. As a result, showers will be brief and become more
isolated overnight, with no significant rainfall expected. Patchy
fog may redevelop late tonight, mainly across higher elevations
and interior valleys. Overnight lows will again fall into the mid
to lower 50s in the mountains, with milder lows across lower
elevations. Land-based hazard risks will remain low to none
tonight.

A typical trade-wind pattern will persist through Saturday and
Sunday, bringing mostly favorable weather for outdoor activities,
except for brief showers. Morning showers will favor windward
areas, with isolated and very localized afternoon showers possible
over south-central to southwestern Puerto Rico due to daytime
heating and sea-breeze convergence. The driest conditions are
expected early Sunday morning. Later Sunday, a mid-level low and
an associated surface-induced trough approaching from the
northeast will gradually increase moisture, leading to more
cloudiness and scattered showers, along with a brief easterly wind
shift before ENE–NE flow returns. Temperatures will be near
normal Saturday, become slightly warmer late Saturday night into
Sunday, with cooler nighttime lows returning Sunday night. Aside
from a localized, limited excessive rainfall risk, overall hazard
risks will remain low to none, though continued limited rainfall
may allow dry conditions to persist or worsen, increasing
localized drought and fire-weather concerns.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Looking ahead into early next week, a deep-layer mid-to-upper-
level trough is forecast to amplify over the Atlantic Ocean east
of the northeast Caribbean on Monday. This feature will migrate
further into the Central Atlantic by Tuesday or Wednesday. As it
moves, it will generate surface disturbances that the prevailing
trade winds will advect into Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands, resulting in periods of shower activity. Simultaneously,
a mid-to-upper-level ridge will build over the Northeast
Caribbean. This feature is expected to limit the vertical
development of showers and promote subsidence aloft (sinking air)
due to the presence of a dry air mass.

Model discrepancies exist around Thursday, January 15, regarding
the strength of the ridge versus the influence of a secondary
trough. ECMWF 09/00z suggests a mid-to-upper-level ridge holding
firm over the region, maintaining suppressed convective activity.
GFS 09/00z proposes a mid-to-upper-level trough swinging by the
area, which would displace the ridge and provide more favorable
upper-level dynamics for precipitation. However, the GFS also
indicates an increase in mid-to-upper-level cloud cover, which
may inhibit widespread vertical development despite the favorable
dynamics.

Given the aforementioned weather pattern, residents and visitors
in PR and the USVI can anticipate brief periods of passing
showers, especially in the evening and early morning hours in
windward locations and in the afternoon in leeward locations
(western and interior PR).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals. Brief
VCSH/SHRA will continue to affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ as
trade-wind showers move inland from the waters. Locally induced
SHRA over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico may cause brief
MVFR cigs at TJPS between 16–20Z each day. Winds will be E–ENE
8–14 kt, becoming light and variable (3–6 kt) after 09/22Z, then
increasing again to a moderate breeze (10–14 kt) with sea-breeze
variations after 10/13Z.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell across the Atlantic waters and
local Caribbean passages will continue to subside tonight. A
surface high over the western-central Atlantic, along with weak
surface troughing northeast of the region, will promote moderate
ENE–NE trade winds tonight, becoming more easterly during the
weekend. Marine conditions are expected to remain generally
favorable for small craft, though choppy seas may develop across
the Atlantic waters on Sunday, especially as the trades
strengthen.&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect for Atlantic-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as north- and
east-facing beaches of St. Croix, where life-threatening rip
currents are possible, particularly along exposed beaches. The
moderate rip current risk may expand to western Puerto Rico and
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands by Sunday as winds and swell
conditions evolve. Beachgoers are urged to exercise caution, stay
near lifeguarded beaches when available, and avoid entering the
water if conditions appear unsafe.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
513 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

* A moderate risk of rip currents continues along the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra today.

* A typical trade-wind pattern will bring passing showers to
windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
mainly overnight and early in the morning, with afternoon
showers, especially across southwestern Puerto Rico. Localized
ponding or minor flooding is possible in poor drainage areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Near-seasonal temperatures will continue across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands, with comfortable daytime temperatures
for outdoor activities through around mid-week, then guidance
indicates above-normal temperatures for end of the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

Southern and western Puerto Rico, as well as St. Croix, observed
mostly clear skies with pleasant temperatures. In contrast, the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands and the north and east Puerto Rico
experienced occasional fast-moving showers, producing periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall overnight. Minimum temperatures
ranged from the low 70s across coastal areas to the low 60s, and
locally lower, across interior valleys and mountainous regions.
Winds were generally from the northeast at around 5 mph, with
localized land-breeze variations.

A mid- to upper-level trough continues to move eastward away from
the northeastern Caribbean into the Atlantic, periodically
perturbing the trade wind flow. These perturbations will support
intermittent moisture surges, resulting in passing showers across
windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the
next few days. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure north of the
region will shift farther east as a weak, surface-induced trough
moves through the local area. This pattern will allow low-level
winds to veer slightly more easterly at times; however, a prevailing
northeasterly steering flow is expected to persist.

Under this synoptic setup, a typical trade-wind advective pattern is
anticipated today through Tuesday. Evening and morning showers will
mainly affect windward and coastal areas, followed by afternoon
convection driven by local effects, primarily across western Puerto
Rico each day, where we cannot rule out one or two thunderstorms.
Rainfall impacts are expected to remain limited overall, though
brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible
with passing showers, particularly along windward locations. Across
western Puerto Rico, localized ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas may occur during afternoon convection. While
widespread flooding is not anticipated, isolated urban flooding
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

During the long-term period, a deep-layer mid to upper-level
trough will continue shifting eastward away from the Lesser
Antilles, while a weak mid to upper-level ridge builds over the
northeastern Caribbean. Precipitable water values are forecast to
range between 1.4 and 1.9 inches, near to above climatological
normal for this time of year, with peak moisture expected on
Friday.

Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast
through Friday, then shift to the east-northeast on Saturday and
Sunday while increasing in speed. Model guidance suggests a
frontal boundary will remain north of the region, while a pre-
frontal trough may enhance moisture convergence and atmospheric
instability, supporting a wetter pattern around Friday and again
next Saturday. At this time, Friday appears to present the highest
rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly across
western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorm
activity cannot be ruled out as mid-level temperatures cool, with
500 mb temperatures decreasing from near -5 degrees C on Wednesday
to around -8 degrees C by the end of the week.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal temperatures
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the
long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. However, occasional -SHRA/SHRA
will move across JSJ/IST/ISX throughout the day, followed by some
activity near JPS during the afternoon. This activity will bring
brief MVFR conditions at these sites. We cannot rule out one or two
TSRA/-TSRA across the interior and SW-PR between 11/16-23z. A
similar weather pattern is possible for tomorrow. Winds will be calm
to light and variable each night, returning from the NE/E at 10-15kt
with higher gusts, and a sea breeze aft 13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

A surface high pressure moving eastward across the western Atlantic,
combined with a weak surface trough northeast of the region, will
maintain moderate east to northeast winds across the local waters
through the middle of next week. This pattern will support passing
trade-wind showers, mainly across the Atlantic waters, with occasional
showers also moving through the Caribbean passages at times. Wind
flow becoming east to southeast around Thursday and Friday. Toward
the latter part of the workweek and into the weekend, strengthening
winds and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell may result in
choppy and potentially hazardous marine conditions. Mariners are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today, a moderate risk of rip currents is in place for the
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra,
with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar conditions are expected
to persist over the next few days, with the moderate risk at
times extending to the northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk indicates that life-
threatening rip currents are possible within the surf zone.

A low risk will prevail across southern, more protected areas;
however, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the overall risk is
low. For more location-specific information, continue to monitor
weather.gov/beach/sju.

By next weekend, conditions may deteriorate, with the potential
for a high risk of rip currents to return.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

* Localized flooding is possible from passing showers that may
bring brief, heavy rain, especially overnight and in the
mornings in windward areas of Puerto Rico and U.S. virgin
Islands, and in the afternoons in western Puerto Rico. This
could lead to ponding on roads and isolated flooding in urban
areas and small streams.

* Moderate risk of rip current: life-threatening rip currents are
expected along the northwest, north, and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the workweek.
The risk may increase this weekend, becoming high due to
stronger winds and a northwesterly swell.

* Comfortable to near-seasonal temperatures will continue through
midweek across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with
cooler nights through Tuesday morning, followed by a warming
trend and above-normal temperatures expected toward the end of
the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mainland Puerto Rico experienced generally quiet weather conditions
through most of the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a trade wind
perturbation brought passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands
overnight, with some activity briefly reaching eastern Puerto Rico;
however, most of the shower activity remained over the surrounding
coastal waters. Winds were mainly from the east to east-northeast at
5 to 10 mph. Skies remained mostly clear across mainland Puerto
Rico, while partly to mostly cloudy conditions prevailed over the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Overnight and early morning temperatures ranged
from the low 70s to the upper 60s along the coast, dropping to the
upper 50s to the low 60s across the interior valleys and mountainous
regions.

As a mid- to upper-level trough continues to move eastward into
the central Atlantic, a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to
gradually build over the northeastern Caribbean over the next few
days. At the surface, however, a weak induced trough will maintain
periods of showery weather across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands today and tomorrow. This pattern will keep total
precipitable water values near or briefly above typical January
levels, as suggested by model guidance and supported by satellite
observations.

Under this weather pattern, residents and visitors will observe
periods of sunshine; however, the advection of clouds within the
trade wind flow will result in passing showers. Periods of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall are most likely during the overnight and
early morning hours across the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward
areas of Puerto Rico, followed by limited afternoon convection
mainly across western Puerto Rico. Moisture is expected to decrease
somewhat by Tuesday, resulting in fewer showers. However, on
Wednesday, another trade wind perturbation is forecast to increase
available moisture once again. Enhanced by low-level convergence and
local orographic effects, this could lead to ponding of water on
roads and in poorly drained areas, particularly across eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Overall, a limited risk of flooding is expected, though isolated
instances of urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out on
any given day. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay
informed by following the latest forecasts and updates in case
conditions change.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

During Thursday, a deep-layer mid to upper-level trough will be
well east of the Lesser Antilles, while a mid level ridge persists
over the northeastern Caribbean. Trade wind showers will continue
to affect the region on Thursday, with limited afternoon convection
expected across western and northwestern Puerto Rico. On Friday,
model guidance suggests a frontal boundary will remain north of
the region, while a pre-frontal trough may enhance moisture
convergence and atmospheric instability, supporting a wetter
pattern on Friday. At this time, Friday appears to present the
highest rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly
across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated
thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out as mid-level temperatures
cool, with 500 mb temperatures decreasing from near -4 degrees C
on Wednesday to around -7 degrees C by latter part of the week.
Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.5 and
1.8 inches from Thursday through Saturday, near to above
climatological normal for this time of year, with peak moisture
expected on Friday.

Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast
at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph through Friday, then shift
to the east-northeast from Saturday through Monday while increasing
to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Breezy to locally windy
conditions are anticipated, particularly on Saturday, which may
result in loose outdoor items being blown around, especially
across exposed and coastal areas.

From Sunday through Monday, precipitable water values are expected
to decrease to between 1.1 and 1.5 inches, with patches of near-
average moisture moving across the region, promoting variable but
seasonable weather conditions with passing trade wind showers and
limited convective development.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate slightly above-normal
temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
throughout the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conds expected across the terminals today. Passing -SHRA/SHRA
will affect TJSJ, TIST, and TISX at times, with additional activity
possible near TJPS during the afternoon, producing brief MVFR
conditions. There is a limited chance of -TSRA across interior and
western Puerto Rico between 16Z-23Z. A similar pattern, with less
activity, is expected on Tuesday. Winds will be calm to light and
variable overnight, becoming ENE-E at 10-15 kt after 13Z with
higher gusts and local sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

A surface high pressure moving eastward across the central Atlantic,
combined with a weak surface trough northeast of the region, will
maintain gentle to moderate east to northeast winds through mid-
week, then shifting from the east to southeast by Thursday and
Friday. This pattern will support passing trade-wind showers, mainly
across the Atlantic waters, with occasional showers also moving
through the Caribbean passages. By the end of the week into the
weekend, strengthening northeasterly winds and the arrival of a
long-period northerly swell will likely result in choppy and
potentially hazardous marine conditions. Mariners are advised to
continue monitoring the forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

The moderate risk of rip currents continues today for the
northwestern, northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well
as Culebra and USVI, with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar
conditions are expected to persist most of the workweek. A
moderate risk indicates that life-threatening rip currents are
possible within the surf zone, and beachgoers should exercise
caution at all times.

A low risk will prevail across southern, more protected areas;
however, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the overall risk is
low. For more location-specific information, continue to monitor
weather.gov/beach/sju.

By next weekend, conditions will likely deteriorate due to
increasing winds and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell,
with the potential for a high risk of rip currents to return
across most local beaches of Puerto Rico and USVI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026

Recent wetting rains have provided temporary relief across fire-
prone areas in southern Puerto Rico, however, longer-term dryness
and rainfall deficits are expected to persist. While KBDI values
have decreased at some sites, fuels remain locally elevated,
especially across southern Puerto Rico and Vieques, and isolated
wildfire activity continues to be detected by satellite.
Northeasterly winds may support additional showers through
tomorrow, but winds are expected to shift to east-southeast from
Wednesday through Friday. This will favor drier conditions, with
pockets of below-normal moisture possible during peak fire weather
hours. Although early morning rainfall may help delay fire
potential on some days, locally elevated fire danger remains,
warranting continued monitoring.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

* Passing trade-wind showers continue: Brief showers will affect
windward and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, mainly during the morning and evening hours, with limited
afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico. Periods of sunshine
will continue between showers.

* Localized flooding remains possible: While widespread flooding is
not expected, increased moisture later in the week may cause
ponding on roads and isolated urban or small stream flooding,
especially across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Moderate rip current risk: life-threatening rip currents are
expected along north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through the workweek. The risk may
increase this weekend, becoming high due to stronger winds and a
northwesterly swell.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mainland Puerto Rico experienced calm weather overnight, while a
trade wind disturbance brought passing showers to the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with some reaching eastern Puerto Rico. Winds were from the
east at 5 to 10 mph. Skies were mostly clear in mainland Puerto
Rico, but partly to mostly cloudy in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Overnight temperatures ranged from the low 70s to the upper 60s
along the coast and from the upper 50s to the low 60s in the
interior valleys and mountains.

Weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
will remain influenced by a broad surface high pressure system
extending from the central Atlantic into the Caribbean, along with a
weak induced surface trough north of the region. This setup will
maintain an east-northeasterly low-level wind flow, allowing shallow
moisture confined mainly below 3 km to advect into the area and
produce passing showers, particularly during the morning and evening
hours.

As the surface trough lifts out, winds will gradually veer to the
east. This will allow modest moisture, with precipitable water
values ranging between 1.3 and 1.5 inches, to continue filtering
into the islands, supporting additional shower activity. However, a
persistent mid-level ridge over the region will limit vertical
development, resulting in a typical trade-wind pattern characterized
by brief showers affecting coastal and windward areas during the
morning and evening hours, followed by limited afternoon convection
mainly across western Puerto Rico.

On Wednesday, low-level winds are expected to veer further as the
surface pattern responds to a frontal boundary exiting the eastern
United States. This change will favor a slight increase in tropical
moisture and cloudiness, with shower activity becoming more
noticeable in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal values.

By Thursday, a deep-layer mid- to upper-level trough will move
further eastward of the Lesser Antilles, while a mid-level ridge
continues to dominate the northeastern Caribbean. Under this
pattern, trade-wind showers will persist across the region as a
surge of moisture increases Precipitable Water to 1.5 to 1.75
inches. Enhanced by low-level convergence and local orographic
effects, this could lead to ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas, particularly across eastern Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasionally throughout the day.

Overall, a limited risk of flooding is expected, though isolated
instances of urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out on
any given day. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay
informed by following the latest forecasts and updates in case
conditions change.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

On Friday, model guidance indicates that a frontal boundary will
remain north of the region, while a pre-frontal trough may enhance
low-level moisture convergence and atmospheric instability,
supporting a wetter pattern. Friday currently appears to have the
greatest rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly
across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Precipitable water values are
forecast to range between 1.4 and 1.9 inches from Friday through
Saturday, near to above climatological normals for this time of
year.

Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast
at 10 to 15 mph on Friday, then shift to the east to northeast by
Friday night into Saturday while increasing to 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Breezy to locally windy conditions are
expected Saturday and early Sunday, which may lead to loose outdoor
items being blown around, especially across exposed and coastal
areas.

From Sunday through Tuesday, precipitable water values are
expected to decrease to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches, with patches
of near-average moisture moving across the region. This will
support more variable but seasonable conditions, with passing
trade wind showers and limited convective development each
afternoon. No flooding concerns at this time.

A subtropical jet streak near 250 mb will establish a favorable
dynamic pattern from Tuesday night into Wednesday, supporting
upper-level divergence and an induced surface trough. As a result,
an increase in the frequency of showers is expected across the
forecast area under a northeasterly low-level wind flow. Continue
to monitor the forecast updates.

Temperature-wise, ensemble guidance continues to indicate near
seasonal to above-normal temperatures across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

Expect VFR conds today. –SHRA/SHRA may occasionally affect TJSJ,
TIST, and TISX, with brief MVFR conds possible near TJPS in the
afternoon (16-22z). Similar conditions with less activity are likely
for Wednesday. Winds will remain light and variable overnight,
shifting to ENE–E at 10 to 15 knots after 13z, with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a surface
trough to the north of the region will maintain gentle to moderate
east to northeast winds through mid-week, then shifting from the
east to southeast by Thursday. This pattern will support passing
trade- wind showers, mainly across the Atlantic waters, with
occasional showers also moving through the Caribbean passages. By
Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds and the arrival of a
long-period northerly swell will likely result in choppy to rough
seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during the weekend.
Mariners are advised to continue monitoring the forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along the northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra and St.
Croix, with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar conditions are
expected to persist through most of the workweek. A moderate risk
means that life-threatening rip currents are possible within the
surf zone, and beachgoers should exercise caution at all times.

Conditions are likely to deteriorate over the weekend as winds
increase and a long-period northerly swell arrives. This may lead
to a return of a high risk of rip currents across Atlantic exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more location
specific information, continue to monitor weather.gov/beach/sju.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

* Seasonal conditions will prevail across the region with passing
trade-wind showers affecting the windward and coastal areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning and
evening hours.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will prevail
along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra
and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday. Then, a high risk
is anticipated Saturday and Sunday.

* Marine conditions will also deteriorate this weekend due to a
northwesterly swell and stronger winds.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected over the next few days
under a southeasterly wind flow.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

Shower activity continued through the evening across northwestern
Puerto Rico, where an extended period of rainfall resulted in
amounts exceeding one inch. After midnight, activity transitioned to
trade-wind showers moving inland from the local waters, affecting
windward sections and producing rainfall totals near one-half inch
across portions of eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico, including
coastal areas of the San Juan metropolitan region. Overnight low
temperatures so far have ranged from the upper 50s across higher
elevations to the upper 70s across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
surrounding islands. Winds over land have remained mostly light and
variable.

A mid-level ridge, the dominant synoptic feature, lingering to the
east will continue influencing the local environment today and
tonight, maintaining subsidence aloft and a capped moisture profile
initially below 700 mb. Early this morning, low-level moisture
remains patchy rather than organized in a continuous plume, with
land-breeze and trade-wind convergence occasionally pooling higher
moisture along windward coastal areas, particularly across eastern
Puerto Rico, enhancing passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. PWAT values start the
period modestly above normal (slightly above the the percentile)
but are expected to drop rapidly to near seasonal levels by early
afternoon as drier air mixes in. At the surface, high pressure
over the North Atlantic will continue shifting eastward,
maintaining a moderate east-southeast breeze today that will
gradually veer toward the southeast over the next 12–36 hours,
providing a steady influx of low-level tropical moisture that will
sustain trade-wind showers moving from the coastal waters inland
and support afternoon, heating- and convergence-driven showers
over northwestern Puerto Rico. Overall rainfall impacts are
expected to remain limited, with only brief and very localized
ponding possible in poor drainage areas. A warming trend will
begin today under the prevailing east- southeasterly flow and
ridge influence, resulting in above-normal daytime highs and
potentially warmer-than-normal nighttime lows.

As the mid-level ridge lifts northeastward, deep tropical moisture
will gradually expand across the region as the trade-wind cap
weakens, peaking Friday afternoon before decreasing rapidly Friday
night as drier air moves in. Warm air aloft will limit widespread
thunderstorm development through most of the period; however, Friday
afternoon will offer the most favorable window for deeper showers as
mid-level temperatures briefly cool and daytime heating peaks,
supporting enhanced shower activity over the interior and western
portions of Puerto Rico, with an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Winds are expected to weaken Thursday night into early Friday,
allowing for slower-moving showers and localized flooding potential,
then increase again later Friday while shifting from southeasterly
to easterly and eventually east-northeasterly as a frontal boundary
approaches and lingers northwest of the area. Shower activity will
remain more frequent across eastern Puerto Rico on Thursday, then
shift toward the interior and western sections on Friday. Overall
flooding risk will remain localized; however, increasing wind speeds
Thursday into Friday will elevate wind-related hazard risks,
especially across exposed coastal and higher terrain areas. A
warming trend will persist through most of the period, with some
cooling suggested Friday night.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

By Saturday, the interaction between a surface high-pressure system
over the central Atlantic and a surface frontal boundary over the
western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
east to northeast breezy to locally windy conditions across the
area. These winds may cause loose outdoor items to be blown
around, particularly in exposed and coastal locations. Moisture
content is expected to be below average during the early morning
hours as a drier air mass, with precipitable water (PWAT) values
around 1.10 inches, moves across the region. Moisture will
gradually increase during the day, allowing for passing morning
trade wind showers over windward areas and afternoon convection
from the interior into western Puerto Rico. Passing showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, activity should move quickly
due to stronger winds, limiting rainfall accumulations and keeping
the flood risk low.

On Sunday morning, winds will remain breezy but are expected to
gradually weaken throughout the day. Sunday is anticipated to be
the driest day of the period, with precipitable water values
decreasing to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches and patches of near-
average moisture moving across the region. These conditions will
support more variable but seasonable weather, with passing trade
wind showers and limited afternoon convective development due to
local effects. From Monday through Wednesday, a subtropical jet
streak near 250 mb will establish a more favorable dynamic
pattern, supporting upper-level divergence and the development of
an induced surface trough. As a result, an increase in shower
activity is expected across the forecast area under an easterly to
northeasterly low-level wind flow. The potential for isolated
thunderstorms will also increase as mid to upper-level temperatures
cool. Based on the latest model guidance, temperatures aloft are
expected to decrease from around -5 degrees C on Monday to near
-7.5 degrees C by Wednesday. Forecast updates should continue to
be monitored as uncertainty remains. At this time, each afternoon
from early to midweek carries a limited flood risk, mainly due to
the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained
areas.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal surface
temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the long-term period, at least from Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites thru the fcst period.
Periods of -RA/-SHRA will affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ thru
14/13–14Z, with brief MVFR vsby/cigs psbl. Aft 14/17–22Z, SHRA
activity will shift inland, mainly impacting TJPS and TJBQ. After
14/22Z, SHRA will again affect the USVI and TJSJ. Sfc winds will be
lgt/vrb early, incrg to 10–15 kt and bcmg E–ESE btwn 14/13–22Z, then
returning to lgt/vrb thereafter. No sig or prolonged avn impacts
fcst.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through the end of the
workweek. By Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds, and the
arrival of a long-period northerly swell will likely result in
choppy to rough seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during
the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along the northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, St. Croix,
St. Thomas, and St. John with breaking waves around 4 to 5 feet
due to a small pulse of energy. The moderate risk will prevail
through Friday, then conditions are likely to deteriorate Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night as winds increase and a long-
period northerly swell arrives. This may lead to a return of a
high risk of rip currents across most local beaches of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

* Passing showers will continue to affect the easter sections of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the morning hours.
Therefore, ponding of water over roads are possible.

* From Friday into early Saturday, moisture will increase, and the
frequency of showers is still expected to increase. Especially
across eastern sections, including the San Juan metro area.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents through tomorrow,
increasing to high on Saturday into Sunday for the north coast
of Puerto Rico and Culebra.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

Showers affected eastern Puerto Rico this evening, initially
isolated, but increased in coverage after midnight. Radar-estimated
rainfall since around 8 PM showed isolated amounts up to one-half
inch across parts of eastern Puerto Rico. Patches of mid- to high-
level clouds were observed, with overall cloudiness increasing
alongside the shower activity. Overnight low temperatures remained
warmer than normal, with readings in the low 60s across higher
elevations, the upper 70s across lower elevations, and even some low
80s across coastal areas and nearby buoys. Winds were light and
variable over land, while a general moderate ESE flow persisted
across the regional waters.

Today will feature moderate ESE trade winds veering to the SE as the
surface high shifts farther away from the region, allowing a warmer
air mass to remain in place. High temperatures are expected to reach
the mid to upper 80s across many coastal and urban areas. In the
meantime, moisture will gradually increase as the mid-level ridge
lifts northeastward and the inversion weakens. These conditions will
support scattered showers, with morning activity continuing over
exposed east to southeast sections. During the afternoon, showers
are expected to develop, with focused across northern and
northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as downwind of the local islands,
following the dominant southeasterly flow. Rainfall impacts should
remain limited, though brief ponding of water and isolated urban
flooding are possible where showers repeat.

Conditions will remain relatively quiet tonight, with gentle winds,
warm temperatures, and less frequent passing showers, despite
increasing moisture. On Friday, wetter-than-normal conditions
persist, with light winds in the morning strengthening to a moderate
breeze by afternoon. While morning activity remains limited, weak
steering flow and abundant moisture will favor slow-moving scattered
to locally numerous afternoon showers, mainly across western
interior and western Puerto Rico, with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms producing lightning and locally heavier downpours.
Friday night into Saturday, winds will strengthen further and
gradually back from easterly to east-northeasterly, transitioning
the pattern toward a more wind-driven regime. On Saturday, fresh to
locally strong east-northeasterly winds will support more frequent
trade-wind showers, cooler temperatures, and increasing wind-related
hazard risks, especially along exposed coastal areas. Overall
impacts should remain localized, with brief ponding or isolated
flooding, a lightning risk on Friday, and non-thunderstorm wind
impacts increasing into Saturday.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

The inherited forecast remains unchanged. On Sunday morning, winds
will remain breezy but are expected to gradually weaken through
the day. Sunday will remain the driest day of the long-term
period, as precipitable water values decrease to around 1.0 inch,
which is below normal for this time of year. This will support
relatively stable and seasonable conditions, with passing trade
wind showers and limited afternoon convection driven primarily by
local effects.

Beginning Monday, a transition toward a wetter and more unsettled
pattern is expected to develop and persist through much of the
workweek. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to
around 1.75 inches, which is above normal for this time of year.
From Monday through Wednesday, a subtropical jet streak near 250
mb will enhance upper-level divergence and support the development
of an induced surface trough, resulting in higher shower coverage
across the forecast area under an easterly to northeasterly low-
level wind flow.

Additionally, 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius during the
early part of the workweek will allow any rainfall activity that
develops to grow more efficiently in the vertical. This
environment will enhance instability and increase the potential
for isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon
hours. Current guidance suggests that the first part of the
workweek, as well as the latter portion of the forecast period,
appear to be the wettest, while some variability in rainfall
coverage and intensity is expected in between.

At this time, each afternoon from early in the workweek carries a
limited flood risk, mainly due to the potential for ponding of
water on roads and in poorly drained areas. Forecast updates should
continue to be monitored as some uncertainty remains particularly
by the later part of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
forecast period. Periods of -RA/-SHRA will affect the USVI terminals
and TJSJ through 15/14Z, with brief MVFR visibility and ceiling
restrictions possible. After 15/16Z, shower activity is expected to
shift inland, mainly impacting TJPS and TJBQ. After 15/22Z,
VCSH/SHRA will again affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ. Surface
winds will be light and variable early, increasing to 10–15 kt from
the ESE–SE between 15/14Z and 15/22Z, then becoming light and
variable again thereafter. No significant or prolonged aviation
impacts are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

The surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through the end of the
workweek. By Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds, and the
arrival of a long-period northerly swell will likely result in
choppy to rough seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during
the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026

The moderate risk of rip currents along all the northern-exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will prevail
through Friday. Conditions will deteriorate Saturday and Sunday,
when energy from a northerly swell moves in and results in
breaking waves along all the north and northeast coasts of Puerto
Rico, including Culebra. As a result, a high risk of rip current
is forecast for the upcoming weekend.