Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

I swear if it snows on the beach again ... Another thing I'm done with

This is the intriguing thing. The shortwave rounding the base of the trough this weekend is trying to find surface moisture (Euro) and maybe! Then will snow on the beaches once it gets to Tallahassee and Savannah! .

[orangeblood]

Cpc is not looking so dry. I do believe the WWB/enso change is about to change up the national trend for moisture. US as whole has been very dry this winter but MJO and background forcing is about to shift. Much more systems will cross the country and the west will finally get some reprieve.

I wouldn't put too much stock on guidance in the very long range, at least until the changes are done. You're just not going to get accurate looks. The ridge will be in Alaska starting tomorrow as heights rise. P7 is coming after 20th then we can start believing models.

Flurry watch with the late weekend trough.

This is the stratosphere look that has my attention now towards the end of the month, could bode well for February. Heavy hitting PV analogs with this 1985 2021 and 2014. Get systems to cut underneath of this and we'll turn this dreadful winter around quickly

[Brent]

I swear if it snows on the beach again ... Another thing I'm done with

This is the intriguing thing. The shortwave rounding the base of the trough this weekend is trying to find surface moisture (Euro) and maybe! Then will snow on the beaches once it gets to Tallahassee and Savannah! .

Ugh if only this weekend trended a few hundred miles NW

The GFS did jump quite a bit. I guess it's not hopeless yet

Most of the EPS members that have snow actually start on Saturday though it's a dusting probably at best

We did get a surprise dusting from the Gulf storm last year though

[Ntxw]

I swear if it snows on the beach again ... Another thing I'm done with

This is the intriguing thing. The shortwave rounding the base of the trough this weekend is trying to find surface moisture (Euro) and maybe! Then will snow on the beaches once it gets to Tallahassee and Savannah! .

Ugh if only this weekend trended a few hundred miles NW

The GFS did jump quite a bit. I guess it's not hopeless yet

Most of the EPS members that have snow actually start on Saturday though it's a dusting probably at best

We did get a surprise dusting from the Gulf storm last year though

Hold onto the euro. That shortwave that comes in from the NW this weekend. Likely virga above, but you never know with these things.

[Ntxw]

Cpc is not looking so dry. I do believe the WWB/enso change is about to change up the national trend for moisture. US as whole has been very dry this winter but MJO and background forcing is about to shift. Much more systems will cross the country and the west will finally get some reprieve.

I wouldn't put too much stock on guidance in the very long range, at least until the changes are done. You're just not going to get accurate looks. The ridge will be in Alaska starting tomorrow as heights rise. P7 is coming after 20th then we can start believing models.

Flurry watch with the late weekend trough.

This is the stratosphere look that has my attention now towards the end of the month, could bode well for February. Heavy hitting PV analogs with this 1985 2021 and 2014. Get systems to cut underneath of this and we'll turn this dreadful winter around quickly

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z50_anom/1768348800/1769558400-jr6myqr16w4.png

February is looking better to me by the day. The cold pattern matures late in the month and early February probably is an extension of that.

[Ntxw]

Models are looking a little better at 5H for the weekend system. Dry for most of Texas on the GFS but might snow fairly far south again (Gulf coast)? Trends definitely interesting!

[PTrackerLA]

This is quite the development for the medium range on the 12z GFS! Let's pull this west!

[Ntxw]

Also for the northern half of the region, it is the end of the great torch of 2025-2026 winter! Looks chilly (for wxman57's standards up here) 50s...maybe a 60 here or there before big fronts...good riddance.

[Fifty Rock]

Models are looking a little better at 5H for the weekend system. Dry for most of Texas on the GFS but might snow fairly far south again (Gulf coast)? Trends definitely interesting!

https://i.postimg.cc/9MSLBdc1/gfs.gif

Well thanks for a good kick to the skin twins.....

[Fifty Rock]

Models are looking a little better at 5H for the weekend system. Dry for most of Texas on the GFS but might snow fairly far south again (Gulf coast)? Trends definitely interesting!

https://i.postimg.cc/9MSLBdc1/gfs.gif

Well thanks for a good kick to the skin twins.....

[Stratton23]

and of course its east of us on the GFS, real big surprise there

[Ntxw]

and of course its east of us on the GFS, real big surprise there

GFS is untrustworthy like wxman57 said earlier, especially now. It's foregone even bad within ~120 hours sans this weekend's event at 5h. Each run in the long range is swinging differently even more than usual. Not to say Euro is great either, but within ~120 I'd lean Euro and long range only if the two agree.

[wxman57]

That very weak 500mb trof passing next Tue/Wed may be enough to develop a west Gulf low, which could bring rain to the TX coast. If the air over Texas was cold enough, this is the type of setup that would bring winter precip. Not this time, though. Just rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Also for the northern half of the region, it is the end of the great torch of 2025-2026 winter! Looks chilly (for wxman57's standards up here) 50s...maybe a 60 here or there before big fronts...good riddance.

That's fine with me, I don't mind some periods that are chilly but not cold. It is cool enough for just a light jacket. So you aren't freezing. That's great.

As long as we have some cold at some point that's okay. What I hate is the 80s and upper 70s in January lol.

[Stratton23]

And of course ensembles have trended with most of the cold air going well east of us for late january , i mean seriously, you cannot make this garbage up, this is ridiculous

[Yukon Cornelius]

And of course ensembles have trended with most of the cold air going well east of us for late january , i mean seriously, you cannot make this garbage up, this is ridiculous

I think we all probably expected that. It’s been that way all winter so far.

[rwfromkansas]

And of course ensembles have trended with most of the cold air going well east of us for late january , i mean seriously, you cannot make this garbage up, this is ridiculous

Geez, if that truly happens, then I think it's time to just look forward to hopefully an active severe weather season. But, I am hopeful with MJO and things lining up to the north it won't happen this time. I am staying optimistic, dang it.

[wxman22]

Not set in stone yet, but this will probably be my last winter in Texas. It would be nice for it to go out in a “bang” lol. As I am likely moving to the Ohio Valley late Summer this year.

[rwfromkansas]

I have started following this Chris Suchan met from San Antonio on FB. He has been providing some good info on trends and such using ensembles etc.

[rwfromkansas]

Not set in stone yet, but this will probably be my last winter in Texas. It would be nice for it to go out in a “bang” lol. As I am likely moving to the Ohio Valley late Summer this year.

Congrats! I always dream about moving back to Kansas, but it's likely a decade away. We just bought a swim spa after years of consideration to try to make summers more enjoyable/help my wife exercise who can't be in the heat much (gets heat rashes). I really miss that small town Kansas charm. No offense to the small towns in Texas, but most just look dead unless it's Fredericksburg, Roanoke etc. Lots of the small towns in Kansas have a lot of charm and are still alive. I am not a fan of the city life, but we are here due to jobs. What I teach (journalism) just can't really be done well in most small towns unless I want to teach mostly English all day...no thanks on that. So here we are. I love North Texas most of the time. I would miss good Mexican food.

But, I pray your move is a great one and you enjoy the change.