Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Some of the operational guidance ( ICON, CMC ) are starting to see significant cold bleeding into north texas and or the panhandle at the end of their runs , this Euro run again comes in pretty cold for texas

[Harp.1]

Some of the operational guidance ( ICON, CMC ) are starting to see significant cold bleeding into north texas and or the panhandle at the end of their runs , this Euro run again comes in pretty cold for texas

The new Euro has run?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 depends on which site, I use weatherbell, and the new run of the euro just finished now for me, for sites like tropical tidbits, 00z Euro finishes between 2-3 am

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 depends on which site, I use weatherbell, and the new run of the euro just finished now for me, for sites like tropical tidbits, 00z Euro finishes between 2-3 am

Is it anything like the GFS?

[Harp.1]

I'd feel a whole lot better if the GFS wasn't the lone wolf here.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 dry this run, except for a couple isolated snow showers, however it is much colder than the GFS for the 24-25th time frame, if we are going by operational runs at this range, which still dont mean much, the Euro has been the only consistent guidance that hasnt lost the blocking and is seeing the cold air plunging into texas, thing the Euro might be leading the charge this time around lol

[Brent]

Well the most reliable TV met here according to most people put flurries on Saturday

It's a start

Euro dumping Arctic air here lows near zero on the 25th

[Ralph's Weather]

Saturday's potential light snow is the type event that global models will always struggle to resolve. I am waiting on the hi res models tomorrow to try to resolve where the small scale forcing will set up.

[Brent]

Another post about potentially widespread winter weather between the 24th and 28th

[wxman22]

Another post about potentially widespread winter weather between the 24th and 28th

[Brent]

Another post about potentially widespread winter weather between the 24th and 28th

https://i.ibb.co/5X1KTzNK/IMG-0560.png

The Euro has this occuring with temperatures in the teens here

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, are we looking at long shot or could we get a surprise snow/ice here (DFW) this weekend?

I'm so lost right now, haha

[Brent]

Ok, are we looking at long shots or could we get a surprise snow/ice here this weekend?

I'm so lost right now, haha

This weekend is just a weak wave that blows up east of us probably. Most likely a flizzard at best

Next weekend is the hype maybe more widespread major thing it seems. There are quite a few ensembles here with a snowstorm and Arctic air it seems. Of course it's too far out to get excited unfortunately

[wxman57]

Ok, are we looking at long shots or could we get a surprise snow/ice here this weekend?

I'm so lost right now, haha

This weekend is just a weak wave that blows up east of us probably. Most likely a flizzard at best

Next weekend is the hype maybe more widespread major thing it seems. There are quite a few ensembles here with a snowstorm and Arctic air it seems. Of course it's too far out to get excited unfortunately

I agree. It'll be one of those times when some post "I thought I saw a snowflake!", not anything measurable this weekend. I guess you could consider it a start to your winter. The shot of cold air around the 25th looks more interesting, though very brief. Back to 70 degrees a few days later.

[wxman57]

I just received word that one of our clients would like an in-person presentation about the 2025 hurricane season and an outlook for 2026. Bad news is that the presentation would be in - ST. CROIX. Date would be the 24th-27th, while the Gulf coast is freezing. Who in the world would want to be on a warm Caribbean island while everyone along the Gulf coast is freezing? I can't think of anyone. What a ridiculous request!

[HockeyTx82]

STORM2K WEATHER BOARD
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT – FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
WXMAN57 ESCAPING THE POTENTIAL POLAR WATCH STATEMENT

ISSUED: Whenever model mayhem demands it
VALID FOR: All posters within range of overcaffeinated long-range guidance

---

...POTENTIAL POLAR OUTBREAK BEING CLOSELY MONITORED...
...WXMAN57 CURRENTLY ATTEMPTING TO ESCAPE THE HYPE FIELD...

A broad area of model-induced anxiety has developed across the Storm2k region as various deterministic and ensemble runs continue to advertise a possible intrusion of modified Arctic air sometime between “next week” and “the rest of winter.”

At this time, confidence in any specific outcome remains low, while confidence in escalating forum drama remains near 100%.

---

Discussion

Model overview:
Global models continue to oscillate between:

- Scenario A: “Ice Age: The Sequel”
- Scenario B: “Never mind, back to 60s and drizzle”

Run-to-run consistency is poor, ensemble spread is large, and teleconnections are doing their usual mid-winter impression of a cat walking across a keyboard.

Wxman57 position:
In light of the above, Wxman57 is hereby:

- Declining to issue any Polar Watch, Polar Warning, Polar Advisory, or Polar Mildly-Annoyed Statement at this time.
- Reserving the right to mock any 384-hour snow map posted without context.
- Officially escaping to a safe distance from the 06z GFS until such time as reality and guidance decide to speak to each other again.

---

What this means for Storm2k posters

- Do:
- Watch trends, not single runs.
- Check ensembles, not just the coldest outlier that ruins your pipes.
- Remember climatology—February in Texas can do almost anything, including nothing.

- Do not:
- Declare “historic outbreak locked in” based on one run.
- Buy all the bread and milk because of a 10-day 2-meter temperature map.
- Tag Wxman57 in every frame of the FV3.

---

Bottom line

A potential polar outbreak remains possible, but not yet predictable with the precision required for an official Wxman57 Polar Watch. Until better agreement emerges, this product serves as a reminder that:

> “If it’s beyond Day 7, it’s mostly entertainment.”

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED
…when the pattern, the ensembles, and Wxman57 all agree that it’s time to stop escaping and start issuing.

---

[Tireman4]

I just received word that one of our clients would like an in-person presentation about the 2025 hurricane season and an outlook for 2026. Bad news is that the presentation would be in - ST. CROIX. Date would be the 24th-27th, while the Gulf coast is freezing. Who in the world would want to be on a warm Caribbean island while everyone along the Gulf coast is freezing? I can't think of anyone. What a ridiculous request!

The audacity of that client. How dare he? Why would one ask such a thing? You have every right to turn that down.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Trough needs to slam into W TX, still a bit too far east. Getting there though.

[wxman22]

We’re getting in range of the HRRR and WRF models. The HRRR and the WRF-2 show snow breaking out in the panhandle as the shortwave enters the state. The 0z mesoscale runs tonight will be interesting to see if the models show the system finding any moisture as it gets further into the state.

[Ntxw]

Good news to report heights have risen in Alaska. They are going to warm up from the deep freeze! After spending forever below zero (since mid Dec) Fairbanks may get all the way up close to freezing !



Meanwhile for us the cooldowns begin! Kudos to Stratton for sticking to his guns, ~mid month brought about change. There is at least 2 or 3 successive fronts/cold air masses the next week or so as what looked like ~near normal may bring more below normal. Will the big one occur?