Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 ive just gone quiet because the other enswmbles keep trying to dump the cold air east of us again, EPS looks the best, I just dont want to get excited just yet again and get burned lol

[TomballEd]

500 mb look has a lot of potential for a big southern plains winter storm Jan 24-26th time frame!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1768478400/1769212800-7UkHc7yfOUg.png

Won't show up as well on a smoothed ensemble as the op. Not as well defined as a true trough line hanging back from a Hudson Bay Low, with well defined NW winds turning W, but my 3/4 glass full optimist eyes sees at least a hint of a a McFarland feature which would hold back the cold air from running down E of the Rockies until the air mass has gotten mega dense and mega cold.

Ok, it is sort of wishful thinking but if I squint right.

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 ive just gone quiet because the other enswmbles keep trying to dump the cold air east of us again, EPS looks the best, I just dont want to get excited just yet again and get burned lol

I hear ya brother. I think this is our best shot.

[txtwister78]

It's a start.

[Quixotic]

Maybe it’s just me but the succession of progressively colder fronts has got me a little bit more chipper. Stepping down until something bigger is possible. Plus, some of these fronts can give us a surprise or two even if it’s just a lake effect flizzard.

[Iceresistance]

Maybe it’s just me but the succession of progressively colder fronts has got me a little bit more chipper. Stepping down until something bigger is possible. Plus, some of these fronts can give us a surprise or two even if it’s just a lake effect flizzard.

Yeah, my local TV met has flurries on Saturday morning, it's at least a start for me

[rwfromkansas]

Well, we are past 100 at least. So, that's something. Lol. At least there are things to watch, I just really hope we don't just revert back after a week reprieve like has been the case so far.

[TomballEd]

Bigger question- does my house get rain weekend after next?

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

[txtwister78]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

Agreed. With that much cold building into the midwest no way it's getting held up once we get that initial surge south.

Seen that movie before with arctic air and modeling further south.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

Has all the pieces on the board now, hopefully they start coming together. That air will be much denser/colder than modeled considering the 1050 Plus HP entering the plains (Arctic Origin as well).

[Brent]

There's definitely still a snowy signal here next weekend

This may be the longest it's lasted all winter not even kidding

[Harp.1]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

Has all the pieces on the board now, hopefully they start coming together. That air will be much denser/colder than modeled considering the 1050 Plus HP entering the plains (Arctic Origin as well).

What am I missing? The gfs didn’t look that special.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 colder air makes it down to the gulf coast on this run, nothing crazy yet, but it has a 1052 MB high dropping down into Montana, its starting to see the cold, with that kind of a high, the arctic air is going to go south and it cant be stopped despite models trying to hold it back, and also much colder than what is shown, also hints at what the euro has been showing with some sort of system out to our west, not a perfect tun by any means, but this run of the GFS definitely made a lot of good improvements

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 colder air makes it down to the gulf coast on this run, nothing crazy yet, but it has a 1052 MB high dropping down into Montana, its starting to see the cold, with that kind of a high, the arctic air is going to go south and it cant be stopped despite models trying to hold it back, and also much colder than what is shown, also hints at what the euro has been showing with some sort of system out to our west, not a perfect tun by any means, but this run of the GFS definitely made a lot of good improvements

Thanks

[Iceresistance]

MJO is looking good

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bhGmZ.png

[cajungal]

Harp.1 colder air makes it down to the gulf coast on this run, nothing crazy yet, but it has a 1052 MB high dropping down into Montana, its starting to see the cold, with that kind of a high, the arctic air is going to go south and it cant be stopped despite models trying to hold it back, and also much colder than what is shown, also hints at what the euro has been showing with some sort of system out to our west, not a perfect tun by any means, but this run of the GFS definitely made a lot of good improvements

GFS has been wrong so much. Not falling for it this time

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Literally no hope for the Rockies over the next couple weeks. This is brutal.

[Sambucol2024]

Harp.1 colder air makes it down to the gulf coast on this run, nothing crazy yet, but it has a 1052 MB high dropping down into Montana, its starting to see the cold, with that kind of a high, the arctic air is going to go south and it cant be stopped despite models trying to hold it back, and also much colder than what is shown, also hints at what the euro has been showing with some sort of system out to our west, not a perfect tun by any means, but this run of the GFS definitely made a lot of good improvements

If this verifies, what are the possible temps we would get along the upper Texas coast? Would we be several days below freezing?

[Stratton23]

sambucol2024 on this GFS run, highs would he in the mid to upper 40’s, cold but nothing crazy, but globals models always underestimate the cold air, Euro a couple runs ago was showing highs near or just below freezing, if you get a 1050+ high or stronger into montana, texas will definitely be getting very cold