2025 TCR's

[sasha_B]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072025_Gabrielle.pdf

TCR on Gabrielle is up! Peak VMax held at 120 kts; minimum central pressure down from 948 hPa to 944 hPa. The only remaining hurricane reports for the 2025 Atlantic season are Erin, Imelda, and (of course) Melissa.

[CrazyC83]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072025_Gabrielle.pdf

TCR on Gabrielle is up! Peak VMax held at 120 kts; minimum central pressure down from 948 hPa to 944 hPa. The only remaining hurricane reports for the 2025 Atlantic season are Erin, Imelda, and (of course) Melissa.

Melissa will almost certainly be the last one.

As far as the intensity and BT, I'd have actually started the track as a short-lived TC on the 16th, then introduced a break (as a "low") before delaying the re-genesis more than 24 hours after actual, either late on the 18th or early on the 19th, as it was a broad center and at times was lacking deep convection. Reason being that it didn't even have much of a structure at the time of genesis and the reformation. I'd have gone with a 125 kt peak intensity since the Recon was running quite a bit higher than Dvorak, and it likely strengthened more rapidly to the peak (pressure would have been 941 mb).

[cycloneye]

TS Jerry is up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102025_Jerry.pdf

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072025_Gabrielle.pdf

TCR on Gabrielle is up! Peak VMax held at 120 kts; minimum central pressure down from 948 hPa to 944 hPa. The only remaining hurricane reports for the 2025 Atlantic season are Erin, Imelda, and (of course) Melissa.

They fixed it now, but for a few hours it said "Flossie" instead of Gabrielle in the top corner.

[ncforecaster89]

With the recent slight decreases in the estimated central pressures for both Humberto and Gabrielle (at their respective peaks), I’m even more confident in the expectation that the NHC will likely revise Melissa’s peak (around 1230z) to 890 mb (along with a MSW of 165 kt).

[sasha_B]

With the recent slight decreases in the estimated central pressures for both Humberto and Gabrielle (at their respective peaks), I’m even more confident in the expectation that the NHC will likely revise Melissa’s peak (around 1230z) to 890 mb (along with a MSW of 165 kt).

Agreed - 165 kt / 890 hPa for Melissa's TCR seems very likely at this point. I was expecting a decrease in minimum central pressure for Humberto - the data from the final recon flight practically guaranteed it - but the upgrade for Gabrielle does seem to suggest that they'll be a little more "generous" when reassessing Melissa.

[ljmac75]

We're down to 4 TCRs left in the Atlantic and 3 in the Pacific so it's time to play "Guess the TCR Release Order"

My prediction for the Atlantic: Chantal, Erin, Imelda, Melissa, right in the order they formed. Will I get it exactly right? Probably not.

Pacific: Raymond, Lorena, Priscilla. Complete guess here, my odds of being right are 1 in 6. Low odds, but not unrealistic.

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172025_Raymond.pdf Raymond

[CrazyC83]

Erin's TCR is out.

Main change is an earlier genesis and a Cabo Verde landfall. Pressure was 913 mb at peak, winds 140 kt.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052025_Erin.pdf

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, so it looks like the folks saying that Erin likely had a minimum pressure of 913 mbar were right on the dot. Given Erin's 160 mph winds, this also makes it the Atlantic's most intense 160 mph-Category 5 hurricane recorded (if we exclude other stronger Category 5s that simply weakened back to low-end Category 5 status but also had "pressure lag," like Milton's third peak as a 160/907 system). Also, I believe that Erin is now officially the Atlantic's first recorded Category 5 storm to have directly impacted the Cape Verde Islands as a classifiable system.

[ljmac75]

Everyone missed Lorena https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122025_Lorena.pdf