Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

absolutely monster 1056 mb arctic high sliding into montana on the GFS, that cold is going to press hard, im expecting some pretty crazy model runs the next few days

[Ntxw]

Taking the GFS will likely be better than the Euro in the days ahead (in this setup) due to the fact that it is handling the MJO much better. The Euro suite has been trying to shift into phase 8 which has been difficult the past couple of years due to the very warm waters stuck over the West Pacific so I think an extended stay in phase 7 is much more likely in accordance to recent climatology.

[DukeMu]

Euro, CMC, GFS, Ensembles are in agreement about the Arctic FROPA on the 25th. Prepare for 5 whole days of almost winter (but not really). Still some eastward bias on the cold.

CMC throws a little NTX wintry mischief in there as well.

It's something...

[DukeMu]

I'm sure we will see some sub 15F in NE TX tomorrow.

Some serious advection here in CLL.

[Brent]

Euro, CMC, GFS, Ensembles are in agreement about the Arctic FROPA on the 25th. Prepare for 5 whole days of almost winter (but not really). Still some eastward bias on the cold.

CMC throws a little NTX wintry mischief in there as well.

It's something...

Yeah I mean it's not bad here but the EPS again still looks better on the snow charts east of us like it has the whole winter...

We gotta work on that to get really exciting

[DukeMu]

Euro, CMC, GFS, Ensembles are in agreement about the Arctic FROPA on the 25th. Prepare for 5 whole days of almost winter (but not really). Still some eastward bias on the cold.

CMC throws a little NTX wintry mischief in there as well.

It's something...

Yeah I mean it's not bad here but the EPS again still looks better on the snow charts east of us like it has the whole winter...

We gotta work on that to get really exciting

and it's a short window.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/aigfs/2026011718/aigfs_z500aNorm_namer_61.png

[Brent]

Euro, CMC, GFS, Ensembles are in agreement about the Arctic FROPA on the 25th. Prepare for 5 whole days of almost winter (but not really). Still some eastward bias on the cold.

CMC throws a little NTX wintry mischief in there as well.

It's something...

Yeah I mean it's not bad here but the EPS again still looks better on the snow charts east of us like it has the whole winter...

We gotta work on that to get really exciting

and it's a short window.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/aigfs/2026011718/aigfs_z500aNorm_namer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/aigfs/2026011718/aigfs_z500aNorm_namer_61.png

To be fair there have been multiple windows showing up at least up here which is reason for optimism but my fear remains that it's been so hard to get real moisture in here. I'm just questioning if the precip will remain when we get closer

[wxman22]

FWIW the latest GEFS ensembles are showing strong support for a winter storm in the southern plains.With the majority of members showing a storm around the 25th/26th.

[wxman22]

It's been awhile...

[Harp.1]

I guess everyone is waiting for the latest model runs…. lol!

[Brent]

I guess everyone is waiting for the latest model runs…. lol!

I'm not worried about the cold I'm worried about the moisture

The cold is gonna overwhelm the pattern for sure no matter what the op runs say

[Stratton23]

00z ICON is in, needless to say its very cold

[Brent]

00z ICON is in, needless to say its very cold

Some snow here Friday night

[Stratton23]

Brent yup, next up is the 00z AI GFS and oh lordy its aboit to drop the arctic hammer

[txtwister78]

The AI GFS is the kind of setup that delivers. Just enough of a SE ridge in place to send a direct shot down the plains into Texas. Brutal cold on that run.

Ice across Central/SC TX in addition to that

[Brent]

Both the icon and AI GFS are threatening zero here already heck of a start to the 0z runs

[orangeblood]

Bummer, models are going away from the phasing solution. Looking more like bitter dry cold!

[txtwister78]

Operationals still struggling/feedback error with all the moving pieces within this upcoming setup. Still a few days of that before we begin to lock in. Ensembles still best bet for now.

[Stratton23]

I will say though, if you want to follow any particular global model, the ICON has generally done good with seeing cold air-masses better than the other models, so i expect it probably has the most accurate idea of whats going to happen, at least with the drainage of cold air into texas, any sort of storm system, well thats not even worth looking at in this range yet

[hurricane2025]

Cold don’t matter if you don’t have moisture, models will keep you up all night get some sleep