Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Sambucol2024]

00z ICON is in, needless to say its very cold

Do tell. How cold?

[orangeblood]

Cold don’t matter if you don’t have moisture, models will keep you up all night get some sleep

Agreed, without the STJ involved in this setup it’s worthless cold

[Brent]

00z ICON is in, needless to say its very cold

Do tell. How cold?

Too cold if it's not going to snow

I do hope it's just the models can't figure it out but let's remember it's been dry for months

[Stratton23]

Sambucol already has se texas near freezing, some teens showing up in west central and north texas

[gpsnowman]

Bummer, models are going away from the phasing solution. Looking more like bitter dry cold!

Oh man don't say that. Bitter cold is fine from time to time but time is running out on a good snowstorm. Today was a great winter day with the clouds and cold breeze. I need a snow fix and I need it now. Inject a blizzard in my veins.

[Stratton23]

AIFS euro is really really cold

[txtwister78]

AIFS euro is really really cold

Meh not really. AI GFS definitely is but Euro keeps most of it NE and modifies it a good deal as it heads south into Texas.

[txtwister78]

I see what you meant Stratton in the longer range. Interesting in that it breaks these up into intrusions before unloading down the plains

[orangeblood]

AIFS euro is really really cold

Meh not really. AI GFS definitely is but Euro keeps most of it NE and modifies it a good deal as it heads south into Texas.

It’s the coldest by far, 5 day anomalies of 15F below normal

[txtwister78]

AIFS euro is really really cold

Meh not really. AI GFS definitely is but Euro keeps most of it NE and modifies it a good deal as it heads south into Texas.

It’s the coldest by far, 5 day anomalies of 15F below normal

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1768694400/1769752800-dGT6h5bZ3GI.png

Yeah you missed my post above. I can see the maps obviously thanks but it's also delaying the coldest air a few days beyond what others have indicated and it's one run that its previous hadn't shown.

The 18z by comparison isn't even close for the same range so yeah. Lol

[Stratton23]

Ah the challenges of forecasting arctic blasts, gotta love it ! Regardless i think their is enough evidence tonight in guidance that suggests this could be a more significant outbreak or at least that scenario is growing a bit more, over just you’re typical arctic front, lots of time to watch, but i have a feeling we are setting our selves up for model busting cold

[orangeblood]

Ah the challenges of forecasting arctic blasts, gotta love it ! Regardless i think their is enough evidence tonight in guidance that suggests this could be a more significant outbreak or at least that scenario is growing a bit more, over just you’re typical arctic front, lots of time to watch, but i have a feeling we are setting our selves up for model busting cold

Agreed, major cold is coming…need to find moisture . Euro Op is promising, brings the Baja low out sooner

[Brent]

Here goes the Euro with a winter storm again

Lots of very cold air nearby

[txtwister78]

Ah the challenges of forecasting arctic blasts, gotta love it ! Regardless i think their is enough evidence tonight in guidance that suggests this could be a more significant outbreak or at least that scenario is growing a bit more, over just you’re typical arctic front, lots of time to watch, but i have a feeling we are setting our selves up for model busting cold

Just a question of source and flow but once you get arctic air into the Midwest nothing stopping it from coming south. Just a question of how cold the airmass is and whether we get some precip timed with it.

But yeah this was the window I had been watching and it continues to look like our best shot for real winter.

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol already has se texas near freezing, some teens showing up in west central and north texas

Perfect. Should we beat the rush, and buy the usual toilet paper and winter preps run now rather than later?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 looks like a solid 5-6 days before we moderate

[txtwister78]

Euro and its AI continue to be all over the place. GFS has been the most consistent ironically thus far. Let's see if "the king" catches up although wouldn't mind seeing a few inches of snow the Euro decided to add tonight to SC TX. Only problem is its beyond 240 hours out.

[Brent]

For Tulsa

Euro has 5 days below freezing including monday

GFS 3 days

Yeah the Euro ensembles at least definitely have a decent signal here for snow

Major increases in Arkansas

[orangeblood]

Ensembles actually look much better for phasing, might have some moisture to work with after all

[Quixotic]

Again: get the cold here and let the atmosphere do the rest.