Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Harp.1]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro falls in line.

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro falls in line.

06z Euro was also lining up a big storm; however, it would be just our luck for the 12z to say, "Not so fast my friend!" Lol

[TomballEd]

Ice storm = worse than hurricane don’t want that

Especially on a Saturday. I get a day off work for forecast ice storm. Teaching Geometry in an urban high school is not fun.

One thing looking at the GFS, I know it'll change every six hours because that is what the GFS does. But if it is otherwise correct, the rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow lines will be farther south than depicted because none of the globals do shallow cold airmasses well this far out. Clown map 10 inches of snow in DFW may actually be seeing 10 inches of snow and not 3 inches of sleet because of GFS tending to be a bit too warm with shallow dense cold air.

[gpsnowman]

My buddy from New Hampshire is flying down for a visit on the 24th then we are supposed to fly to Mexico City for street food and cold beer on the 26th-29th. We are screwed. Of course this happens right when we are supposed to leave. That being said, I need snow. If it happens it happens. Just worried my friend won't be able to fly home on the 30th

[Ntxw]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro falls in line.

06z Euro was also lining up a big storm; however, it would be just our luck for the 12z to say, "Not so fast my friend!" Lol

P7 lines up better with trough that isn't too fast to connect with the STJ/southern stream system. Too fast and the ULL/southern stream backtracks. I think the Euro will get there, it just has corrections it needs to make elsewhere.

[wxman22]

The 12z EURO is onboard with a winter storm!

[Stratton23]

Yup the Euro caved to the GFS/ CMC, things are getting fun now folks

[Ntxw]

Aleutian low pattern is still coming later, warmth will overtake much of Canada and the western US with the Aleutian trough, but this is not the same reason we were warm prior, this is setting up for an 'El Nino' like finish to Feb after the first week. It will be a significantly wetter, and colder regime once past the set up.





Watch the stratosphere in early Feb, it will be taking big hits from the Aleutian low. Onset El Nino years like 1957, 1997, 2009 were cold into early spring.

[wxman22]

Yikes! Major storm on the EURO.

[bubba hotep]

As early as Hour 66, you can see the changes on the 12z Euro vs. 00z Euro. This is getting into lockdown range, and we might just spend the week fretting over details.

[cajungal]

Yikes! Major storm on the EURO.

https://i.ibb.co/xKnbp7q3/indesx.png
https://i.ibb.co/DDLfTkQp/indbex.png
https://i.ibb.co/Fq063mWw/infdex.png

At least the ice stays well north of SE Louisiana

[JayDT]

So ummm, is it okay to start feeling cautiously optimistic?

[txtwister78]

Ahhh there it is. Lol. Better late than never. Agreed all about ironing out details but colder solutions likely as we get closer to event time.

[Cpv17]

So ummm, is it okay to start feeling cautiously optimistic?

Honestly, I’d like to see this inside of 100 hours before I feel too optimistic.

[bubba hotep]

Long duration winter storm for the Southern Plains

[Harp.1]

The only model not on board is the ICON

[Stratton23]

Ensemble support is definitely growing for an impactful winter storm

[Gotwood]

Ensemble support is definitely growing for an impactful winter storm

My body is ready.

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2012943460479668428?s=20
From Ryan Maue

[txtwister78]

With a 1051 arctic HP centered over the Midwest Friday you can bet on a colder deeper into Texas outcome than what Euro currently has now. Obviously that will impact precip type further south.

Textbook winter storm event with an active southern jet.