Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Snowman67]

With a 1051 arctic HP centered over the Midwest Friday you can bet on a colder deeper into Texas outcome than what Euro currently has now. Obviously that will impact precip type further south.

Textbook winter storm event with an active southern jet.

Which would put SE TX in play potentially for freezing rain/sleet

[rwfromkansas]

You know it's getting serious when I switch from my phone to my laptop so I can see the pretty maps bigger. Lol.

So, we have UK, Canadian, GFS, Euro on board. The missing piece is ICON. But, that's pretty good agreement. The only wrinkle is if the energy gets delayed or comes out faster than modeled. We know the cold will come in faster than modeled.

What we need is for it to not be so far south that a coastal low forms to rob everybody north.

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/JamesBryantWX/status/2012 ... 70662?s=20

[bubba hotep]

I don't think I've ever seen a 12z cycle like today, where basically all the major models trended toward agreement on a storm. Usually, it takes a while for them all to fall in line.

[DukeMu]

Wow both the GFS and CMC are showing a major winter storm within 150 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/YThtsGNd/gfs-mvslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/jP3z47F8/gemf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png

CMC nailed Feb. 2021. Fingers crossed.

[DukeMu]

https://x.com/JamesBryantWX/status/2012927281115570662?s=20

Yep. The cold air will overperform. It's a matter of timing and the moisture column.

[wxman57]

Wow both the GFS and CMC are showing a major winter storm within 150 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/YThtsGNd/gfs-mvslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/jP3z47F8/gemf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png

CMC nailed Feb. 2021. Fingers crossed.

In Houston, the Canadian was about 20 degrees too cold in 2021. It was the absolute worst model for cold here. Same last year. It doesn't do well in SE TX. It's 12Z run January 3rd of 2025 had Houston down to 11F in 3-4 days. However, the low was 37. Second worst was the Euro AI model, which doesn't do well with Arctic air - it was way too warm.

[rwfromkansas]

Today's 12Z GFS does erode the cold up north quicker after the storm than yesterday's run, which may have implications for staying power for the cold. As long as it connects to the trough enough to bleed cold for a storm, that's all we really need though. If it's significant it will still be a mess for even Monday.

[Ntxw]

Wave 1 and 2 attacking the SPV to start Feb.

[wxman57]

12Z EC has over 1.5 inches of ice (sleet/freezing rain) across the D-FW area east through northern LA next Sat/Sun. Snow stays north of the area. That would be fun. Highs in the mid-20s next weekend up in D-FW. Sound like fun? Give me 100 degrees any day over that kind of mess.

For Houston, a light freeze Sunday (like this morning) and upper 20s next Monday. Just rain across SE TX, which is a good thing. I want the 70s that it promised me on the 00Z run back...

[txtwister78]

With a 1051 arctic HP centered over the Midwest Friday you can bet on a colder deeper into Texas outcome than what Euro currently has now. Obviously that will impact precip type further south.

Textbook winter storm event with an active southern jet.

Which would put SE TX in play potentially for freezing rain/sleet

Potentially however these setups when it comes to shallower arctic airmaases are always harder to game when it comes to the SE Texas region especially Houston metro points east into western Louisiana.

As I've mentioned previously during these outbreaks, cold air typically dams up against the Quachita moutain range in Arkansas and delays it south so as is the case with these events you often get arctic air delivered faster into the HC and SC TX region before it bleeds into SE TX as a result of that topography.

There are other factors however that can remove some of that (upper level assistance for example) but more times than not that's a legitimate impediment for ice along the SE coastal regions in particular.

[Sambucol2024]

Yup the Euro caved to the GFS/ CMC, things are getting fun now folks

Will the winter storm shown in the latest run move down to the upper Texas coast? All the green, does it change to freezing rain, sleet, or ice?

[Gotwood]

With a 1051 arctic HP centered over the Midwest Friday you can bet on a colder deeper into Texas outcome than what Euro currently has now. Obviously that will impact precip type further south.

Textbook winter storm event with an active southern jet.

Your post brings gladness to my heart haha.

[Wthrfan]

YIKES
(black outlines means screenshotted)
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkSYO.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkSYO.png

We need the precip to head a little further north!

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 it depends on where you are, its much more difficult to get frozen precipitation right at the coast because the gulf waters have some warm influence, but i will say though as txtwister78 mentioned, when you got a 1050+ Arctic high in the central plains, thats some really big cold that the global models arent going to see well, dont be surprised to see temperatures come in colder on future runs, and if our storm system holds, expect to see frozen precipitation show up for all of SE texas and possibly down to south texas

[txtwister78]

With a 1051 arctic HP centered over the Midwest Friday you can bet on a colder deeper into Texas outcome than what Euro currently has now. Obviously that will impact precip type further south.

Textbook winter storm event with an active southern jet.

Your post brings gladness to my heart haha.

Lol!

[txtwister78]

Sambucol2024 it depends on where you are, its much more difficult to get frozen precipitation right at the coast because the gulf waters have some warm influence, but i will say though as txtwister78 mentioned, when you got a 1050+ Arctic high in the central plains, thats some really big cold that the global models arent going to see well, dont be surprised to see temperatures come in colder on future runs, and if our storm system holds, expect to see frozen precipitation show up for all of SE texas and possibly down to south texas

Yeah definitely not out of the question if you get a much more colder airmass to just overwhelm and more importantly timing of precip is a bit more critical across that region for the reasons mentioned above.

[Quixotic]

3” of sleet would be awful. Cobblestone 2003/2013 all over again.

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol2024 it depends on where you are, its much more difficult to get frozen precipitation right at the coast because the gulf waters have some warm influence, but i will say though as txtwister78 mentioned, when you got a 1050+ Arctic high in the central plains, thats some really big cold that the global models arent going to see well, dont be surprised to see temperatures come in colder on future runs, and if our storm system holds, expect to see frozen precipitation show up for all of SE texas and possibly down to south texas

We are near Mont Belvieu, not close to the coastline, between Houston and Beaumont. Decided to go ahead and start a few winter preps today.

[DukeMu]

Wow both the GFS and CMC are showing a major winter storm within 150 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/YThtsGNd/gfs-mvslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/jP3z47F8/gemf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png

CMC nailed Feb. 2021. Fingers crossed.

In Houston, the Canadian was about 20 degrees too cold in 2021. It was the absolute worst model for cold here. Same last year. It doesn't do well in SE TX. It's 12Z run January 3rd of 2025 had Houston down to 11F in 3-4 days. However, the low was 37. Second worst was the Euro AI model, which doesn't do well with Arctic air - it was way too warm.

Nailed it in College Station. We hit two 5°F lows. 6 inches of snow. Temps were below freezing all week. A once in a lifetime event. The Canadian also nailed for CLL the Jan. 2021 snow - another 5-6 inch of snow event.

The temp. gradient was steep in Feb. 2021, but the cold was enough to cause a once in a lifetime power outage.