Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Tammie]

Yeah crippling sleet/ice storm deep into Texas on this run. All the way down to Interstate 10 and even points south.

Yeah that would have a significant societal impact!

Some of you know that in my day job I’m involved with state emergency management planning/response. Going to be an interesting week at work.

My oldest son works the power grid for CoServe Electric in North Texas. This could make for an interesting weekend for him! Geesh!

[Wthrfan]

Okay wow Euro, all that snow is from one storm, I've never seen the Euro this aggressive

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkbz5.png

Please let this happen little 6 lb 8 oz baby J!

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS rolling, nearly 80% of the members have a winter storm across the state

[Ntxw]

[orangeblood]

AI GFS goes off the rails with a Major Arctic Outbreak to finish out the month, a lot on the table with this upcoming pattern change



1054 HP into the panhandle

[gpsnowman]

AI GFS goes off the rails with a Major Arctic Outbreak to finish out the month, a lot on the table with this upcoming pattern change

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/t2m_f/1768759200/1769688000-tUpjCWCuvzs.png

1054 HP into the panhandle
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/mslp/1768759200/1769688000-tgNExqZZUfE.png

My goodness. A very interesting week ahead for us weather nuts!!

[HockeyTx82]

AI GFS goes off the rails with a Major Arctic Outbreak to finish out the month, a lot on the table with this upcoming pattern change

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/t2m_f/1768759200/1769688000-tUpjCWCuvzs.png

1054 HP into the panhandle
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/mslp/1768759200/1769688000-tgNExqZZUfE.png

My goodness. A very interesting week ahead for us weather nuts!!

Those AI models are new, right? What's the overall thought on them in terms of performance?

[rwfromkansas]

That is absolutely BONKERS. Just beyond nuts. It would definitely go against the idea of a quick warm-up so will have to see if the physics models trend that way.

[Iceresistance]

AI GFS goes off the rails with a Major Arctic Outbreak to finish out the month, a lot on the table with this upcoming pattern change

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/t2m_f/1768759200/1769688000-tUpjCWCuvzs.png

1054 HP into the panhandle
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/mslp/1768759200/1769688000-tgNExqZZUfE.png

There's no way it's above zero with a 1054 mb HP

[Stratton23]

Yeah you get that strong of an arctic high near the panhandle, youre talking about near february 2021 territory in terms of temperatures, im certainly not saying that will happen, but this is starting to look more like a serious event this weekend, we need that cold air to come in deeper in the column so that its more snow/sleet compared to ice

[Snowman67]

A classic long duration overrunning winter storm.

https://i.ibb.co/7xtcg3VW/gfss-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21.png
https://i.ibb.co/1fjqT3rF/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-23.png
https://i.ibb.co/1Y3Z9qHK/gfssas-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-24.png
https://i.ibb.co/rfKD99N8/gfs-dmslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png

That last frame is great bike riding weather for WxMan 57

[Harp.1]

Yeah you get that strong of an arctic high near the panhandle, youre talking about near february 2021 territory in terms of temperatures, im certainly not saying that will happen, but this is starting to look more like a serious event this weekend, we need that cold air to come in deeper in the column so that its more snow/sleet compared to ice

Is there any possibility of that happening?

[Cpv17]

AI GFS goes off the rails with a Major Arctic Outbreak to finish out the month, a lot on the table with this upcoming pattern change

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/t2m_f/1768759200/1769688000-tUpjCWCuvzs.png

1054 HP into the panhandle
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/mslp/1768759200/1769688000-tgNExqZZUfE.png

There's no way it's above zero with a 1054 mb HP

Yeah, those temps are way off. It would be significantly colder than that if there was a 1054MB high there.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 I definitely can say it isnt a 0% chance, the threat of extreme dangerous cold is definitely rising, the next few days are going to be interesting to say the least, im not sure how ill be able to sleep lol

[Cpv17]

Harp.1 I definitely can say it isnt a 0% chance, the threat of extreme dangerous cold is definitely rising, the next few days are going to be interesting to say the least, im not sure how ill be able to sleep lol

Brother, you’re gonna need to pop some Trazodone this week to get some sleep

[Ntxw]

AI GFS goes off the rails with a Major Arctic Outbreak to finish out the month, a lot on the table with this upcoming pattern change

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/t2m_f/1768759200/1769688000-tUpjCWCuvzs.png

1054 HP into the panhandle
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ai/scentus/mslp/1768759200/1769688000-tgNExqZZUfE.png

My goodness. A very interesting week ahead for us weather nuts!!

Those AI models are new, right? What's the overall thought on them in terms of performance?

Think they will improve over time as they are 'learning.' They have resolution issues and we don't have enough information on what initiation they have or biases yet. Can be a good comparison tool vs op.

[Ntxw]

After spending seemingly an eternity positive the EPO has gone very negative. Likely even more so, in tandem with a -AO, the strongest negative of the winter. The torch is over.

EPO

Code: Select all

2026 01 02  -72.74
2026 01 03   11.43
2026 01 04  113.47
2026 01 05  210.12
2026 01 06  299.15
2026 01 07  273.75
2026 01 08  173.12
2026 01 09  113.94
2026 01 10  150.65
2026 01 11  143.78
2026 01 12  113.81
2026 01 13   56.29
2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34

[Quixotic]

https://i.imgur.com/h8NRARi.png

Is that an ensemble?

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/h8NRARi.png

Is that an ensemble?

Yeah ensembles mean GEFS 18z. Snow depth can sometimes be more telling than snowfall amounts. They are saying surface is well below freezing, retention.

[Quixotic]

After spending seemingly an eternity positive the EPO has gone very negative. Likely even more so, in tandem with a -AO, the strongest negative of the winter. The torch is over.

EPO

Code: Select all

2026 01 02  -72.74
2026 01 03   11.43
2026 01 04  113.47
2026 01 05  210.12
2026 01 06  299.15
2026 01 07  273.75
2026 01 08  173.12
2026 01 09  113.94
2026 01 10  150.65
2026 01 11  143.78
2026 01 12  113.81
2026 01 13   56.29
2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34

https://i.imgur.com/pBDtL9p.png

Almost too good to be true. Like the storm in January of last year.