Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

With two disturbances, does anybody worry about one shearing out the other? I mean a phase would be like almost unprecedented.

I will say I definitely have the memories of recent events where the Arctic air flooded the area dried up the precip rather quickly and there wasnt a big event. Yeah it snowed but not historic or anything. The story was the wind chills and the fact it was 5 degrees in the middle of the day we saw this in February last year... In January of 2024... In December 2022... To me that's the fail mode up here. That it dries up

In January last year the cold air was marginal to begin with so that was different. It was so warm here the snow wasn't even sticking til it got dark but somehow it was the biggest snowstorm in years

We'll just have to see if the big ensemble members can hang on for a few days. That's my big issue and why I'm cautious is how far away it is

Believe me how aggressive the models are has my attention but at the end of the day it's still next weekend when this weekend isn't even fully over yet

Agreed. Suppression is the big fear quickly followed quickly by the warm nose which turned up in last years storm. The big models are about to head into the time frame where they struggle with it run to run. Just the ensembles are worth a hoot.

[bubba hotep]

With two disturbances, does anybody worry about one shearing out the other? I mean a phase would be like almost unprecedented.

IMO, the biggest threat is the TPV pushing too far Southwest into the Great Lakes, and then our systems shearing out into the base. That's a common issue with these TPV dirven cold blasts, but the subtropical jet looks pretty stout for this upcoming period.

[Texas Snow]

For any newbies, this is the period where everything looks great today and you wake up tomorrow and it looks like it’s all over with wxman57 showing it being 80 now. Then before bedtime tomorrow models will come back and everyone gets excited again. The roller coaster will continue for a couple days. That’s why people love going to amusement parks though, it’s exciting.

[bubba hotep]

FWD was very conservative in the afternoon AFD.

[Cpv17]

FWD was very conservative in the afternoon AFD.

I feel like that’s common this far out.

[JayDT]

FWD was very conservative in the afternoon AFD.

I noticed that too. I wanted to see what they had to say about it, but not even a little hint or anything.

[Cpv17]

For any newbies, this is the period where everything looks great today and you wake up tomorrow and it looks like it’s all over with wxman57 showing it being 80 now. Then before bedtime tomorrow models will come back and everyone gets excited again. The roller coaster will continue for a couple days. That’s why people love going to amusement parks though, it’s exciting.

We have a long ways to go with this one. I’m not getting my hopes up yet that’s for damn sure.

[Brent]

FWD was very conservative in the afternoon AFD.

I feel like that’s common this far out.

Yeah I was quite surprised to see Tulsa posting stuff already

But maybe it's slightly more clear up here... I mean I don't expect temperatures to be the problem if we're above 20 degrees on Saturday at this point it'll be shocking

[HockeyTx82]

FWD was very conservative in the afternoon AFD.

I feel like that’s common this far out.

Yeah I was quite surprised to see Tulsa posting stuff already

But maybe it's slightly more clear up here... I mean I don't expect temperatures to be the problem here

My forecast from them on my grid shows mid 50s for highs on Saturday still.

[Brent]

I feel like that’s common this far out.

Yeah I was quite surprised to see Tulsa posting stuff already

But maybe it's slightly more clear up here... I mean I don't expect temperatures to be the problem here

My forecast from them on my grid shows mid 50s for highs on Saturday still.

Mid 30s up here still. Yeah well see how well that goes. Not well I'm assuming

But I mean their graphics are talking about a legit winter storm. You can see the odds decreasing towards Texas though

[TomballEd]

The Happy Hour ice storm would take down a lot of trees and powerlines. I know Beryl exposed just how bad CenterPoint is, but even with all the fixes they claim to make my power blinks off or goes off like its Third World. DFW and Austin have much better distribution nextworks.

[bubba hotep]

00z ICON trends towards the other models compared to the 12z run.

[DukeMu]

Potentially however these setups when it comes to shallower arctic airmaases are always harder to game when it comes to the SE Texas region especially Houston metro points east into western Louisiana.

As I've mentioned previously during these outbreaks, cold air typically dams up against the Quachita moutain range in Arkansas and delays it south so as is the case with these events you often get arctic air delivered faster into the HC and SC TX region before it bleeds into SE TX as a result of that topography.

There are other factors however that can remove some of that (upper level assistance for example) but more times than not that's a legitimate impediment for ice along the SE coastal regions in particular.

The Ouachita shadow effect is pretty weak. The Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma are maybe 2000 feet in altitude (the base is close to 1000 feet, up to 2500 feet in altitude in Ark...but cold air easily spills through passes and over the weathered down, old mountains. There may be a slight phase delay, but Shreveport is colder than Dallas. Also, air on the other side would be turbulent, lowering pressure and attracting more cold air. Air acts as a fluid, just like water. The effects are short-lived and minimal.

Also, the vector of arctic air spilling down east of the Rockies is from the NNW, avoiding the Oachitas which are lower in altitude than land west of OKC.

The GoM has by far the greatest modifying effect on cold, shallow air.

Disagree in terms of their effect. That "shadow effect" definitely impacts how fast arctic cold gets into those areas because well I've seen it occur during multiple events and secondly it makes sense via the topography due to the shallow nature of the cold.

Modifying the cold is different than timing and so yes of course the gulf plays a role with that naturally but in terms of timing/precip which this far south is always the critical question when it comes to forecasting winter precip "delayed" can mean all the difference from frozen points west where that impediment doesn't factor in to liquid where it does as a result of that shadow effect.

That's what a "phase delay" is.

Slowed, but the impact is there.

[gpsnowman]

We will find out more In about an hour and then two hours after that. Puzzle pieces every little bit. The thousand piece jigsaw is only 20% complete.

[Ntxw]

Like Bubba just said, ICON finally onboard. Mid 20s and icy...brrr.

[DukeMu]

The shadow effect is very real. I was heartbroken a few times in my childhood and teen years from the shadow effect.

Thanksgiving 1993 was a good example. Dallas got pounded by sleet. Longview got a cold rain until the very end then a brief burst of sleet. The mountains “saved” Longview from a major event.

The Sleet Bowl. Evidently, a blue norther that came from the NW (low and cold got to Dallas first). The Ouachitas would likely not have been relevant. There might have been a SW flow around the low that brought warmer Gulf air to Longview.

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/thesleetbowlnovember25th1993

[DukeMu]

I don't like it either

https://twitter.com/i/status/2012956022067908854

My experience with ice storms - we got 2-3 every winter in NC is that they are not that widespread. Usually a strip.

[DukeMu]

00z ICON trends towards the other models compared to the 12z run.

Everyone is buying in for now.

The moisture will be there. How shallow and how cold remain to be seen. I'm hoping climo will yield a more snow-like solution rather than icy.

The more likely scenario is a rain - ice - snow down to NW Harris Co.

[TheAustinMan]

Oooh... interesting synoptic pattern for the weekend's potential event for sure... big longwave trough over the eastern US/eastern Canada allowing cold air to push south across the Central US while a possible trough over Baja / SW US supplies moisture over the progressing cold to set up the possible overrunning event. That synoptic pattern itself definitely has my attention (it's one resembling some of the wintry weather patterns of years past), though it'll be sensitive to the placement of the moisture-supplying trough and of course on temperatures with the possible late-week cold surge.

It's not often that you see cold air being associated with the most precipitation in the ensemble guidance, but that seems to be the case in the latest ensemble scenarios (minimum temperature anomalies from the ensemble mean depicted below, so it's not just cloud cover that's responsible):


The scenarios depicted above appear to be tied to the strength of the secondary trough over Baja/SW US. The more amplified trough outcomes below are associated with the cold/wet outcomes above (that is, Scenarios 1 and 3 below are the same as Scenarios 1 and 3 in the above image):


In general, the ensembles that depict the more amplified trough this weekend are correlated with stronger ridging over the Beaufort Sea and northwestern Canada on Wednesday. Whether that means temperatures reach levels necessary for wintry weather remains to be seen, but this ensemble sensitivity analysis provides some clues as to what we could be watching for in advance.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS staying on course, full on winter storm, another run with a devasting ice storm from san antonio to houston……