Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

My forecast Saturday went from mid 30s to low 20s in one update

Yeah my weather channel app dropped to a High of 23 on Saturday low of 10 with 3-5 inches of snow. It is also picking up the other system later in the week. Interesting times ahead.

[Lagreeneyes03]

What are the chances of ERCOT issues this go around, especially if the coldest forecasts verify? I know "they say" they are prepared but with the AI data centers and Crypto mining plus extra population, I'm not confident.

Good thing is thanks to this board, and the advice given by my elders, our losses in 2021 were minimum. (water turned off early, mainly). Only thing we failed on was prepping for 5 days no power and ran out of firewood. I'll be slowly building up the wood supply this week, and we have since bought a 3000 w generator to hook up to a car, and our Ford Explorer has some kind of a power supply in the back/trunk compartment I believe we can use as well. As a last resort, I also know which hotels out at DFW are not going to lose power as they're connected to the airport grid, in case I give up and just want a room.

[wxman22]

Yikes!

[hurricane2025]

Euro isn’t to gungo on southeast Texas keeps it north

[wxman22]

Norman is onboard.Norman already has a 40% chance of snow Friday and Saturday here.

[Brent]

Norman is onboard.Norman already has a 40% chance of snow Friday and Saturday here.

https://i.ibb.co/JRDGrMzN/5ee.png

https://i.ibb.co/pBZttX4J/617197444-1349206403905858-6512195606596471529-n.jpg

This is crazy to me. Tulsa has always been a conservative office that I remember. I wouldn't be surprised if they issue watches early if the models don't change

[wxman22]

The 6z Euro.Remarkable model consistency so far.LOL notice that the air is so shallow that the freezing line is struggling to cross the mountains of west Texas.

[jaguars_22]

Yep I was fixing to say south central Texas south of i10 is starting to see Lucy taking the football away!!! Cold rain for us in Victoria

[Brent]

The 6z Euro.Remarkable model consistency so far.LOL notice that the air is so shallow that the freezing line is struggling to cross the mountains of west Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/gFjWqYWt/ecmwf-ptype-3h-slp-tx-126.png
https://i.ibb.co/XkZqV9Lq/ecmwf-ptype-3h-slp-tx-132.png
https://i.ibb.co/gbx8H2sf/ecmwf-ptype-3h-slp-tx-138.png

It's so weird to me seeing the Euro better than the GFS

And also I remember last week the Euro was showing hints of a big front on and off the GFS never did

Even the ensembles here the EPS is snowier than the GEFS

It's very bizarre to me

[cajungal]

If Euro is correct, this looks like it will be a non event for Houston and most of Louisiana. With the ice being contained to the northern part of the state.

[jaguars_22]

I’m starting to see the upper level low try and beat the cold air… also why would the freezing line not make it past west Texas? Do we expect the models will be too warm?

Yep cajungal looks like it won’t make it down to us!

[cajungal]

I’m starting to see the upper level low try and beat the cold air… also why would the freezing line not make it past west Texas? Do we expect the models will be too warm?

Yep cajungal looks like it won’t make it down to us!

While I didn’t want ice, I did want something exciting besides the extremely boring weather we been having.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yep I was fixing to say south central Texas south of i10 is starting to see Lucy taking the football away!!! Cold rain for us in Victoria

Stop with the model to model hugging.

I’m probably going to have to check out for a few days with people doing that.

Gotta read the frames. The freezing rain makes it down to I10 in the frames after what’s posted.

And the models won’t handle the push of freezing air well. Usually onsets quicker

[Ntxw]

GEFS keeps ticking upwards both qpf and frozen amounts each run. This is now only 4-5 days away.

WPC also went from nearly nothing to >1" qpf for a wide region, recipe for a major winter weather event.

[Brent]

Yep I was fixing to say south central Texas south of i10 is starting to see Lucy taking the football away!!! Cold rain for us in Victoria

Stop with the model to model hugging.

I’m probably going to have to check out for a few days with people doing that.

Gotta read the frames. The freezing rain makes it down to I10 in the frames after what’s posted.

And the models won’t handle the push of freezing air well. Usually onsets quicker

Seriously my forecast went 20 degrees colder in one cycle. If it can do that in 12 hours who knows in 4 days. The models always suck with this

Two days ago this storm wasn't even happening even up here. I only had like 50 percent of the ensembles even showing a flurry haha

[Ntxw]

Yep I was fixing to say south central Texas south of i10 is starting to see Lucy taking the football away!!! Cold rain for us in Victoria

Stop with the model to model hugging.

I’m probably going to have to check out for a few days with people doing that.

Gotta read the frames. The freezing rain makes it down to I10 in the frames after what’s posted.

And the models won’t handle the push of freezing air well. Usually onsets quicker

Seriously my forecast went 20 degrees colder in one cycle. If it can do that in 12 hours who knows in 4 days

Anything can happen here

Qpf and some of these temps reminds me of Feb 2011, but colder. Not the secondary Nowata all time low but first front.

[Ntxw]

With these very high qpf and very cold temps, someone in the goldilocks zone could see a potential historic event, if the moisture stands.

[orangeblood]

Looks like December 2013 but for a much wider area across the state

[Ntxw]

The arctic front will be at our doorstep Friday, through most of Oklahoma.

[wxman22]

This upcoming storm also has some similarities to the Feb 2022 storm.