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Tireman4 wrote:I am not buying it just quite yet ( for SE Texas). First, it is very hard to get frozen P Type moisture down here. Second, it is even harder to predict it down here. Third, so many variables have to go into it for frozen P type to verify. That being said, the trend is your friend. If the models ( for me) show frozen P Type Thursday onwards, I start buying. Also, Wxman57 and I have generators. Big smile.
Yes, no power outage for us. I've plotted all available models (operational, ensembles, and AI) for Sat-Mon. UKMET and GFS-AI are 30-40 degrees warmer than other models for Saturday (70s vs. mid 30s). Canadian is bonkers cold again, with 10F for Monday while all models are clustered in the 26-29 deg range. Have to throw out the Canadian, for sure. UKMET and GFS-AI match the other models by Sunday. They're both too slow with FROPA.
I see the Fort Worth NWS office is saying a 40% chance of precip? Huh? How about 100%. Unless every single model is wrong, there will be precip Sat/Sun. Only question is the precip type. Current models favor snow staying north of the D-FW area, with most of the precip across Texas falling as freezing rain and sleet. Kind of similar to that big ice storm of 2021, though not as severe.
For the Houston area, I'd expect some freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday, making roads slick. I think the GFS is too heavy with the ZR/sleet amounts (I hope it is). Temps hovering a bit above freezing Saturday afternoon/evening and around 30F for Sunday morning. Above freezing Sunday PM then maybe 25-28 Monday morning.
