Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

It moves everything to the east quicker

That's it, I'll see you guys in the summer thread.......

[orangeblood]

It moves everything to the east quicker

It still is cutting off the Baja Low, that solution doesn’t have much support if any from its ensembles

[Harp.1]

It moves everything to the east quicker

It still is cutting off the Baja Low, that solution doesn’t have any support if any from its ensembles

Ok. Just an observation on my part. It’s the happy hour gfs after all!

[Stratton23]

yup, i can smell the “ its over “ comments coming soon lol, never fails, but seriously if i wont be surprised to see short range guidance come in colder and more aggressive south with wintery precipitation

[txtwister78]

[hurricane2025]

Euro is winning right now

[Edwards Limestone]

Looks like another east TX/gulf coast/Louisiana event. I have zero expectations for anything here in New Braunfels. The drought has taken hold here even stronger these days.

[Stratton23]

Ill be back when the short range models kick the global models butts with surface temperatures, global modes do not have the resolution to see this shallow cold air at the surface like models like the NAM/ HRRR have, if i was a betting man, id bet my next pay check global models are going to be at least 5-6 degrees too warm

[rwfromkansas]

GFS seems to be all over the place, so leaning Euro now. If it trends toward that, then ugh. We have had moments like this before where something looked like a sure thing and boom, it goes.

[txtwister78]

Looks like another east TX/gulf coast/Louisiana event. I have zero expectations for anything here in New Braunfels. The drought has taken hold here even stronger these days.

This doesn't have anything to do with the drought brother. We're definitely getting "something" out of this. Just a question of how cold and in what form regarding ice potential.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks like another east TX/gulf coast/Louisiana event. I have zero expectations for anything here in New Braunfels. The drought has taken hold here even stronger these days.

This doesn't have anything to do with the drought brother. We're definitely getting "something" out of this. Just a question of how cold and in what form regarding ice potential.

Yeah, you’re seeing precip this weekend in NB.

[wxman22]

GFS seems to be all over the place, so leaning Euro now. If it trends toward that, then ugh. We have had moments like this before where something looked like a sure thing and boom, it goes.

Am I missing something? The GFS still shows a major storm.

[Ntxw]

GFS seems to be all over the place, so leaning Euro now. If it trends toward that, then ugh. We have had moments like this before where something looked like a sure thing and boom, it goes.

You're in a good place for a high chance at winter precipitation. It's further south where temp profiles go back and forth each run. What's happening is the GFS this run is a little warmer, and a bit less qpf (from major to significant) it's still margin of error type stuff in 18z run. GFS has been doing different in terms of ULL feature out west but the slug of moisture still rides over the dome.

[Stratton23]

Heck even on this GFS run, it keeps me at about 33 degrees when the precipitation is falling, we are talking a very very thin line here with some locations, just a couple degrees difference and its a whole new ball game

[bubba hotep]

It moves everything to the east quicker

It still is cutting off the Baja Low, that solution doesn’t have much support if any from its ensembles

18z ICON trended that way some, but you have to extrapolate out from 120h. The 18z 12K NAM looks more like the 12z Euro. Splitting hairs, but I don't see the cutoff and left behind scenario as being that concerning right now.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS seems to be all over the place, so leaning Euro now. If it trends toward that, then ugh. We have had moments like this before where something looked like a sure thing and boom, it goes.

Am I missing something? The GFS still shows a major storm.

I was looking at its QPF placement for snow, it has moved around a lot.

Yes, it still looks big.

[Ntxw]

18z GEFS is even wetter than 12z, and snow means is further south. I'd be thinking about suppression up in Oklahoma.

[wxman57]

GFS seems to be all over the place, so leaning Euro now. If it trends toward that, then ugh. We have had moments like this before where something looked like a sure thing and boom, it goes.

Am I missing something? The GFS still shows a major storm.

18Z GFS keeps the snow north of D-FW now, but it has about .25-.5" of sleet and freezing rain up there. It has all rain for Houston. We'll see a lot of flip-flopping over the next 2-3 days. The cold air hasn't even started to move south yet.

[txtwister78]

GEFS also slightly warmer and the difference is the orientation of the arctic high the GEFS has between the 12z and 18z run where we're on that western periphery of the arctic air and with this being a shallow airmass things can change very quickly at the surface with these subtle but significant changes further south.

[rwfromkansas]

Even Evan Andrews is pretty bullish, says it's 95 percent certain to happen now.

Says he's leaning more snow up north and into DFW it sounds like than what models show.