Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

Regardless still cold enough for northern areas down into central sections but need to watch trends the next few runs

[Ntxw]

Precip shield is gradually tightening.

[txtwister78]

Precip shield is gradually tightening.

https://i.imgur.com/WeRA9IY.gif

Continues to supress though which again you would expect with that much cold pushing especially further NE you get

[Ntxw]

Precip shield is gradually tightening.

https://i.imgur.com/WeRA9IY.gif

Continues to supress though which again you would expect with that much cold pushing especially further NE you get

Yeah it looked too broad, even the Euro, in real world it seldom plays that way. Probably a few hundred miles along 700-850 boundary where warm air meets cold is what will probably happen.

[bubba hotep]

18z GEFS is even wetter than 12z, and snow means is further south. I'd be thinking about suppression up in Oklahoma.

Pretty much in line with the 12z EPS.

18z GEFS



12z EPS

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS is even wetter than 12z, and snow means is further south. I'd be thinking about suppression up in Oklahoma.

I hope we don't get suppressed, I would be super mad if we get suppression bust for the snow

In other news, KOCO has shown an air temperature of -14°F Monday morning with that snowpack

[txtwister78]

[TomballEd]

Its warmer. One off hour run doesn't make a trend but 12Z runs had less precip below freezing IMBY, this now has none. DFW still gets over half an inch of freezing/frozen precip. so this is still a big ticket event even if low level temps verify perfectly. Extrapolating a row of counties S for HOU/DWH puts some freezing rain into northern Harris County a few hours after moderate rain which would wash away the CaCl2 salt TXDOT would put down and any amount of ice on say the TX 99 flyovers would cause accidents.

Lesson from the 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard in NYC/NE. Sabbath observant Jewish posters logged off a weather forum Friday afternoon saddened because 12Z (and 18Z regional) models had cancelled the blizzard. Those people logged back on Saturday evening to Blizzard Warnings. Warnings which verified. Model swings are probably not as big now 15 years later but they still happen.

I'm not dropping the guard in Houston, especially if I want to beat the crowds watching rip and read forecasts on KPRC 2 or KTRK 13 (at least some of the KHOU mets have met/atmospheric science BS degrees) in case I do need to stock up at HEB or Aldi. Because the trend 12Z/18Z has 4 days left to turn the other way. Row of counties S with the freeze line moves Austin from trace amounts of FZRA back into ice storm territory.

[snownado]

18z GEFS is even wetter than 12z, and snow means is further south. I'd be thinking about suppression up in Oklahoma.

While unlikely, beside suppresison, another possible (although low probability) solution would simply be widespread cold but non-freezing rain with air temps hovering around 30-32 (which would really limit accretion), and perhaps advisory criteria snow at best in OK.

As discussed, the OP 18z GFS took a step in this direction.

[Ntxw]

18z GEFS is even wetter than 12z, and snow means is further south. I'd be thinking about suppression up in Oklahoma.

While unlikely, beside suppresison, another possible (although low probability) solution would simply be widespread cold but non-freezing rain with air temps hovering around 30-32 (which would really limit accretion), and perhaps advisory criteria snow at best in OK.

As discussed, the OP 18z GFS took a step in this direction.

Strength of HP, unless it is significantly reduced quickly, usually doesn't favor that outcome. Which would mean the TPV exits off the Lakes before arrival of the upper jet. This kind of happened last year when DFW missed the biggest snows just to the north. This 500mb flow, as it is modeled now, much more anomalous at the cold source.

[rwfromkansas]

Do the new GEFS runs close off the low like the OP?

Many heavy hitters there still.

[dhweather]

FWD calling for Saturday night / Sunday morning lows of 11 degrees in Heath.

[snownado]

18z GEFS is even wetter than 12z, and snow means is further south. I'd be thinking about suppression up in Oklahoma.

While unlikely, beside suppresison, another possible (although low probability) solution would simply be widespread cold but non-freezing rain with air temps hovering around 30-32 (which would really limit accretion), and perhaps advisory criteria snow at best in OK.

As discussed, the OP 18z GFS took a step in this direction.

Strength of HP, unless it is significantly reduced quickly, usually doesn't favor that outcome. Which would mean the TPV exits off the Lakes before arrival of the upper jet. This kind of happened last year when DFW missed the biggest snows just to the north. This 500mb flow, as it is modeled now, much more anomalous at the cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/AM7o0jb.gif

https://i.imgur.com/WHEFUP8.gif

As I said, it is low probability, but still not out of the realm of possible solutions given we're still several days out (and honestly, it's a solution I'd prefer).

EDIT: Should also be noted, models do have a tendency to overdue the strength of HPs in the med/long range (extreme as it still was, even Feb 2021 was expected to have a stronger HP than what occurred).

[Ntxw]

Do the new GEFS runs close off the low like the OP?

Many heavy hitters there still.

The GEFS means is trending the other way, towards the Euro bunch.

[txtwister78]

A little off topic and of course in fantasy land territory but root for that Euro AI 18z run at the end of the month. Lol

[bubba hotep]

18z AIs

[Ntxw]

Torching up in Alaska today, oh how they needed it. They'll torch again in a few weeks when the Aleutian low pumps warm air up there.

[txtwister78]

18z Euro still bringing it. 1052 Arctic high over the Midwest.

[txtwister78]

[Stratton23]

looks like a south shift on the euro