Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Ugh if I'm too far north again I may snap

[txtwister78]

looks like a south shift on the euro

If you get an arctic high positioned like what it has been showing the last few runs, that's going to shift south a little more with time.

[Ntxw]

OTOH DFW will likely pick up another freeze tonight, making it 4 in recent days, doubling the winter total. Should be plenty more the rest of the way. When we look back a tale of two winters halves, Jekyll and Hyde.

[bubba hotep]

looks like a south shift on the euro

QPF field looks very similar to 12z, with the axis of highest totals along the I-20 corridor. It does expand things back west, increasing totals across the Panhandle and out into NM.

[rwfromkansas]

Brent may have good aurora viewing tonight. My sister had a great view up in Kansas the last big one.

[wxman22]

Wow. The 18z Euro shows over 1.5 inches of QPF here.With over 2 inches in DFW. Its crazy that its trending wetter.

[TomballEd]

looks like a south shift on the euro

If Twister 78's Euro is otherwise correct but a row of counties too far N, that puts a tenth of freezing rain into Houston which closer to a quarter around the 99 toll road which, as mentioned, has flyovers. I wait on Tropical Tidbits to more closely look at temps/precips but the ice is closer than the 12Z Euro.

[orangeblood]

Do the new GEFS runs close off the low like the OP?

Many heavy hitters there still.

The GEFS means is trending the other way, towards the Euro bunch.

https://i.imgur.com/vuysspq.png

Same song difference dance with that model…it’s just not that good at 5h compared to the Euro. GEFS mean is about the only option if you look at that model, Op is way too inconsistent

[Harp.1]

Can someone look at the Euro AI and tell me if it’s showing a snow storm along the gulf coast around Feb 1st? Thanks

[orangeblood]

18Z Euro ENS mean - storm total QPF. Unreal!

[Stratton23]

lol that AI Euro AIFS is nuts, another stronger push of arctic air on the 30th with a snow storm lol

[Harp.1]

lol that AI Euro AIFS is nuts, another stronger push of arctic air on the 30th with a snow storm lol

That’s what I meant.

[orangeblood]

lol that AI Euro AIFS is nuts, another stronger push of arctic air on the 30th with a snow storm lol

It collapses the entire Arctic HP ridge down into the lower 48, not entirely out of the realm of possibilities. Several Ens members have been showing this.

[bubba hotep]

If this verified, I would literally get in my truck and fight people from Austin to New Orleans who got 2" or more!

[Iceresistance]

Is there going to be a point where the trends will jump back more northward? I mean, it has to go back north at some point!

[Ralph's Weather]

Is there going to be a point where the trends will jump back more northward? I mean, it has to go back north at some point!

More south seems most likely. This is a big-time Arctic high with an overrunning STJ from the Baja upper low. No strong cyclogenesis to pull this north.

[Iceresistance]

Is there going to be a point where the trends will jump back more northward? I mean, it has to go back north at some point!

More south seems most likely. This is a big-time Arctic high with an overrunning STJ from the Baja upper low. No strong cyclogenesis to pull this north.

I mean, we don't know how strong, because I don't want to be rugpulled by suppression, which would prove that my winter has busted in every single way imaginable. From too warm temperatures and dry air, to too cold by suppression

[ThunderSleetDreams]

If this verified, I would literally get in my truck and fight people from Austin to New Orleans who got 2" or more!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2026011918/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

My poor hometown. Goose egg’d while we get 6. Yeah no.

Is that North Pole sitting over Longview?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

If this verified, I would literally get in my truck and fight people from Austin to New Orleans who got 2" or more!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2026011918/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

You can come shoot hogs in the snow with me in Weimar!

[Ntxw]

Is there going to be a point where the trends will jump back more northward? I mean, it has to go back north at some point!

More south seems most likely. This is a big-time Arctic high with an overrunning STJ from the Baja upper low. No strong cyclogenesis to pull this north.

I mean, we don't know how strong, because I don't want to be rugpulled by suppression, which would prove that my winter has busted in every single way imaginable. From too warm temperatures and dry air, to too cold by suppression

We're all on the same boat you're not alone so far this winter! Look to the arctic front, that's where your snows will likely come from.