Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Harp.1]

By the way, what the Euro AI is showing would include the Texas coast as well. Pay attention, stratton!!

[DukeMu]

Wow. The 18z Euro shows over 1.5 inches of QPF here.With over 2 inches in DFW. Its crazy that its trending wetter.

That is one crazy second wave in fantasyland:

[wxman22]

18z Euro

[rwfromkansas]

I usually use Pivotal but looking at Tropical since it has the 18z Euro free. It still has a lot more precip coming in, even Saturday night, compared to the 12z run. This could be long-duration.

Also, while the QPF is a little less up in OK I would still expect hefty totals OKC south due to higher ratios. There's still decent QPF up there.

[snownado]

If this verified, I would literally get in my truck and fight people from Austin to New Orleans who got 2" or more!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2026011918/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Now that's funny, but it would be a very DFW outcome...

[DukeMu]

I usually use Pivotal but looking at Tropical since it has the 18z Euro free. It still has a lot more precip coming in, even Saturday night, compared to the 12z run. This could be long-duration.

Also, while the QPF is a little less up in OK I would still expect hefty totals OKC south due to higher ratios. There's still decent QPF up there.

2-3 day event. I think we get 60_ hours of freezing temps of below. Godknows what mix will come down.

But the warm nose is shrinking on the 18Z GFS.



https://ibb.co/x8HKxbpJ

[Ntxw]

Their tone lately makes me think WFO FW, OUN, and maybe shreveport will probably pull the trigger on winter storm watches earlier than usual.

28 29
943
FXUS64 KFWD 200023
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
seasonably cool temperatures continuing through Thursday.

- An arctic intrusion will lead to dangerously cold temperatures
and impactful wintry precipitation starting Friday, continuing
into the weekend.

525
FXUS64 KOUN 192245
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
445 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 442 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for rain showers to
return to southeast Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

- Wintry precipitation is possible towards the end of the week
and into the weekend with a strong cold front coupled with a
medium (40-70%) chance for precipitation.

241
FXUS64 KSHV 192337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
537 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 336 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Near-normal temperatures will continue through the workweek
with rain chances returning by Wednesday.

- By Friday, a colder Arctic air mass will shift southward in
combination with a disturbance which could introduce a wintry
mix of precipitation across all of the area this weekend.

- With any wintry precipitation that falls, melting and refreezing
will maintain travel concerns into early next week.

[rwfromkansas]

I usually use Pivotal but looking at Tropical since it has the 18z Euro free. It still has a lot more precip coming in, even Saturday night, compared to the 12z run. This could be long-duration.

Also, while the QPF is a little less up in OK I would still expect hefty totals OKC south due to higher ratios. There's still decent QPF up there.

2-3 day event. I think we get 60_ hours of freezing temps of below. Godknows what mix will come down.

But the warm nose is shrinking on the 18Z GFS.

https://ibb.co/x8HKxbpJ

https://ibb.co/x8HKxbpJ

To me the 700 0 line is further north than 12Z, but the other lines haven't budged.

[Jag95]

A little off topic and of course in fantasy land territory but root for that Euro AI 18z run at the end of the month. Lol

That looks like it may have some level of support in some of the other models.

[katheria]

Another long term member here who rarely posts, this to me looks very similar to Dec 1921 where Hillsboro got hit with 26"

[JayDT]

Their tone lately makes me think WFO FW, OUN, and maybe shreveport will probably pull the trigger on winter storm watches earlier than usual.

28 29
943
FXUS64 KFWD 200023
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
seasonably cool temperatures continuing through Thursday.

- An arctic intrusion will lead to dangerously cold temperatures
and impactful wintry precipitation starting Friday, continuing
into the weekend.

525
FXUS64 KOUN 192245
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
445 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 442 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for rain showers to
return to southeast Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

- Wintry precipitation is possible towards the end of the week
and into the weekend with a strong cold front coupled with a
medium (40-70%) chance for precipitation.

241
FXUS64 KSHV 192337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
537 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 336 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Near-normal temperatures will continue through the workweek
with rain chances returning by Wednesday.

- By Friday, a colder Arctic air mass will shift southward in
combination with a disturbance which could introduce a wintry
mix of precipitation across all of the area this weekend.

- With any wintry precipitation that falls, melting and refreezing
will maintain travel concerns into early next week.

Was thinking the same thing earlier. Their tone really shifted today. They’re sounding a lot more confident this time. Especially considering its still a few days away.

[IcyTundra]

Not expecting to get much all the way down here in Galveston County. Probably just going to be cold and rainy Saturday/Sunday. Honestly I’m fine with it I want no part of a ice storm.

[jasons2k]

Good evening,
I can’t pack my suitcase like WxMan, but I am preparing. We have a lot of pine trees in this area (Montgomery County) and that does not mix well with ice.

[Ralph's Weather]

North Texas could well see the freeze line by midday Friday. The coverage and QPF within a Arctic air mass across the southern half of the USA is near unprecedented. We are looking at a massive portion of the US under winter storm warnings from this.

[Portastorm]

Making up my grocery list and asking Mrs. Portastorm to hit HEB midweek. Once the general public here starts buying what the TV mets are selling … it’ll be widespread panic! LOL. I suspect the NWS will slow roll their forecast as they always do … so the more sensational forecasts likely will be on TV and social media.

[Steve]

Making up my grocery list and asking Mrs. Portastorm to hit HEB midweek. Once the general public here starts buying what the TV mets are selling … it’ll be widespread panic! LOL. I suspect the NWS will slow roll their forecast as they always do … so the more sensational forecasts likely will be on TV and social media.

Got WSP at Jazz Fest. Haha.

[Iceresistance]

Making up my grocery list and asking Mrs. Portastorm to hit HEB midweek. Once the general public here starts buying what the TV mets are selling … it’ll be widespread panic! LOL. I suspect the NWS will slow roll their forecast as they always do … so the more sensational forecasts likely will be on TV and social media.

I'm already plan to stock up well in advance

[Wthrfan]

One Met here said it was going to be -12 Sunday morning in OKC!

[Iceresistance]

One Met here said it was going to be -12 Sunday morning in OKC!

I saw it on KOCO 5

[bubba hotep]

Dr. Maue cranking up the hypemeter...

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2013414624796831928