Texas Winter 2025-2026

[gpsnowman]

Schools will have a difficult call for Friday. If it breaks out early enough, they might as well just call the day. I don't expect school for DFW Monday either if it's as severe as progged. If it's sleet with some snow on top, it will be cold.

Already told my daughter she will be off Monday. I've never been wrong with this as far as school cancellations are concerned, thanks to S2K. I think this continues. She's a senior now so no more of school cancellations for me next winter. Thank God

[jaguars_22]

So if this phases do you guys still see us in the Victoria area of south central Texas seeing anything other than a cold rain? Could we get sleet or a snowy ending? We still think the models are too warm besides the CMC? Also if the ULL moves too fast that means we won’t see much seeing as the cold air will be behind the disturbance

[Ntxw]

0z icon just took a step towards the Euro, phase. Gonna be a big qpf run.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big changes on the ICON through 84 hours. The trailing s/w is diving down through Nevada/Cali into the base of the SW low.

[Ntxw]

This is a pretty hard flip by the icon. Remarkable the convergence of qpf trends.

[Ntxw]

Also with the whole piece coming out there looks like qpf associated with the ULL Sunday, got to watch that.

[Quixotic]

Man NC looks like it’s going to get crushed.

[Stratton23]

ICON With widespread sleet/ ICE all the way down to south texas, wow

[Ntxw]

RGEM joining the club. I got a weird feeling the GFS is going to cave (at 500mb.) It's being stacked against.

[Steve]

Dr. Maue cranking up the hypemeter...

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2013414624796831928

Ryan going obnoxious. Not a surprise. I guess he didn’t add capitalized insane or shocking in his post.

[orangeblood]

RGEM joining the club. I got a weird feeling the GFS is going to cave (at 500mb.) It's being stacked against.

Ha no doubt, Broken record with that model

[rwfromkansas]

I imagine Ryan means such a widespread event with consistent QPF across the wide region, but frankly there have been other big events that did that, too. The impossible wording was silly.

Just watched a video from a storm chaser Adam in DFW. He said he was leaning GFS becasue typically the extreme event doesn't work out, but he said if the GFS trended that way, he would change his mind. Seems like a non-scientific approach to take....yeah, extreme events are rare, but they happen.

[HockeyTx82]

I imagine Ryan means such a widespread event with consistent QPF across the wide region, but frankly there have been other big events that did that, too. The impossible wording was silly.

Just watched a video from a storm chaser Adam in DFW. He said he was leaning GFS becasue typically the extreme event doesn't work out, but he said if the GFS trended that way, he would change his mind. Seems like a non-scientific approach to take....yeah, extreme events are rare, but they happen.

Yeah it's the safe bet because if it bombs out and the GFS is right then he can put a feather in his cap and if not and it caves then he can say well I followed the GFS.

[Harp.1]

RGEM joining the club. I got a weird feeling the GFS is going to cave (at 500mb.) It's being stacked against.

Can you explain? Thanks

[Ntxw]

RGEM joining the club. I got a weird feeling the GFS is going to cave (at 500mb.) It's being stacked against.

Can you explain? Thanks

Statisically when you have 1 thing showing one solution and everything else showing another solution, you would never bet the farm on the one outlier. Can it win? Yes but 99.9% of the time is going to lose. And this is just on the fact at the 500 millibar level this has nothing to do with the actual precip that falls because even the GFS on its own does have wintry precip for many areas. We'll see what the 0z gfs has shortly.

[jaguars_22]

NTXW so if it phases does that mean colder air above? Meaning more snow? Or it just means more moisture?

[Harp.1]

RGEM joining the club. I got a weird feeling the GFS is going to cave (at 500mb.) It's being stacked against.

Can you explain? Thanks

Statisically when you have 1 thing showing one solution and everything else showing another solution, you would never bet the farm on the one outlier. Can it win? Yes but 99.9% of the time is going to lose.

What's it showing that the others aren't? sorry for all the questions. Trying to learn

[Ntxw]

NTXW so if it phases does that mean colder air above? Meaning more snow? Or it just means more moisture?

Cold comes in faster, the storm will be able to pull down the cold alongside the HP. There is also a shot at precip breaking out with ULL itself. And the column is also cooled from the cold pocket aloft, moreso.

Can you explain? Thanks

Statisically when you have 1 thing showing one solution and everything else showing another solution, you would never bet the farm on the one outlier. Can it win? Yes but 99.9% of the time is going to lose.

What's it showing that the others aren't? sorry for all the questions. Trying to learn

It wasnt phasing and kept the upper level low hanging back and never really coming out until much later once the cold has scoured out. That solution was warmer than the others as well as not as much QPF.

[jaguars_22]

Thank you so much for taking the time!!! NTXW you have always been very kind since I have joined this thread over 10 years ago!!! I’m hoping for a winter wonderland all over Texas… let’s cover the entire state white!

[Ntxw]

Looks like the GFS caves. Huge qpf run incoming.