Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Here's a good tool I like to use for these events...representation from the Euro temp cross section forecasts over time for DFW Austin Houston. DFW's look like it can overcome a fairly weak warm nose quickly but Austin and Houston will be difficult to shake unless the deeper cold can get much further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-AUdLgv0BRdY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KAUS/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-H4EQvtbovPE.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KHOU/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-PEkFD3pX2h4.png

Yeah soundings help. That isn't a pretty look for Austin in terms of icing, hoping more of it comes in deeper for sleet.

[orangeblood]

Just a request … can we please clarify what we mean when we say “this is similar to Feb 2021?” I known for those of you who have posted those comments you mean the impact of precipitation in North Texas. But if you can, please clarify.

This event is not appearing like the overall impact on the state of what happened in February 2021 in terms of cold and precipitation. There are a lot of people who legitimately have PTSD after that horrible week. And I bet some are members here or at least readers lurking.

Thanks.

I'm not sure I'd agree with that statement quite yet , models continue to get colder with heavy precip lingering. It may not be as long lasting as 2021 but arguably a bigger punch for 2/3rds of the state. Just look at the ICON now Sunday morning with heavy precip all across the state, temps in the low 20's all the way in Austin/San Antonio. Major icing from San Antonio to Houston/southeast Texas

[txtwister78]

Just a request … can we please clarify what we mean when we say “this is similar to Feb 2021?” I known for those of you who have posted those comments you mean the impact of precipitation in North Texas. But if you can, please clarify.

This event is not appearing like the overall impact on the state of what happened in February 2021 in terms of cold and precipitation. There are a lot of people who legitimately have PTSD after that horrible week. And I bet some are members here or at least readers lurking.

Thanks.

Great point Porta. I've cautioned using that incredibly high benchmark and I hope folks realize that 2021 was a once in a lifetime weather event across the state as a whole and so while yes we can from time to time and obviously will get cold by our standards here, it will not thankfully reach that ceiling. Yes considering the potential for high end impacts of winter precip across such a large portion of the state, this may create some hazards regionally for some pertaining to localized power outages but the 2021 event as a whole is still in a different category in my opinion as it should be.

[wxman22]

Look at all the QPF on the ICON, massive precip shield. A couple of days ago this model was bone dry.

[Ntxw]

Synoptically this looks like a beefed up December 2013, deeper cold. Maybe if Feb 2011 shifted south at 500mb. More qpf than either of those events in the eastern part of the state.

12Z GFS first on deck.

[snownado]

Here's a good tool I like to use for these events...representation from the Euro temp cross section forecasts over time for DFW Austin Houston. DFW's look like it can overcome a fairly weak warm nose quickly but Austin and Houston will be difficult to shake unless the deeper cold can get much further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-AUdLgv0BRdY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KAUS/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-H4EQvtbovPE.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KHOU/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-PEkFD3pX2h4.png

The issue with the warm nose isn't that it's weak, but rather how deep it is.

The screen shot below over Plano at 06z Saturday gives a better depiction. The max temp may only be 1-3*C celsius at best, but the problem is it's a good 5,000ft (800mb to 700mb) of above-freezing air. Even with high precipitation rates, snowflakes aloft will have a hard time surviving that.

[Ralph's Weather]

2021 was longer lasting, we should all get above freezing next week before the end of month storm. This storm looks more impactful precip wise than 2021 for the major population centers and with highs in the teens and low 20s for many followed by legit potential of localized sub 0 temps early next week the peak of the cold looks similar. 2021 was unique as it came in waves with no break in between. This storm will likely go in the record books to be studied by future generations alongside of 2021.

[orangeblood]

Here's a good tool I like to use for these events...representation from the Euro temp cross section forecasts over time for DFW Austin Houston. DFW's look like it can overcome a fairly weak warm nose quickly but Austin and Houston will be difficult to shake unless the deeper cold can get much further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-AUdLgv0BRdY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KAUS/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-H4EQvtbovPE.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KHOU/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-PEkFD3pX2h4.png

The issue with the warm nose isn't that it's weak, but rather how deep it is.

The screen shot below over Plano at 06z Saturday gives a better depiction. The max temp may only be 1-3*C celsius at best, but the problem is it's a good 5,000ft (800mb to 700mb) of above-freezing air. Even with high precipitation rates, snowflakes aloft will have a hard time surviving that.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/xSmrcHDy/Screenshot-2026-01-20-094611.png [/url]

Good point it is a thick layer but if it's 2-3C cooler than modeled which it's trending that direction, it won't matter it'll be cold enough to overcome. It's the most important element in this forecast, the warm nose...it's a difference between a catastrophic ice storm vs heavy snow storm

[Ntxw]

Already some changes on the 12z GFS, compared to 6z the ULL trough to the southwest is further south. Definitely further south than its 0z run.

This run is getting nervous for Oklahoma, verbatim.

[Ralph's Weather]

We are still a couple days away from being able to resolve the difference in a 3C warm nose and a -1C warm nose. Need to get the high res models for that kind of granularity.

[snownado]

At first look, the 12z GFS has dialed it back a bit with the QPF. No real changes thermal-wise though from the overnight model runs.

[Snowman67]

I would definitely prepare for potential issues on the roadways at least for areas as far south as San Antonio and Houston. We've seen these arctic air masses move in stronger and earlier than model projections many times before, and I would expect similar with this upcoming event. The amount of moisture accompanying this cold air is crazy...especially with how dry it's been over the past several months. Confidence continues to increase on a major winter storm across the state.

I'm currently thinking the worst icing concerns will be across central TX, with more sleet and snow mixing in across north TX. Won't be surprised at all to see the heaviest snow and ice accumulations occur south of where the models currently have them.

That is my concern for my area. It seems that more often than not, it ends up being a little colder with these shallow air masses than what is forecasted 3-4 days out.

[HockeyTx82]

Already some changes on the 12z GFS, compared to 6z the ULL trough to the southwest is further south. Definitely further south than its 0z run.

This run is getting nervous for Oklahoma, verbatim.

Oh boy, overall is the moisture still around otherwise or less juiced up for everyone?

[Brent]

Already some changes on the 12z GFS, compared to 6z the ULL trough to the southwest is further south. Definitely further south than its 0z run.

This run is getting nervous for Oklahoma, verbatim.

Of course it agreed with the Euro earlier and now goes the other way

Did I mention I hate snow forecasting

I mean 1-3 last year turned into 7 on the final day...

The GEFS was the snowiest it's been last run here btw.

[orangeblood]

Already some changes on the 12z GFS, compared to 6z the ULL trough to the southwest is further south. Definitely further south than its 0z run.

This run is getting nervous for Oklahoma, verbatim.

It's doing the same error it's been making with the ULL, doesn't phase it. No support from any other models, likely a trash can run

[wxman22]

GFS

[Ntxw]

Already some changes on the 12z GFS, compared to 6z the ULL trough to the southwest is further south. Definitely further south than its 0z run.

This run is getting nervous for Oklahoma, verbatim.

Oh boy, overall is the moisture still around otherwise or less juiced up for everyone?

1-2" qpf for the I-20 corridor east of Abilene and north of I-10 so far. Coverage is a little less expansive to the north into Oklahoma. At 5H the ULL detaches, not like before but after a ~partial phase.

It's still a crazy long precipitation event though all the way through to Monday.

[snownado]

At first look, the 12z GFS has dialed it back a bit with the QPF. No real changes thermal-wise though from the overnight model runs.

Actually, it does delay the eventual transition to snow for areas south of the Red River.

It's not warmer necessarily, but the southward push of cold air isn't as aggressive due to the buckle in the pressure fields & the somewhat higher heights.

[Brent]

The GFS is still snowing on MONDAY now

At first the precip was over Saturday... Then Sunday... What is happening

This about to be one long duration thing

[Ntxw]

Here is the 12z GFS run. In general I would say due to the separation, it's definitely a more suppressed run compared to the past 2.