Texas Winter 2025-2026

[cstrunk]

Loving the trends overnight but we're still 3+ days out from the onset so it's too early to lock specifics in. Locally for Longview, it looks like freezing rain may be minimized with more sleet and eventually snow. Hoping trends continue to maximize snow here! High impact storm potential. 2-3" of QPF over 3-4 days is crazy.

[MississippiWx]

Anyone have the GFS ensemble freezing rain/ice total for the South region?

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV already has my low Monday down to 9. They shows drop to freezing Friday night and staying below freezing through end of forecast on Monday. That's with them holding everything to sleet and freezing rain. If we get snow then temps should be even colder early next week.

[TomballEd]

Although there is a sharp cut off line just N of I-10 in what should be sleet amounts, there are periods of light but continuing sleet through Sundar Monday morning, which may achieve the ultimate goal of getting school cancelled. Would allow me to drink beer and watch AFC and NFC championship games, usually better than the Super Bowl. School starts at 7 and next week I have to be there at 6:15 to search bags at metal detectors. Someone tipped a student brought a gun to school last week but he did not get it past metal detectors. Cops don't need a warrant to search a car on school property, they found the gun. Not every school needs metal detectors. I'd guess DISD also does metal detectors. Coming down lightly but still coming down around Houston past midnight Sunday, into early morning.


GFS forecast sounding.


Edited

[Ntxw]

Loving the trends overnight but we're still 3+ days out from the onset so it's too early to lock specifics in. Locally for Longview, it looks like freezing rain may be minimized with more sleet and eventually snow. Hoping trends continue to maximize snow here! High impact storm potential. 2-3" of QPF over 3-4 days is crazy.

Crazy is the recurring word highlighted by STS earlier. Most of us are happy with ~0.25" but that's usually ceiling for most events, for snow or sleet. Hard pass on the frzing rain.

[bubba hotep]

Oh my

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026012012/144/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Well 1ft of snow for me that run, nice knowing you all.

I do plan on live streaming unless I lose power. I'll post the link once the show starts.

I'm starting to believe we could see all-time snowfall records broken across North & NE Texas.

[orangeblood]

CMC now approaching Feb 2021 territory over a 5 day stretch with some 30 F plus anomalies over that period from Saturday to Thursday. GFS and Euro not far behind

[rwfromkansas]

The NAM

https://i.ibb.co/ccWx826q/IMG-0577.jpg

I like that even pretty early Friday night here they have it already sleet in DFW, not ice.

[Stratton23]

And its amazing how just late last week, ( im guilty of this for sure) we were talking about how boring, awful and warm this winter is, and here we are a week later with a potentially historic state wide winter storm, gotta love texas winters!

[rwfromkansas]

Here's a good tool I like to use for these events...representation from the Euro temp cross section forecasts over time for DFW Austin Houston. DFW's look like it can overcome a fairly weak warm nose quickly but Austin and Houston will be difficult to shake unless the deeper cold can get much further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-AUdLgv0BRdY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KAUS/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-H4EQvtbovPE.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KHOU/cross_section_full/1768888800/1768888800-PEkFD3pX2h4.png

That definitely has the look of a sleet-to-snow for DFW IMO, regardless of what the algorithm says.

[Ntxw]

And its amazing how just late last week, ( im guilty of this for sure) we were talking about how boring, awful and warm this winter is, and here we are a week later with a potentially historic state wide winter storm, gotta love texas winters!

The flip really did switch around the 15th. Basically splitting the winter into two halves, two very different outcomes. Kudos for sticking with it!

[gpsnowman]

Oh my

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026012012/144/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Well 1ft of snow for me that run, nice knowing you all.

I do plan on live streaming unless I lose power. I'll post the link once the show starts.

I'm starting to believe we could see all-time snowfall records broken across North & NE Texas.

Yeah I am thinking this as well. With the slow ticks south with a massive moisture fetch this could be a record breaking storm. Incredible.

[Ntxw]

There is a lag in reading, but we did just flip very hard on the EPO from positive to negative. It's the most negative since Dec 22's -389. Might get there. It's one of the reasons why the very cold air up in Alaskan/NW Canada has been held up.

Code: Select all

2026 01 06  299.15
2026 01 07  273.75
2026 01 08  173.12
2026 01 09  113.94
2026 01 10  150.65
2026 01 11  143.78
2026 01 12  113.81
2026 01 13   56.29
2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34
2026 01 17 -335.22

[txtwister78]

And its amazing how just late last week, ( im guilty of this for sure) we were talking about how boring, awful and warm this winter is, and here we are a week later with a potentially historic state wide winter storm, gotta love texas winters!

Lol. Texas weather but seriously these La Nina winters can do that and while you may only get a few events out of what overall might have been a "boring" winter in the lead up, the one or two that you do get can be wild/impactful.

In that regard, we saw that with 2021. Overall a pretty mild winter and then boom. Thankfully not in that category with this event but nonetheless one that we will remember should trends continue .

[rwfromkansas]

Look at all the QPF on the ICON, massive precip shield. A couple of days ago this model was bone dry.

https://i.ibb.co/Dgz7Zbf4/IMG-0580.png

Not liking the ICON's "two QPF maxima" idea as the area in between usually gets screwed. No dry slots.

Luckily it's an outlier there.

[Iceresistance]

ICON flipped so hard

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bksAF.gif

[Nederlander]

Look at all the QPF on the ICON, massive precip shield. A couple of days ago this model was bone dry.

https://i.ibb.co/Dgz7Zbf4/IMG-0580.png

Not liking the ICON's "two QPF maxima" idea as the area in between usually gets screwed. No dry slots.

Luckily it's an outlier there.

Yeah I am discounting it.. I see no warm nose there, just straight rain to snow transition (not sure if this just insufficient resolution or what, but the whole column will not be sub freezing).

[hurricane2025]

And its amazing how just late last week, ( im guilty of this for sure) we were talking about how boring, awful and warm this winter is, and here we are a week later with a potentially historic state wide winter storm, gotta love texas winters!

Lol. Texas weather but seriously these La Nina winters can do that and while you may only get a few events out of what overall might have been a "boring" winter in the lead up, the one or two that you do get can be wild/impactful.

In that regard, we saw that with 2021. Overall a pretty mild winter and then boom. Thankfully not in that category with this event but nonetheless one that we will remember should trends continue .

This event could be worse if people are getting 1 inch of freezing rain

[iorange55]

We've been burned a lot, and we know the models can change dramatically for us, specifically when it comes to winter weather. Obviously there will be a winter storm, but when it comes to QPF totals... I don't know. Won't feel confident in that until a day or two before.

[rwfromkansas]

What a weird run (12z GFS).

DFW doesn't finally change over to snow until early Sunday morning, but eventually still ends up grinding out 6"+ of steady light/moderate snow over a 24-36 hour period.

That would be a storm for the ages in terms of length. Usually we have a 6-hour window around here. Even the more conservative models still show this being a 24 hour thing. That's a big event.