Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

I think at this juncture discussion is probably going to shift to talking about margins (1.5qpf vs 1.7qpf; 10F vs 8F etc) winter precip amounts is more tricky, some 500mb consolidation to do as well. Just wanted to note this as some exchanges and posts shifts moods one way or another. For casual viewers, I think most of us should take that a major winter storm is headed our way and not to make decisions on the emotional rollercoaster.

Watches will probably come tomorrow or Thursday for the highest chance regions is my initial guess.

[snownado]

I think at this juncture discussion is probably going to shift to talking about margins (1.5qpf vs 1.7qpf; 10F vs 8F etc) winter precip amounts is more tricky, some 500mb consolidation to do as well. Just wanted to note this as some exchanges and posts shifts moods one way or another. For casual viewers, I think most of us should take that a major winter storm is headed our way and not to make decisions on the emotional rollercoaster.

Watches will probably come tomorrow or Thursday for the highest chance regions is my initial guess.

I would actually expect watches by this evening. The standard is a 72 hour lead time (which would put us at Friday evening).

[rwfromkansas]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

[snownado]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

A grinder would be just as annoying as a crippling ice storm, IMO.

That said, impact-wise, a grinder would be easier to handle from an energency management / business planning / road treatment standpoint.

[Ntxw]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

We never have it easy! But that's our latitude of expectations. In my opinion this is actually one of the more confident events that we will probably get SOMETHING. There's been way tougher set ups.

[txtwister78]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

That's a pretty good trouble brewing run as it stands now but yeah I would like to see a few more runs before jumping on that scenario playing out but until these things get sampled still a question mark but at the same time wouldn't shock me if it verified either. Either way this is getting to a point where confidence in frozen precip is no longer an issue. Now it's about timing/duration.

[TheAustinMan]

Interesting stuff. Update us on the NW Canadian ridging tomorrow lol

Back on Sunday, one of the primary questions was whether or not we'd get an amplified trough at all over the southwestern US to act as a conveyor belt for moisture for this weekend's event. Based on that distinction, stronger midweek ridging over northwestern Canada and the Beaufort Sea midweek was correlated with getting that trough amplified. In the time since then, ensembles as a whole have trended upwards with the strength of the ridge over those areas (ex. GEFS, EPS), and we are on track to verify with higher heights / stronger ridging over the Beaufort Sea than the ensemble mean from two days ago. Consistent with those expectations, ensembles and determinstic guidance are now pretty much all on board with having a trough amplify off California, resulting in an anomalous plume of moisture streaming over Texas.

Because of that, we're no longer focusing on divisions between non-precipitating/precipitating outcomes, and instead the ensemble divisions have shifted towards the evolution of the event, from precipitation types and event duration. Much of this is driven by whether or not the amplifying trough joins the broader troughing over CONUS early (shorter-duration event, more intense precip) or whether it hangs back longer (longer-duration event, precip more spread out in time). The ensemble signal looks noisy for this distinction at the moment, but it looks like we can infer that if ridging trends upwards tomorrow along the Pac NW and Pacific Canadian coasts, then a slower trough could be favored for the weekend. Given how splotchy the signal is, it doesn't look to be as good of a tell as the Arctic ridging was earlier, but it'll be something worth monitoring.

[txtwister78]

Interesting stuff. Update us on the NW Canadian ridging tomorrow lol

Back on Sunday, one of the primary questions was whether or not we'd get an amplified trough at all over the southwestern US to act as a conveyor belt for moisture for this weekend's event. Based on that distinction, stronger midweek ridging over northwestern Canada and the Beaufort Sea midweek was correlated with getting that trough amplified. In the time since then, ensembles as a whole have trended upwards with the strength of the ridge over those areas (ex. GEFS, EPS), and we are on track to verify with higher heights / stronger ridging over the Beaufort Sea than the ensemble mean from two days ago. Consistent with those expectations, ensembles and determinstic guidance are now pretty much all on board with having a trough amplify off California, resulting in an anomalous plume of moisture streaming over Texas.

Because of that, we're no longer focusing on divisions between non-precipitating/precipitating outcomes, and instead the ensemble divisions have shifted towards the evolution of the event, from precipitation types and event duration. Much of this is driven by whether or not the amplifying trough joins the broader troughing over CONUS early (shorter-duration event, more intense precip) or whether it hangs back longer (longer-duration event, precip more spread out in time). The ensemble signal looks noisy for this distinction at the moment, but it looks like we can infer that if ridging trends upwards tomorrow along the Pac NW and Pacific Canadian coasts, then a slower trough could be favored for the weekend. Given how splotchy the signal is, it doesn't look to be as good of a tell as the Arctic ridging was earlier, but it'll be something worth monitoring.

https://i.imgur.com/n0FCpjW.png

Great synoptic breakdown.

[Sambucol2024]

I'm interested in how you all think ERCOT will do if there is widespread winter precip throughout the state. Thanks.

[JDawg512]

I'd like to point out the type of long term damage these sorts of storms can have during drought stricken winters. We had a lot of tree deaths in the wake of Feb 2021. I lost my Red Oak because it started budding when the storm hit. From an ecological climate standpoint, this could be quite devastating for the state's tree canopy which is already in severe suffering.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

We never have it easy! But that's our latitude of expectations. In my opinion this is actually one of the more confident events that we will probably get SOMETHING. There's been way tougher set ups.

Yeah, to my point, I was concerned it would hang back so much that it would only be a little event. I don't see that happening, even if it slows a bit more. I think we will also have plenty of cold with that good HP. We just had some potential events with these troughs that ended up not even coming out at all, which was my worry. I would think we would have evidence of that on the models by now considering we are just a few days away from the trough really being on the move.

[foulbeast]

From Steve McCauley on Facebook

For the past few months we have seen dire forecasts on social media calling for record cold with ice and snow for north Texas that never panned out. But let's be clear ... the storm system this weekend is different. There is strong evidence that this one will indeed happen, and it is the FIRST one this season that statistical methods say is likely to occur. So take this one seriously.
Of course we are still too far out to call for specific accumulation totals for the ice and snow, but it will be significant. And we will not get above freezing for the entire weekend into early next week. So, stay tuned for details as we get closer to the event.
It will start as a cold rain on Friday and gradually transition to freezing rain, then sleet, then snow and persist through the weekend. And depending on who gets the greatest snowfall will determine who may be setting record lows by early next week. Those who get the heaviest ice will have the highest potential for power outages.
Forecasting this kind of wintry mix is among the most challenging of forecasts since a small error in forecasting temperatures aloft can make a huge difference in the type of precipitation that makes it to the ground.
Now off to class ... I am sure they will be thrilled to know that the North Pole is coming to North Texas!

[DW5522]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I feel like I remember back in 2021 someone talking about weather extremes and it being like a rubber band effect. When you have one extreme it’s likely to have an equal reaction on the other end of the spectrum in the near future to offset. And we did just have one of the warmest starts to a winter I can remember so kinda falls right in line. But I could just be remembering that wrong or dreaming it up.

[txtwister78]

I'm interested in how you all think ERCOT will do if there is widespread winter precip throughout the state. Thanks.

They've made improvements thankfully since the 21 event/disaster and so while their may be localized power outages as a result of ice buildup unrelated to ERCOT, I would expect that they're making preparations now.

[Gotwood]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

That's a pretty good trouble brewing run as it stands now but yeah I would like to see a few more runs before jumping on that scenario playing out but until these things get sampled still a question mark but at the same time wouldn't shock me if it verified either. Either way this is getting to a point where confidence in frozen precip is no longer an issue. Now it's about timing/duration.

I will be following your input on the warm nose very closely. You nailed last years set up.

[txtwister78]

Early trends but looks like Euro is also hanging the ULL a little further back similar to the GFS.

[HockeyTx82]

Early trends but looks like Euro is also hanging the ULL a little further back similar to the GFS.

Please remind me what does hanging back mean? Are we starting to see little flies in the ointment that could be a major bust in terms of no snow and this thing is just a dry cold?

[Ntxw]

The models are trending slower, but further south with the Baja trough. Euro is doing this as well. It's still much more phase-y than the GFS, more likely to come out negative tilt.

[wxman22]

12Z Euro

[snownado]

Things never happen exactly as modeled this far out, so this makes me...nervous.

If it hangs back anymore, we could be in trouble.

We never have it easy! But that's our latitude of expectations. In my opinion this is actually one of the more confident events that we will probably get SOMETHING. There's been way tougher set ups.

Yeah, to my point, I was concerned it would hang back so much that it would only be a little event. I don't see that happening, even if it slows a bit more. I think we will also have plenty of cold with that good HP. We just had some potential events with these troughs that ended up not even coming out at all, which was my worry. I would think we would have evidence of that on the models by now considering we are just a few days away from the trough really being on the move.

6" of snow is still 6" of snow in the record books, regardless of whether it falls in 6 hours or 24 hours.

That said, the light snowfall rates in a long duration event is easier to travel in, clean up, and doesn't put as much strain on infrastrycture thanks in part to sublimation.

Besides that, there's also the psychological aspect. The general public who's seeing all sorts of hype about a major or historic storm over social media will end up disappointed and out for blood if/when it ends up being another manageable event.