Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

Isn't the AMS meeting in Houston this weekend? That could cause issues with TX mets getting there. I just joined recently as a teacher since it includes a free subscription to Weatherwise. Heck yeah.

[wxman57]

12Z EC still has the max snow axis in OK with only an inch or two into D-FW area. It also has about 0.7 to 0.9" of ice across D-FW. Have fun with that.

[wxman57]

Isn't the AMS meeting in Houston this weekend? That could cause issues with TX mets getting there.

Yes, and yes. We are scheduled to present and have a booth. Issue may be both traveling to GRB and also that we'll need our forecasters in the office to handle calls. May pull out of the meeting Sat-Mon.

[bubba hotep]

24-hour trend on the Euro. We all know model derived snow maps have their problems, but they are still a good proxy, and I find the Euro to be conservative with the placement of phase transition because it can underdo CAA.

12z 19th



00z 20th



12z 20th

[mmmmsnouts]

As far as cold weather and extra heating, I would hope ERCOT would dump AI centers and Crypto mines if the load is approaching limits.

This being well forecast days ahead of time and hitting on a weekend will help. Hopefully schools and businesses will turn heat down to maintenance levels since no one was going to be there anyway and save a lot of energy.

[SnowintheFalls]

12Z EC still has the max snow axis in OK with only an inch or two into D-FW area. It also has about 0.7 to 0.9" of ice across D-FW. Have fun with that.

At what point should the Wichita Falls area be concerned with crippling ice? The trends while intriguing, are getting a little scary.

[snownado]

12Z EC still has the max snow axis in OK with only an inch or two into D-FW area. It also has about 0.7 to 0.9" of ice across D-FW. Have fun with that.

Dom't threaten us with a good time...

[Lagreeneyes03]

Just a request … can we please clarify what we mean when we say “this is similar to Feb 2021?” I known for those of you who have posted those comments you mean the impact of precipitation in North Texas. But if you can, please clarify.

This event is not appearing like the overall impact on the state of what happened in February 2021 in terms of cold and precipitation. There are a lot of people who legitimately have PTSD after that horrible week. And I bet some are members here or at least readers lurking.

Thanks.

Great point Porta. I've cautioned using that incredibly high benchmark and I hope folks realize that 2021 was a once in a lifetime weather event across the state as a whole and so while yes we can from time to time and obviously will get cold by our standards here, it will not thankfully reach that ceiling. Yes considering the potential for high end impacts of winter precip across such a large portion of the state, this may create some hazards regionally for some pertaining to localized power outages but the 2021 event as a whole is still in a different category in my opinion as it should be.

Are we sure about that? A lot of us don't trust the system

[cycloneye]

As he says, is going to be a long weekend.

 https://x.com/pcavlin/status/2013680138026713579

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'm interested in how you all think ERCOT will do if there is widespread winter precip throughout the state. Thanks.

They've made improvements thankfully since the 21 event/disaster and so while their may be localized power outages as a result of ice buildup unrelated to ERCOT, I would expect that they're making preparations now.

I don't trust it, especially with all the power the AI centers use. Not at all.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12Z EC still has the max snow axis in OK with only an inch or two into D-FW area. It also has about 0.7 to 0.9" of ice across D-FW. Have fun with that.

Well that's a bummer if that verifies. talk about lucy and the football.

[HockeyTx82]

I noticed that the local weather office has now lowered the temperatures and we don't get above freezing in my area until Monday afternoon.

[Iceresistance]

Note the GFS being a crazy outlier (10:1 ratio, snowfall likely several inches higher in Oklahoma)


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bksPB.gif

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just got put in a Winter Storm Watch

[wxman22]

12Z EC still has the max snow axis in OK with only an inch or two into D-FW area. It also has about 0.7 to 0.9" of ice across D-FW. Have fun with that.

At what point should the Wichita Falls area be concerned with crippling ice? The trends while intriguing, are getting a little scary.

It looks like it may be more of a snow event for us with some ice starting off. Of course things could change, mesoscale models will help to decipher precip types.

[TomballEd]

12Z EC still has the max snow axis in OK with only an inch or two into D-FW area. It also has about 0.7 to 0.9" of ice across D-FW. Have fun with that.

The more important question is does precip continue past Sunday night into early Monday mornings with subfreezing temps? I have metal detector/bag search duty next week at 6:15 am, and touching students gym clothes is not the highlight of my week

[ElectricStorm]

Winter storm watch just went up here, crazy how this went from looking like nothing to a potential major event in just a few days

[Ralph's Weather]

Many areas are looking at 80 plus hours consecutively below freezing. Some spot may approach 120 hours. And most of those hours being in the 5 to 20F range.

[wxman22]

Just got put in a Winter Storm Watch

Here we go! I’m glad Norman pulled the trigger fast on this watch.

1259 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 or more inches are likely across parts of
Oklahoma and north Texas. A glaze of ice up to two tenths of an
inch is possible in parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas.
Winds could gust as high as 35 mph on Friday. Additionally,
dangerously cold wind chills are expected Friday night through
Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southeast, southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma and northern
Texas.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Friday evening commute.

[wxman22]

From the local Mets here in WF.