Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

From Norman Significant widespread snow is likely Friday in the weekend.
Ensemble probabilities are showing 60-80% chance of 6+ inch
snow over a broad swath of Oklahoma and 30-50% chance of 12+
inch bands somewhere in Oklahoma (highest along the I-40
corridor).

[wxman22]

Here we go.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

SE TX, i dont trust the dry slot on Sunday. If you look at the sounding, 90% of the column is still moist. One section in the column is dry. Something to note.

Friday to Monday for Northern Texas on the latest run. That would be absolutely historic. Also, from typical storms in Houston, there is usually more moisture in these storms than the models show.

[dhweather]

200 pages here we come!

[gpsnowman]

200 pages here we come!

400

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The latest GFS run has another sw which shoves the rest of the HP into C Tx on Monday night. HP at 1047 MB into Texas.... Whens the last time that happened? Thats very very strong. Were usually excited if one is that strong in KS. Those temps aren't low enough with one that strong. Im going to look back at last years HP for the big gulf coast snow event.

Edit: Looks like around 1045 MB high into W TX last year.

[Texas Snow]

NWS FWD still adamant precip gone sometime Saturday afternoon (with low chance Sat night) then Sunny on Sunday. Mostly sleet Saturday (heavy at times)

[snownado]

Early frames of the NAM (18z) are quite stout with the warm layer aloft.

[TomballEd]

Euro never quite gets the freezing line to Houston but its close enough 4 days out on a global that the line probably covers most of the Houston Metro except right along Galveston Bay. OTOH rain Euro ends precip much earlier, when the freezing line on the model does reach the coast late Sunday, there isn't precipitation. I don't know the predominant P-type in DFW but it looks like a significant to major winter weather disaster is likely. But depending on model, precip may end in SETX just as/just after the surface freezing line passes.

[wxman22]

18z NAM

[snownado]

Early frames of the NAM (18z) are quite stout with the warm layer aloft.

18z NAM is also a good several degrees warmer than the GFS at the same time at the surface.

As the NAM tends to do the better job of handling these shallow arctic airmasses, its current solution is not exactly the best sign.

But again, still very early frames.

[Iceresistance]

I don't remember the NBM forecasting this much snow for Oklahoma


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkxbI.png

[wxman57]

Here are all the model forecasts for Houston. Note the Canadian is the extreme outlier, as it always is here with such events. Discard it immediately. UKMET (gray line) is way too warm at the start, too cold in the middle, and too warm at the end of the graphic. National Blend of Models (NBM) has Houston below freezing from 3am Sunday to 12pm Monday. Note that these are 6hr data points, meaning no 21Z points, so it's possible the temperature could be a deg or two higher in mid afternoon. NBM has an inch or two of snow in D-FW area and about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain here in Houston. I suspect elevated roads will become icy in Houston Saturday evening. I'm not seeing enough freezing rain for power outages yet, but I wouldn't rule out 1/4" of freezing rain or more here. I'll be nice and warm with my generator running if there is a power outage. No need to fly to Australia this time.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

[HockeyTx82]

Here are all the model forecasts for Houston. Note the Canadian is the extreme outlier, as it always is here with such events. Discard it immediately. UKMET (gray line) is way too warm at the start, too cold in the middle, and too warm at the end of the graphic. National Blend of Models (NBM) has Houston below freezing from 3am Sunday to 12pm Monday. Note that these are 6hr data points, meaning no 21Z points, so it's possible the temperature could be a deg or two higher in mid afternoon. NBM has an inch or two of snow in D-FW area and about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain here in Houston. I suspect elevated roads will become icy in Houston Saturday evening. I'm not seeing enough freezing rain for power outages yet, but I wouldn't rule out 1/4" of freezing rain or more here. I'll be nice and warm with my generator running if there is a power outage. No need to fly to Australia this time.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

Wait so DFW has trended down in totals now?

[Ralph's Weather]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

[Tireman4]

Here are all the model forecasts for Houston. Note the Canadian is the extreme outlier, as it always is here with such events. Discard it immediately. UKMET (gray line) is way too warm at the start, too cold in the middle, and too warm at the end of the graphic. National Blend of Models (NBM) has Houston below freezing from 3am Sunday to 12pm Monday. Note that these are 6hr data points, meaning no 21Z points, so it's possible the temperature could be a deg or two higher in mid afternoon. NBM has an inch or two of snow in D-FW area and about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain here in Houston. I suspect elevated roads will become icy in Houston Saturday evening. I'm not seeing enough freezing rain for power outages yet, but I wouldn't rule out 1/4" of freezing rain or more here. I'll be nice and warm with my generator running if there is a power outage. No need to fly to Australia this time.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

As I will be toasty as well with my generator. LOL. This will be an interesting set of days for all of Texas. By the way, check your PM.

[rwfromkansas]

That warm nose on the NAM is concerning. But, we have a few days until it's closer, I am hoping it's wrong. I know we will get sleet, I just want a quick enough changeover to get 4 inches of snow. I think the best I have done is 2 due to sleet in the past scenarios. Come on, colder....

[rwfromkansas]

Here are all the model forecasts for Houston. Note the Canadian is the extreme outlier, as it always is here with such events. Discard it immediately. UKMET (gray line) is way too warm at the start, too cold in the middle, and too warm at the end of the graphic. National Blend of Models (NBM) has Houston below freezing from 3am Sunday to 12pm Monday. Note that these are 6hr data points, meaning no 21Z points, so it's possible the temperature could be a deg or two higher in mid afternoon. NBM has an inch or two of snow in D-FW area and about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain here in Houston. I suspect elevated roads will become icy in Houston Saturday evening. I'm not seeing enough freezing rain for power outages yet, but I wouldn't rule out 1/4" of freezing rain or more here. I'll be nice and warm with my generator running if there is a power outage. No need to fly to Australia this time.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

Wait so DFW has trended down in totals now?

That's just the NBM which is always very conservative.

[snownado]

Early frames of the NAM (18z) are quite stout with the warm layer aloft.

18z NAM is also a good several degrees warmer than the GFS at the same time at the surface.

As the NAM tends to do the better job of handling these shallow arctic airmasses, its current solution is not exactly the best sign.

But again, still very early frames.

[rwfromkansas]

Early frames of the NAM (18z) are quite stout with the warm layer aloft.

18z NAM is also a good several degrees warmer than the GFS at the same time at the surface.

As the NAM tends to do the better job of handling these shallow arctic airmasses, its current solution is not exactly the best sign.

But again, still very early frames.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Y7w5X2CN/Screenshot-2026-01-20-145534.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/jPsCjGH8/Screenshot-2026-01-20-145607.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Fvz2n59/Screenshot-2026-01-20-145756.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GQqXF8mt/Screenshot-2026-01-20-145701.png [/url]

Looks like we have our wrench being thrown. Will have to see the trends on this. 30 would be warm enough, basically for minimal impacts.