Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

[LearnedHat]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

I hope . . . but what latitude are you thinking of? I would love to avoid freezing rain in both my home in Keller and my property in Gillespie County. If that means no snow . . . I will happily make that trade.

[Quixotic]

Might be the earliest FWD has put up a watch

[iorange55]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

Too early to live and die by a single model run

[Quixotic]

Is this the point where we discuss the effects of evaporative cooling and dynamic heat transfer?

[snownado]

I'm pretty sure FWD issued watches a good 72 hours out in Feb 2021 too...

[Portastorm]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

I hope . . . but what latitude are you thinking of? I would love to avoid freezing rain in both my home in Keller and my property in Gillespie County. If that means no snow . . . I will happily make that trade.

It will be well below freezing in Gillespie County by lunchtime Saturday and possibly a little earlier. Expect icing impacts there most definitely.

[snownado]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

Too early to live and die by a single model run

True, but it is another data point, and certainly a plausible solution.

[Texas Snow]

Not to mention that is a snapshot for midnight Friday night, it’s should get colder and transition to “real” freezing rain then probably sleet sometime overnight.

[Quixotic]

I'm pretty sure FWD issued watches a good 72 hours out in Feb 2021 too...

I’m not a betting man but if I were, I’d say not. It was sooner than this when they sampled and found the warm nose before last years rug pull for DFW South.

[bevolon]

Might be the earliest FWD has put up a watch

I hope it's not a jinx!!!!!???

[Quixotic]

Speaking of sampling, I imagine that will happen Thursday?

[Quixotic]

Might be the earliest FWD has put up a watch

I hope it's not a jinx!!!!!???

Just remember not to get too giddy and not to get too low.

[Gotwood]

Speaking of sampling, I imagine that will happen Thursday?

Think a poster said tomorrow

[HockeyTx82]

Did we get NAM'ed?

[Iceresistance]

ICON Jumps south and more snow for Western Texas


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkxp3.gif

[Quixotic]

Speaking of sampling, I imagine that will happen Thursday?

Think a poster said tomorrow

Thanks. I imagine the nose will be there but not stout. I think it will erode quickly when precip starts. Time for me to pull the 100 pound telescope mount inside.

[wxman22]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

I’m not concerned about temps up here. But for DFW more than likely with the cold air advection the temps would not hover around freezing the whole time. That frame is just a snapshot of the beginning of the storm when temps are still falling.

[HockeyTx82]

That's like the long range for the NAM, right? The cold air is not even made it into the US yet, right?

Fantasy map that will adjust closer to time?

[rwfromkansas]

Might be the earliest FWD has put up a watch

I hope it's not a jinx!!!!!???

Just remember not to get too giddy and not to get too low.

Wise advice, which is why I am trying not to get one run get me too worried. Even the high-res models sometimes have goofy runs. Granted I don't want a massive ice storm here either.