Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?stor ... 4661654914

What gives with the "dry slot" look over DFW?

[Stratton23]

GFS has yet another system on the 30th bringing more snow/ sleet to central texas, good lord

[Iceresistance]

Well, I surely wasn't expecting this jump northward and more snow to nearly 2 feet


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkxKM.gif

[HockeyTx82]

I think we are in model watching mode now where we disect every run and frame, I might need to step away until Thursday.

[orangeblood]

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1336875795144463&id=100064661654914

What gives with the "dry slot" look over DFW?

It’s the sleet algorithm flaw in that model output. It’s mainly only inputting Frz rain and heavy snow amounts . Read about it earlier, strange but makes sense

[Ntxw]

I think we are in model watching mode now where we disect every run and frame, I might need to step away until Thursday.

This is what I was referring to this morning. Lots of imby tug of war. We'll have to see what hi res short range guidance shows noted by txtwister. I wouldn't get overly worked up.

Take your 1-3" and sleep good at night!

[txtwister78]

I have a hunch we're not done with the suppression as long as these models continue to trend colder with time. That would mean obviously more snow further south for areas from west Texas into DFW with your sleet and ice further south.

[orangeblood]

I have a hunch we're not done with the suppression as long as these models continue to trend colder with time. That would mean obviously more snow further south for areas from west Texas into DFW with your sleet and ice further south.

Agreed, the more suppressed solution makes more sense considering the amount of dry air coming down with this Strong HP in central plains. You rarely see snow total that far north where the Arctic Dome is setup. I’d be really surprised if that precip shield didn’t tighten up , looks abnormally expansive

[hurricane2025]

Well, I surely wasn't expecting this jump northward and more snow to nearly 2 feet

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkxKM.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkxKM.gif

Airmass is colder that’s why

[snownado]

[rwfromkansas]

I have a hunch we're not done with the suppression as long as these models continue to trend colder with time. That would mean obviously more snow further south for areas from west Texas into DFW with your sleet and ice further south.

Agreed, the more suppressed solution makes more sense considering the amount of dry air coming down with this Strong HP in central plains. You rarely see snow total that far north where the Arctic Dome is setup. I’d be really surprised if that precip shield didn’t tighten up , looks abnormally expansive

I knew for sure that the Kansas part would go away, that was silly.

I am hopeful here in DFW. Ultimately if we have a long duration event I think I will get 3 inches or more on top of the sleet, which is enough to make me happy. My threshold is basically does it cover the grass. If yes, that's enough for me. I saw multiple foot snows growing up in KS, and it' great, but I know how rare they are here.

[Ntxw]

I have a hunch we're not done with the suppression as long as these models continue to trend colder with time. That would mean obviously more snow further south for areas from west Texas into DFW with your sleet and ice further south.

Agreed, the more suppressed solution makes more sense considering the amount of dry air coming down with this Strong HP in central plains. You rarely see snow total that far north where the Arctic Dome is setup. I’d be really surprised if that precip shield didn’t tighten up , looks abnormally expansive

I knew for sure that the Kansas part would go away, that was silly.

I am hopeful here in DFW. Ultimately if we have a long duration event I think I will get 3 inches or more on top of the sleet, which is enough to make me happy. My threshold is basically does it cover the grass. If yes, that's enough for me. I saw multiple foot snows growing up in KS, and it' great, but I know how rare they are here.

Having the moisture in place was the first big step. It sets the tone because dry is the worst thing. Then air mass dependent, we have seen too many times arctic blasts shift our snow south of us. If there was no juiced stj we would be gapped, so I like the chances.

[Iceresistance]

Well, I'm in the bullseye


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkxNu.png

[txtwister78]

I have a hunch we're not done with the suppression as long as these models continue to trend colder with time. That would mean obviously more snow further south for areas from west Texas into DFW with your sleet and ice further south.

Agreed, the more suppressed solution makes more sense considering the amount of dry air coming down with this Strong HP in central plains. You rarely see snow total that far north where the Arctic Dome is setup. I’d be really surprised if that precip shield didn’t tighten up , looks abnormally expansive

Yup completely agree

[cheezyWXguy]

I have a hunch we're not done with the suppression as long as these models continue to trend colder with time. That would mean obviously more snow further south for areas from west Texas into DFW with your sleet and ice further south.

Agreed, the more suppressed solution makes more sense considering the amount of dry air coming down with this Strong HP in central plains. You rarely see snow total that far north where the Arctic Dome is setup. I’d be really surprised if that precip shield didn’t tighten up , looks abnormally expansive

Yup completely agree

I’m gonna join the agree-fest here and say that for dfw I’m actually glad some runs show the snow line north. I’ve seen too many times where we are in the bullseye at this range only to find the main axis shift south as the event approaches (eg 2021). Maybe this will be our chance to cash in

[orangeblood]

Safe to say there’s a Winter Storm on its way for the southern plains

[Ralph's Weather]

Safe to say there’s a Winter Storm on its way for the southern plains

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1768932000/1769277600-tCvTZcKAqXY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1768932000/1769277600-0TXEmB9Mxm4.png

That in incredible consistency out of the ensembles at this range. And what a sprawling precip shield.

[wxman22]

18z Euro, Yikes!

[snownado]

On a somewhat unrelated note, another frustrating thing is that DFW's being teased for a 2nd year in a row with insane snowfall amounts that will likely either not come to fruition or happen less than 50 miles away.

It qualifies as cruelty at this point.

[hurricane2025]

18z euro to warm