Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

Just FYI, there's reportedly a RECON mission happening right now for the Baja low...

https://x.com/i/status/2013785270504542546

[ravyrn]

The electric lines to my county road go through 3 miles of forest to reach here. I'm planning for the worst and will be turning off my water and draining the pipes Friday afternoon. It's exciting to get a winter storm, but I'm not all about this warm nose. I've got 5.6KWh of back up power which won't last long at all if I'm out of power for 48+ hours. Got a propane heater and plenty of propane and got some water and easy to prepare food to last 4-5 days. Not looking forward to this storm at all.

[TomballEd]

Sleet makes a decent substitute for snow if snow just isn't possible.

[snownado]

https://imgur.com/10f191e6-220f-4b2a-bd03-303c76f08b96

Que?

[snownado]

Sleet makes a decent substitute for snow if snow just isn't possible.

The only good thing about sleet is that it's not freezing rain.

But it's the next worst thing.

[TomballEd]

Just FYI, there's reportedly a RECON mission happening right now for the Baja low...

https://x.com/i/status/2013785270504542546

That should make the 6Z model runs. Anyone starting a recon thread?

[Gotwood]

Major concern increasing from several pro mets now of a 2021 style redux across North Texas (less duration but more high impact frz precip), this is the real deal and start prepping now

[xpost] https://x.com/ntexasweather/status/2013 ... 02852?s=46[/xpost]

It’s a shame people attack instead of listen. The comments I’ve seen today attacking people for letting people know this may be a major event is crazy.

[South Texas Storms]

Another high-resolution model to keep an eye on at this point (besides the NAM and RGEM) is the relatively new RRFS model. It goes out 84 hours as well.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012100&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sc&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a

[TheAustinMan]

Drew up something quick using the models available on Pivotal Weather valid around sunset Friday evening. For each model, I shaded in blue the areas with surface temperatures below freezing, and in pinkish those areas that are overlapped with 700mb temperatures above freezing (as a proxy for warm nose temperatures, though the warm nose is centered at an awkward spot around 750-800mb that websites don't tend to plot). This helps highlight areas in the murky zone Friday evening where the thermodynamics favor icky icy stuff (sleet or freezing rain). These shaded regions were overlaid like overhead projector transparencies, so darker shading means more models depicted those conditions (a la higher confidence).

Nothing too innovative or insightful here, but it provides a general benchmark for where things currently stand during the initial phases of the event, before most of the mesoscale models become available.

[bubba hotep]

Another high-resolution model to keep an eye on at this point (besides the NAM and RGEM) is the relatively new RRFS model. It goes out 84 hours as well.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012100&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sc&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a

How has it performed?

[rwfromkansas]

Major concern increasing from several pro mets now of a 2021 style redux across North Texas (less duration but more high impact frz precip), this is the real deal and start prepping now

[xpost] https://x.com/ntexasweather/status/2013 ... 02852?s=46[/xpost]

It’s a shame people attack instead of listen. The comments I’ve seen today attacking people for letting people know this may be a major event is crazy.

Shows how our society has utterly devolved since frankly social media became a thing. People just assume the worst about everything. I saw so many "nothing will happen" comments and others attacking people for even saying something is coming for "spreading fear." But, off topic there....

The fact they are doing a recon already is pretty telling. A two-day storm would have been insane by itself.

I think it's more likely that won't happen anyway, but as long as it's still a good long-duration, not the usual 6-hour affair, we will have a big event.

[opticsguy]

Model algos are going to have fits trying to decipher these precip types. Overall GFS is probably best at this range to handle surface depictions until we get into high res range later tomorrow. It currently has 0.10” frz rain, 5” sleet and almost 3 inches of snow at DFW…that would cause a major shutdown across the metroplex and seems like the most sensible solution with a 3:1 sleet ratio .

Austin to Houston is a really tough forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/winter_summary/1768932000/1768932000-68TRGzs6imo.png

5 inches of sleet? I’m not sure my mind can comprehend that lol.

That would take a few warm days to melt. Anything driven on would be solid ice that would freeze every night.

[Brent]

[gpsnowman]

:eek:

https://i.ibb.co/MxSf0mdY/FB-IMG-1768962474171.jpg

Wow!! The Weather Channel is insane. I guess it's possible if the transition to snow happens sooner.

[Gotwood]

:eek:

https://i.ibb.co/MxSf0mdY/FB-IMG-1768962474171.jpg

I’m assuming their graphic includes sleet totals.

[gpsnowman]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

[cycloneye]

We will have model feeding from recon, yes from recon as they fly in the Pacific.

WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2026
WSPOD NUMBER.....25-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSIONS ALONG TRACK 66
FOR 23/0000Z AND 23/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
A. 22/0000Z
B. AFXXX 11WSE IOP10
C. 21/1900Z
D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY: 25.0N 140.0W, 25.0N 120.0W, 40.0N 120.0W, AND 40.0N 140.0W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 21/2030Z TO 22/0230Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
23/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
24/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

[South Texas Storms]

Another high-resolution model to keep an eye on at this point (besides the NAM and RGEM) is the relatively new RRFS model. It goes out 84 hours as well.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012100&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sc&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a

How has it performed?

I've only really followed it for thunderstorm events, and it can be a little over aggressive depicting convection. I'm interested to see how it does for our upcoming winter storm.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

I remember laughing at that name when it came out

[snownado]

Major concern increasing from several pro mets now of a 2021 style redux across North Texas (less duration but more high impact frz precip), this is the real deal and start prepping now

[xpost] https://x.com/ntexasweather/status/2013 ... 02852?s=46[/xpost]

It’s a shame people attack instead of listen. The comments I’ve seen today attacking people for letting people know this may be a major event is crazy.

Shows how our society has utterly devolved since frankly social media became a thing. People just assume the worst about everything. I saw so many "nothing will happen" comments and others attacking people for even saying something is coming for "spreading fear." But, off topic there....

The fact they are doing a recon already is pretty telling. A two-day storm would have been insane by itself.

I think it's more likely that won't happen anyway, but as long as it's still a good long-duration, not the usual 6-hour affair, we will have a big event.

There was a certainly a way to get the message across with less alarmist language, to be fair.

One reason the Feb. 2021 comparisons have been hyeprbole is because Austin, San Antonio and Houston are all currently projected to miss out on the significant winter precipitation and won't be nearly as cold. That alone will take some of the load off the system.

The other thing too is wind turbines, substations and transfromers all over the state (even way down to the RGV) were freezing over in 2021. This event looks to be mostly concentrated across N. Texas and *MAYBE* rural Central/East Texas.

It's also jumping the gun to call a storm "historic" before it's actually underway or finished, especially when the projected storm is still several ways out. There are still ways in which it can trend less impactful between now and then, and it's already been acknowledged the data we're seeing in the current model runs isn't the cleanest given the RECON missioms.