Texas Winter 2025-2026

[BAY29]

So it looks like Tomball may see winter precip after all?

[Stratton23]

yes

[Steve]

Major concern increasing from several pro mets now of a 2021 style redux across North Texas (less duration but more high impact frz precip), this is the real deal and start prepping now

[xpost] https://x.com/ntexasweather/status/2013 ... 02852?s=46[/xpost]

It’s a shame people attack instead of listen. The comments I’ve seen today attacking people for letting people know this may be a major event is crazy.

100. Nobody wants to be a d***, but “Okay bot” is always an appropriate reply to angry hot takes. It gets that way on message boards sometimes but since they (and us) are moderated, it’s not as bad. I was laughing today as a bunch of fan takes popped up on YouTube today from us drafting Tyler Shough in the second round - how terrible it was and what do people paid to run NFL teams know when hot take guy knows everything and did his internet research. Haha. What you gonna do? Meanwhile lots of ice and frozen precip in north Texas and the southern plains per 12km Nam.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=84

[Stratton23]

00z NAM looks like a weaker warm nose, more sleet would greatly reduce the risk of any grid issues

[snownado]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

[wxman22]

[Steve]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

That’s right. But it’s also looking like the beginning of the action. That’s going to last a while and evolve as the low pulls up, cold moves in and precip continues to fall.

[snownado]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/67SFtM7p/cfffanvas.png

Not ideal.

NAM actually does a partial triple phase, like the 18z EURO. And if that proves to be legit, expect the warmer/NW trend to continue.

[Gotwood]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

I’m not buying the Nam on temps.

[snownado]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

That’s right. But it’s also looking like the beginning of the action. That’s going to last a while and evolve as the low pulls up, cold moves in and precip continues to fall.

Ideally, you don't want to full transition to be delayed for too long, as you'll end up wasting much of the best forcing/moisture before the cold air does move in.

[jasons2k]

Here’s what 1” of ice can do:

https://x.com/tkanost/status/2013682000121438226?s=46

[snownado]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

I’m not buying the Nam on temps.

See my other post above. With the upper levels looking like this, the warmer temps check out (could even be underdone)...

[Stratton23]

I believe some recon data has been fed into the upcoming 00z runs, lets see what changes occur

[Gotwood]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

I’m not buying the Nam on temps.

See my other post above. With the upper levels looking like this, the warmer temps check out (could even be underdone)...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/jPh2skYx/Screenshot-2026-01-20-205826.png [/url]

At the same time the conus NAM has OKC 4 degrees colder.

[jaguars_22]

Lucy is pulling the football away from my area light drizzle!

[rwfromkansas]

Don't like that SW flow there, hopefully it will reorient later.

[Ntxw]

Don't like that SW flow there, hopefully it will reorient later.

You gotta have it in some form for qpf. If you don't, qpf will likely decrease, it's a balance.

[snownado]

I’m not buying the Nam on temps.

See my other post above. With the upper levels looking like this, the warmer temps check out (could even be underdone)...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/jPh2skYx/Screenshot-2026-01-20-205826.png [/url]

At the same time the conus NAM has OKC 4 degrees colder.

For sure, there's going to be a tight temperature gradient somewhere on the NW side of this thing regardless of where the storm tracks and where much of frozen precip sets up.

It's just a question of:

1. Are we starting to see this evolve into more of a SW to NE-oriented event.

2. Is the baroclinic zone going to settle further NW than what's currently projected.

But hoepfully, the NAM and EURO are out of touch and not starting to sniff out a trend (on the other hand, if going that direction gets us out of a crippling ice storm, then it might as well go all the way)

[rwfromkansas]

Don't like that SW flow there, hopefully it will reorient later.

You gotta have it in some form for qpf. If you don't, qpf will likely decrease, it's a balance.

Makes sense, need something overriding the top!

[orangeblood]

Just FYI, The 00z NAM get the warm nose all the way up to southern OK and DFW is *ONLY* in the low 30s through
12z Saturday.

I’m not buying the Nam on temps.

See my other post above. With the upper levels looking like this, the warmer temps check out (could even be underdone)...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/jPh2skYx/Screenshot-2026-01-20-205826.png [/url]

NAM 3km is the one to follow from this point forward on surface temps IMO, it’s faster with the frz line and stronger with the Arctic HP currently. Precip can get wacky though but it’s good for temps at this range