Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

I’m not buying the Nam on temps.

See my other post above. With the upper levels looking like this, the warmer temps check out (could even be underdone)...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/jPh2skYx/Screenshot-2026-01-20-205826.png [/url]

NAM 3km is the one to follow from this point forward on surface temps IMO, it’s faster with the frz line and stronger with the Arctic HP currently. Precip can get wacky though but it’s good for temps at this range

Starting to get into view of FV3. I didn't mind this model during synoptic rain set ups during the past year.

[Gotwood]

See my other post above. With the upper levels looking like this, the warmer temps check out (could even be underdone)...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/jPh2skYx/Screenshot-2026-01-20-205826.png [/url]

At the same time the conus NAM has OKC 4 degrees colder.

For sure, there's going to be a tight temperature gradient somewhere on the NW side of this thing regardless of where the storm tracks and where much of frozen precip sets up.

It's just a question of:

1. Are we starting to see this evolve into more of a SW to NE-oriented event.

2. Is the baroclinic zone going to settle further NW than what's currently projected.

But hoepfully, the NAM and EURO are out of touch and not starting to sniff out a trend (on the other hand, if going that direction gets us out of a crippling ice storm, then it might as well go all the way)

Good news is we still have a couple of days for this to iron its self out.

[Quixotic]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

They tried “Begonia” but nobody could pronounce it.

[wxman22]

Last frame of the 0z RGEM

[Quixotic]

Model algos are going to have fits trying to decipher these precip types. Overall GFS is probably best at this range to handle surface depictions until we get into high res range later tomorrow. It currently has 0.10” frz rain, 5” sleet and almost 3 inches of snow at DFW…that would cause a major shutdown across the metroplex and seems like the most sensible solution with a 3:1 sleet ratio .

Austin to Houston is a really tough forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/winter_summary/1768932000/1768932000-68TRGzs6imo.png

5 inches of sleet? I’m not sure my mind can comprehend that lol.

Yeah. Had it in DFW 2003. It took a week to melt because fog would form and wouldn’t burn off until sunset. Rinse and repeat.

[gpsnowman]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

They tried “Begonia” but nobody could pronounce it.

That will be our next storm.

[DukeMu]

Here’s what 1” of ice can do:

https://x.com/tkanost/status/2013682000121438226?s=46

That looks familiar (back in the Carolinas - like every year). Some big live oaks are bough-ing (bowing) down. Pine trees also fair poorly.

[cycloneye]

Recon feeding the models with data.

[snownado]

At the same time the conus NAM has OKC 4 degrees colder.

For sure, there's going to be a tight temperature gradient somewhere on the NW side of this thing regardless of where the storm tracks and where much of frozen precip sets up.

It's just a question of:

1. Are we starting to see this evolve into more of a SW to NE-oriented event.

2. Is the baroclinic zone going to settle further NW than what's currently projected.

But hoepfully, the NAM and EURO are out of touch and not starting to sniff out a trend (on the other hand, if going that direction gets us out of a crippling ice storm, then it might as well go all the way)

Good news is we still have a couple of days for this to iron its self out.

True.

And hopefully, the EE rule (IYKYK) doesn't come back to haunt us here.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS looks more sleet/ snow, still some freezing rain, but trends are definitely better for sleet than ice

[funster]

If it intensifies then will it pull more moisture toward the center as well?

[wxman22]

[gpsnowman]

Is thundersleet or thundersnow possible with this system?

[wxman22]

Is thundersleet or thundersnow possible with this system?

Yes

[gpsnowman]

Is thundersleet or thundersnow possible with this system?

Yes

Thank you kind sir. Looking forward to it

[Ptarmigan]

Is thundersleet or thundersnow possible with this system?

Yes

Thundersnow or thundersleet is not a common thing.

[Quixotic]

Is thundersleet or thundersnow possible with this system?

I saw some run earlier on Sunday that showed convection. I haven’t seen it since but once the high resolution models get in range look for the circles.

[wxman22]

CMC

[Quixotic]

That cmc run crushes me with 6” of sleet and then 7” of snow. I hope it kills my trees.

[Ntxw]

GFS has the cmc beat with lows .