Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

iPhone weather says 15-18” of snow. Much doubt.

[cycloneye]

To clarify about recon, The first mission to sample the Eastern Pacific low will be on Wednesday late afternoon into the evening hours. That plane you saw was only repositioning to then begin the real deal.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
A. 22/0000Z
B. AFXXX 11WSE IOP10
C. 21/1900Z
D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY: 25.0N 140.0W, 25.0N 120.0W, 40.0N 120.0W, AND 40.0N 140.0W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 21/2030Z TO 22/0230Z

[Texas Snow]

I was confused by that as I read it was flying tomorrow so thanks. Was hoping to wake up to newly modeled data however. Oh well, another day of speculation is entertainment

[Quixotic]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

They tried “Begonia” but nobody could pronounce it.

That will be our next storm.

Winter Storm Game of Thrones should be in the mix. You could sell the rights to whomever. Of course if it kills 300 people like 2021 I don’t know if you want your product associated with that although I’m 99% certain more than 300 people died in GOT. I’m rambling because we are in no mans land model wise.

[Harp.1]

The temps next week on the GFS seem absolutely impossible. Single digits in south Louisiana and below zero in the central and north part of the state.

[txtwister78]

That's pretty darn cold for an ensemble. Trended colder and colder.

[Quixotic]

I was confused by that as I read it was flying tomorrow so thanks. Was hoping to wake up to newly modeled data however. Oh well, another day of speculation is entertainment

So, here’s my question: front comes in on Friday. Precip is supposed to start right after. Will FWD do a sounding like they did last year? Can they with precip falling, northerly low level flow and southwesterly/southern flow at the mid to upper levels? I mean it would definitely clear up the precip type.

[jaguars_22]

Are the ensembles getting colder earlier and the operational the opposite? What normally wins out?

[orangeblood]

The temps next week on the GFS seem absolutely impossible. Single digits in south Louisiana and below zero in the central and north part of the state.

Unbelievable 5 day anomalies. Hope ERCOT has their S together this time around

[Quixotic]

That's pretty darn cold for an ensemble. Trended colder and colder.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1768953600/1769288400-LkFFzpcYDVU.png

If that’s the mean, what was the coldest member? That would be approaching record anomaly. I think it’s like -47.8 in 1899.

[txtwister78]

I was confused by that as I read it was flying tomorrow so thanks. Was hoping to wake up to newly modeled data however. Oh well, another day of speculation is entertainment

So, here’s my question: front comes in on Friday. Precip is supposed to start right after. Will FWD do a sounding like they did last year? Can they with precip falling, northerly low level flow and southwesterly/southern flow at the mid to upper levels? I mean it would definitely clear up the precip type.

The short range high resolution models will be able to define that better as mentioned earlier. Right now CMC and GFS keep this sleet for DFW metro with a changeover depicted at the end on the GFS. CMC is basically one hell of a sleet storm. Euro obviously a bit more amped so you're looking at freezing rain/sleet mix. Still a day of globals but by Thursday everyone including that office will start turning their attention to the models that should have a better handle on precip types/amounts.

[rwfromkansas]

Insane QPF on GFS still. Just nuts.

[Gotwood]

The temps next week on the GFS seem absolutely impossible. Single digits in south Louisiana and below zero in the central and north part of the state.

Unbelievable 5 day anomalies. Hope ERCOT has their S together this time around
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1768953600/1769644800-Ub4srsHFNjM.png

Latest OP has 5 consecutive days below freezing and a couple of below zero readings. Interesting times ahead.

[Ntxw]

That's pretty darn cold for an ensemble. Trended colder and colder.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1768953600/1769288400-LkFFzpcYDVU.png

If that’s the mean, what was the coldest member? That would be approaching record anomaly. I think it’s like -47.8 in 1899.

-40s anomaly is rarified air. You're looking at falling into the mid teens for a lot of NTX during the day.

[Stratton23]

I know the focus is on this system, but the GFS/ CMC are already seeing yet another shortwave diving down around the 30th and producing more wintry precipitation with cold air still in place

[Ntxw]

I know the focus is on this system, but the GFS/ CMC are already seeing yet another shortwave diving down around the 30th and producing more wintry precipitation with cold air still in place

Much like now, the HP for that future time frame is increasing in magnitude. Noted earlier linkage to the Beaufort/Arctic mslp.

[orangeblood]

That's pretty darn cold for an ensemble. Trended colder and colder.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom/1768953600/1769288400-LkFFzpcYDVU.png

If that’s the mean, what was the coldest member? That would be approaching record anomaly. I think it’s like -47.8 in 1899.

-40s anomaly is rarified air. You're looking at falling into the mid teens for a lot of NTX during the day.

Mid teens with heavy sleet, just find that really hard to believe. North Texas is no doubt in the bullseye of QPF

[Gotwood]

I know the focus is on this system, but the GFS/ CMC are already seeing yet another shortwave diving down around the 30th and producing more wintry precipitation with cold air still in place

I was expecting something to start showing up. Our weather typically comes in waves.

[WaveBreaking]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

They tried “Begonia” but nobody could pronounce it.

This is exactly why I don’t like the Weather Channel naming winter storms (among other reasons). Instead of following the NHC’s philosophy of having simple and easy-to-pronounce names for their hurricanes, the Weather Channel decides to fill their annual lists with tacky/pretentious names that you know damn well the average layperson has never heard of and probably can’t pronounce. Like when’s the last time you’ve heard of someone named “Freyr” or “Gorgon”?

[Brent]

I have never seen so much hype up here

Especially considering we're probably all snow