Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Harp.1]

I know the focus is on this system, but the GFS/ CMC are already seeing yet another shortwave diving down around the 30th and producing more wintry precipitation with cold air still in place

The AI-GFS as well.

[snownado]

00z UKMET is...uh...interesting....

[Quixotic]

I was confused by that as I read it was flying tomorrow so thanks. Was hoping to wake up to newly modeled data however. Oh well, another day of speculation is entertainment

So, here’s my question: front comes in on Friday. Precip is supposed to start right after. Will FWD do a sounding like they did last year? Can they with precip falling, northerly low level flow and southwesterly/southern flow at the mid to upper levels? I mean it would definitely clear up the precip type.

The short range high resolution models will be able to define that better as mentioned earlier. Right now CMC and GFS keep this sleet for DFW metro with a changeover depicted at the end on the GFS. CMC is basically one hell of a sleet storm. Euro obviously a bit more amped so you're looking at freezing rain/sleet mix. Still a day of globals but by Thursday everyone including that office will start turning their attention to the models that should have a better handle on precip types/amounts.

I understand. So, last year when we watched something similar all week, the day before they did a sounding. It was in range of the HR models. After that my point forecast turned into a rain/snow mix. Granted the cold air had been in place under sunny skies for a couple of days. They got it right for most of the area but from MBY on north and northeast the storm did pretty well. Just curious if they’d bother with the conditions changing so quickly.

[Quixotic]

00z UKMET is...uh...interesting....

Do tell.

[Harp.1]

Well???

[Quixotic]

Winter Storm Fern. Ha!

They tried “Begonia” but nobody could pronounce it.

This is exactly why I don’t like the Weather Channel naming winter storms (among other reasons). Instead of following the NHC’s philosophy of having simple and easy-to-pronounce names for their hurricanes, the Weather Channel decides to fill their annual lists with tacky/pretentious names that you know damn well the average layperson has never heard of and probably can’t pronounce. Like when’s the last time you’ve heard of someone named “Freyr” or “Gorgon”?

Marketing for non-weather geeks? I hated when they announced it originally and I’m laughing we have a major winter storm that is named after a primitive plant.

[Gotwood]

00z UKMET is...uh...interesting....

Do tell.

Almost a full day behind on the cold.

[Ralph's Weather]

0z GFS shows lows Tue well below 0 for all of N and NE TX.

[Quixotic]

Ukie is dryer and mostly rain in Texas.

[snownado]

00z UKMET is...uh...interesting....

It's instead an Apps Runner and a big snowstorm for the lower GL and Ohio Valley. Just about everyone else in the South (including Brent in OK) gets the shaft with little/no frozen precip, although on the plus side it would be mostly plain rain for DFW.

[gpsnowman]

GFS is below zero. UKIE all rain. Double insanity. Schizophrenia in the weather world. Let's see if the Euro evens things out.

[Stratton23]

Yeah you can toss the UKMET in the trash, that aint happening chief, not a chance

[txtwister78]

So, here’s my question: front comes in on Friday. Precip is supposed to start right after. Will FWD do a sounding like they did last year? Can they with precip falling, northerly low level flow and southwesterly/southern flow at the mid to upper levels? I mean it would definitely clear up the precip type.

The short range high resolution models will be able to define that better as mentioned earlier. Right now CMC and GFS keep this sleet for DFW metro with a changeover depicted at the end on the GFS. CMC is basically one hell of a sleet storm. Euro obviously a bit more amped so you're looking at freezing rain/sleet mix. Still a day of globals but by Thursday everyone including that office will start turning their attention to the models that should have a better handle on precip types/amounts.

I understand. So, last year when we watched something similar all week, the day before they did a sounding. It was in range of the HR models. After that my point forecast turned into a rain/snow mix. Granted the cold air had been in place under sunny skies for a couple of days. They got it right for most of the area but from MBY on north and northeast the storm did pretty well. Just curious if they’d bother with the conditions changing so quickly.

Last year you didn't have the type of arctic airmass we're anticipating here so with a stronger arctic high that pushes further south that may be enough to put you guys into a changeover faster. I still think that's in the cards but I'm not saying they won't do a sounding. I think when you're dealing/relying more on an upper level feature alone to do the trick that's where things get more complicated and it's a much harder call when you have that sw flow to contend with and they knew that then which is probably why they did the sounding to verify.

[txtwister78]

Yeah you can toss the UKMET in the trash, that aint happening chief, not a chance

What's wrong with it? It's still playing catch up with the progression further south but its getting there.

[snownado]

To the UKMET's credit, the upper levels don't lie...

[Quixotic]

The short range high resolution models will be able to define that better as mentioned earlier. Right now CMC and GFS keep this sleet for DFW metro with a changeover depicted at the end on the GFS. CMC is basically one hell of a sleet storm. Euro obviously a bit more amped so you're looking at freezing rain/sleet mix. Still a day of globals but by Thursday everyone including that office will start turning their attention to the models that should have a better handle on precip types/amounts.

I understand. So, last year when we watched something similar all week, the day before they did a sounding. It was in range of the HR models. After that my point forecast turned into a rain/snow mix. Granted the cold air had been in place under sunny skies for a couple of days. They got it right for most of the area but from MBY on north and northeast the storm did pretty well. Just curious if they’d bother with the conditions changing so quickly.

Last year you didn't have the type of arctic airmass we're anticipating here so with a stronger arctic high that pushes further south that may be enough to put you guys into a changeover faster. I still think that's in the cards but I'm not saying they won't do a sounding. I think when you're dealing/relying more on an upper level feature alone to do the trick that's where things get more complicated and it's a much harder call when you have that sw flow to contend with and they knew that then which is probably why they did the sounding to verify.

Good reasoning. We shall see.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah you can toss the UKMET in the trash, that aint happening chief, not a chance

I can’t remember the last time the ukmet handled a Texas winter storm properly. It feels about as useful as looking at the nam for tropical systems. I’m happy to stick to the euro, gfs, and icon until hi res guidance comes into range

[txtwister78]

To the UKMET's credit, the upper levels don't lie...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Q2PK3fC/Screenshot-2026-01-20-231910.png [/url]

Definitely not what WB has. I think something happened on that pivotal site but definitely not seeing anything that resembles that via WB.

[snownado]

Yeah you can toss the UKMET in the trash, that aint happening chief, not a chance

The NAM and EURO aren't quite to the UKMET's extreme for now, but they're slowly headed in that direction. If the phasing trend continues (especially with more data from the RECON mission), it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

It would be one of the biggest busts of the century if it ended up right (or close to it) though. Can only imagine all the blood in the streets here and over at SouthernWX...

[txtwister78]

Disregard on UKMET. I was showing the 12z run. My bad. Now I see what yall are talking about. Wow. Talk about a flip.