Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

Disregard on UKMET. I was showing the 12z run. My bad. Now I see what yall are talking about. Wow. Talk about a flip.

The UK takes forever to bring the cold down almost a day later in freezing temps getting to NTX than what the GFS is showing.

[Steve]

Yeah you can toss the UKMET in the trash, that aint happening chief, not a chance

I can’t remember the last time the ukmet handled a Texas winter storm properly. It feels about as useful as looking at the nam for tropical systems. I’m happy to stick to the euro, gfs, and icon until hi res guidance comes into range

Except some of those Harvey deluges. Otherwise I agree. See you in the summer c.

[snownado]

FWIW, 00z EURO is also looking uglier...

[bevolon]

FWIW, 00z EURO is also looking uglier...

And right on que my hopes and dreams are dashed!

[snownado]

FWIW, 00z EURO is also looking uglier...

Still not as bad as the UKMET *yet* (Brent is now in the snowfall bullseye), but for North TX and Southern OK, yeah...

.

[Sambucol2024]

FWIW, 00z EURO is also looking uglier...

In what way?

[Kludge]

FWIW, 00z EURO is also looking uglier...

Yep. We're in "that period". Models giveth and taketh leading up to the event. If it looked too good to be true, it probably was. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to be quite Good.

[snownado]

FWIW, 00z EURO is also looking uglier...

In what way?

It's further NW and warmer as it continues the trend of better phasing.

[Stratton23]

Euro yikes… Man if this ends up busting, there is going to be a complete meltdown on this thread lol

[Ntxw]

Euro yikes… Man if this ends up busting, there is going to be a complete meltdown on this thread lol

Forget this thread, you got watches and emergency managements canceled!

(Joking)

[Gotwood]

Euro yikes… Man if this ends up busting, there is going to be a complete meltdown on this thread lol

Short range models coming into view we know how this story goes.

[txtwister78]

Folks keep in mind we are still two days away from this becoming more clear. There will be shifts with the models until this system can be sampled as recon was doing tonight but I'll remind everyone even with a flow out of the SW which you need for QPF these globals do not handle artic air well and that arctic air is coming straight south down the plains into Texas as all models have clearly shown and still show. Now if we lose the strength of that then you're talking something different but I've seen this time and time again in Texas as I'm sure others have as well.

Where this is a bigger "concern" if you want winter weather is in the SE because a system more amped here puts a SE ridge in play there and that can absolutely make a huge difference there. My advice let it play out and don't overreact to shifts. Very well may see them flip back the other way tomorrow.

[Gotwood]

Folks keep in mind we are still two days away from this becoming more clear. There will be shifts with the models until this system can be sampled as recon was doing tonight but I'll remind everyone even with a flow out of the SW which you need for QPF these globals do not handle artic air well and that arctic air is coming straight south down the plains into Texas as all models have clearly shown and still show. Now if we lose the strength of that then you're talking something different but I've seen this time and time again in Texas as I'm sure others have as well.

Where this is a bigger "concern" if you want winter weather is in the SE because a system more amped here puts a SE ridge in play there and that can absolutely make a huge difference there. My advice let it play out and don't overreact to shifts. Very well may see them flip back the other way tomorrow.

Exactly this. Euro is 9 hours behind the GFS on freezing temps for NTX.

[txtwister78]

Meanwhile the Euro AI and GFS AI continue to get colder and colder and further south with progression much faster as you would expect with the amount/strength of that arctic air coming south. See everyone back here tomorrow.

[snownado]

One other thing to keep in mind is that patterns such as wind, temp and pressure are driven by the evolution of the jet stream in the upper levels (not the other way around), and often times with model guidance, changes in those patterns can lag behind upper level changes with the jet stream.

That said, it will be intereating to see if the models continue the trend towards better phasing as we head into tomorrow. It's a lot of moving pieces at play, so more surprises wouldn't shock me.

[DukeMu]

GFS is below zero. UKIE all rain. Double insanity. Schizophrenia in the weather world. Let's see if the Euro evens things out.

5°F in College Station - just like 2021.

Need a cold column for this Euro QPF (0z)

[Brent]

Euro bordering on historic here... Almost a foot of snow

[snownado]

With the latest guidance, some similarities to the GHD Blizzard of 2011 are appearing, which started off with an extended period of cold rain before transitioning to a sleet fest for DFW. Most (if not all) of the actual snow in North Texas was out towarda Graham, Cisco and Bowie where roughly a half foot fell.

[Brent]

With the latest guidance, some similarities to the GHD Blizzard of 2011 are appearing, which started off with an extended period of cold rain before transitioning to a sleet fest for DFW. Most (if not all) of the actual snow in North Texas was out towarda Graham, Cisco and Bowie where roughly a half foot fell.

Tulsa had its worst snowstorm on record then at 14 inches

AccuWeather actually has a chance at 15 right now

[wxman57]

Just plotted 00Z models. EC and GFS have little, if any, snow in the D-FW area and up to 1/2" of freezing rain/sleet. NBM has 2-4 inches DFW area. all models trended slower with the front into Houston, with very little freezing rain here. Typically, the cold air arrives faster than models predict, so I expect a swing back to an earlier FROPA here in Houston, though 70s in Houston Saturday sounds better than 30s.