Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

Yep. The snow chances look to be pretty much out the window no matter how you slice it.

The question now is whether it will a sleet fest, crippling ice storm, or a cold rain.

I'm hoping for the cold rain at this point. The other crap would be disgusting.

Yeah might as well after last years warm nose issues I’m over it lol. I sat at 32.9 degrees and it rained about an inch. 15 miles north got like 3 inches of snow I got about 15 minutes of flakes lol.

FWIW, while the EURO looks bad at face value, it actually keeps temps in the 30-32*F range in DFW for the brunt of the event (doesn't fall before that until Saturday evening, when the precipitation is tapering off).

I’m a tad west of of Weatherford so it’s supposed to get colder out here but doesn’t look to overcome the warm nose.

[Gotwood]

Let me quote HGX's sage advice again as we go into this event...

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

Yeah I’m aware. But this isn’t just a single OP run or two. The HRRR will start to come into picture on the temps soon.

[snownado]

Warm nose issue big time was hoping the snow line would get pushed our way. Temps will start coming into view tonight but the primary precipitation for DFW looks to be sleet and more freezing rain could become a factor.

Yep. The snow chances look to be pretty much out the window no matter how you slice it.

The question now is whether it will a sleet fest, crippling ice storm, or a cold rain.

I'm hoping for the cold rain at this point. The other crap would be disgusting.

If you were hoping for cold rain, you wouldn’t be here.

I'm here for the severe t'storms, the 2" per year snow average and the average winter highs in the 50s.

It's just unfortunate that since arriving, I have yet to experience a snowless and/or iceless winter without a long duration polar air outbreak, despite those averages. But hopefully, that will balance itself out again soon...

[rwfromkansas]

The NWS did bump sleet and snow line south overnight so we will see if that changes.

[wxman22]

The 6z Euro keeps most of the winter precip along and north of I-20. With a changeover to frozen precip on the back end of the storm in central TX. Major storm still showing up for the northern 1/3rd of the state.

[bubba hotep]

Let me quote HGX's sage advice again as we go into this event...

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

I mentioned this yesterday that we were moving in that "whacky" model zone when the globals start to struggle with some things but the hi-rez aren't in their wheelhouses.

[bubba hotep]

The NWS did bump sleet and snow line south overnight so we will see if that changes.

They are forecasting and not picking the best or worst model run and hugging it.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm not to concerned with any of the models right now, we are in the flip-flop part of the coming wx event. The models you want to see are the ones that roll in Thursday evening. You also want to watch upstream as the temps drop, it's a good way to plot just where the shallow dense cold air is and how fast it's moving south.

We do this garbage every year in this thread when we see the pretty colors of fantasy winter weather models. We know routine, we read the books, we seen the videos, it's like no problem, piece of cake, piece of crumb cake.

[TomballEd]

If I'm reading it right, DFW will have picked up an inch of rain below freezing by Saturday evening. Another 2 or 3 tenths Saturday night into Sunday morning.

You'll better be hoping 6Z Euro's sub-freezing layer is thinner than what reality brings. As sleet that is just a driving hazard. If this is FZRA it be like a Cat 2 landfall except it isn't the wind taking down trees and powerlines. And it'll be alot colder. It wouldn't take that much deeper a surface layer to turn it into sleet.

[Ralph's Weather]

Let me quote HGX's sage advice again as we go into this event...

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

I mentioned this yesterday that we were moving in that "whacky" model zone when the globals start to struggle with some things but the hi-rez aren't in their wheelhouses.

It is definitely in the weird short/medium zone where no model is great. Globals are too coarse and hi res are not in range. RGEM and NAM should fill that gap but it's still in their long range and they don't have the global context to resolve systems that are still off shore. It's a weird spot but within 48h you have many tools that open up. Right now we have to watch trends and use what knowledge we have gained over many years of watching these systems.

[Tireman4]

I'm not to concerned with any of the models right now, we are in the flip-flop part of the coming wx event. The models you want to see are the ones that roll in Thursday evening. You also want to watch upstream as the temps drop, it's a good way to plot just where the shallow dense cold air is and how fast it's moving south.

We do this garbage every year in this thread when we see the pretty colors of fantasy winter weather models. We know routine, we read the books, we seen the videos, it's like no problem, piece of cake, piece of crumb cake.

Captin, why do you have to be right? You doggone grizzled veteran you. LOL. Yep, everything you stated was correct. Thursday is the day. Once we get the high res models in ( HRRR and RAP), we will definitely know more. I think the data from recon will help as well.

[Tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

1-21-26 720am
Significant winter storm to impact much of Texas this weekend…widespread travel impacts are likely.
Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills this weekend into early next week.
Increasing chances for freezing rain and ice accumulation for Houston metro Saturday and Sunday
Maximum winterization preparation will be needed for this event to help mitigate infrastructure damage…completed by Friday afternoon.
Unfortunately, the trend in the last 24 hours has been generally colder across the guidance spectrum yielding a continued decrease in the temperature forecast. Arctic front looks to arrive either late Friday afternoon or evening across the area (timing is still a bit uncertain) with falling temperatures and onset of gusty northerly winds. Freeze line likely to advance southward Friday night/Sat AM to a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Porter and then continue southward during the day reaching the I-10 corridor midday to mid afternoon and the coast by early to mid evening. How quickly the freezing line moves south will be very important on freezing rain probabilities and ice accumulations.
Hard freeze (24 or below) is likely for much of the area on Sun AM and even colder Mon AM with lows into the upper 10’s outside the Beltway and low to mid 20’s to the coast…and mid (possibly even low) 10’s across the Brazos valley….this will be a damaging freeze. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to reach freezing and this may result in duration of temperatures below freezing nearing 40 hours or longer for much of the metro Houston area and up to 72 hours for areas to the north and west. High temperatures on Monday may only reach the mid to upper 30’s for a few hours.
Wind chills will become dangerous with values falling into the 10’s late Saturday into much of Sun (low 20’s in the Houston metro) and then down to the low 10’s Sunday night into Monday AM (could even get 1’s in north and west areas).
Precipitation:
SE TX will be on the southern edge of a potentially catastrophic and crippling ice storm across interior TX
Chances for ice accumulation have increased across all of SE TX with potential for at least minor accumulation to the coast.
Travel impacts are increasingly likely across much of the region.
Once the arctic front is through Friday evening the freezing line will advance southward…GFS appears to be resolving the intensity of the cold air mass best and pushes the freezing line toward I-10 by midday Saturday with freezing rain developing southward during the day. There is still some uncertainty in how quickly this happens and the high resolution guidance tomorrow should help with timing onset of freezing precipitation. Given this faster onset the potential for higher ice accumulation of .05 to .20 of an inch is being brought toward the US 59 corridor with more significant accumulations of .25-.45 of an inch north of HWY 105. Ice accumulation of .20-.25 of an inch is where we begin to worry about power infrastructure damage along with vegetation impacts and areas north of HWY 105 look to reach this range. Freezing rain should gradually end around midday Sunday, but it is possible that freezing drizzle or mist lingers into Sunday afternoon given a saturated air column and very cold air which is effective a squeezing moisture out.
It should be noted that similar to rainfall events there will be pockets of higher ice accumulation and areas of lower accumulation and this is an early look at accumulations so changes up or down will be possible.
Additionally north winds of 15-20mph through the period will add additional stress to ice coated trees and power lines and isolated power outages will be possible even down to the coast.
Preparations:
Proper winterization of any exposed pipes/plumbing will be needed to prevent infrastructure damage. Sprinkler systems must be shut off and properly drained. Exterior facing wall pipes will be a risk of freezing at the forecasted temperatures.
Pets/livestock will require proper shelter to protect from the cold temperatures and wind chills.
Tropical plants/vegetation will require maximum freeze protection. Unprotected tropical vegetation will be killed and even protect vegetation will likely suffer heavy damage.
Persons should limit outdoor exposure during the cold. Utilize heating sources properly to reduce the risk of fire and carbon monoxide poisoning.
All cold weather preparations should be completed by Friday afternoon prior to the arrival of the cold front.

[bubba hotep]

For reference, the 12z 12k NAM is 3-5 degrees cooler across North Texas at hour 24 vs. 06z run (hour 30).

[TomballEd]

Let me quote HGX's sage advice again as we go into this event...

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

I mentioned this yesterday that we were moving in that "whacky" model zone when the globals start to struggle with some things but the hi-rez aren't in their wheelhouses.

It is definitely in the weird short/medium zone where no model is great. Globals are too coarse and hi res are not in range. RGEM and NAM should fill that gap but it's still in their long range and they don't have the global context to resolve systems that are still off shore. It's a weird spot but within 48h you have many tools that open up. Right now we have to watch trends and use what knowledge we have gained over many years of watching these systems.

IIRC, NAM at the boundaries is fed GFS model data which somehow is blended in to the NAM. If the GFS is feeding it good info, the NAM could produce a good forecast. 12Z NAM already running. Obviously it is better when the players are already on the field, not the sidelines. I suspect 6Z and 12Z guidance will benefit from the recon mission. If I'm reading the POD right, another mission leaves this afternoon to be gathering data for the 0Z runs later this evening.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Evan Andrews FB post this morning does give me concern, cold/freezing rains this for DFW for the most part. I think he's forecast hugging WAY too early. over 48 hours out from Friday evening and 72 from Saturday.

[jasons2k]

Jeff shared this image

[HockeyTx82]

STORM2K OFFICIAL BULLETIN

Meltdown Warning
Issued by: Storm2k Center for Emotional Stability and Model Behavior
Status: UPGRADED TO WARNING

The Storm2k Center has issued a Meltdown Warning, we skipped WATCH, for the Texas Winter forum effective immediately. This upgrade is due to rapidly deteriorating model composure and increasing signs of community instability.

SITUATION OVERVIEW
Recent observations indicate that the long‑range guidance suite has begun to wobble, stutter, and generally behave like it forgot what season it is. Forecast confidence has dropped faster than a 384‑hour snow map posted without context.

Meanwhile, the high‑resolution models, which could theoretically save us, remain outside their wheelhouse, staring blankly at the situation like they just woke up from a nap.

CONFIRMED INDICATORS OF MELTDOWN
- Long‑range guidance is now issuing forecasts with the accuracy of a Magic 8‑Ball.
- Short‑range models are still stretching, yawning, and insisting they’ll “be ready in a few runs.”
- Posters are beginning to refresh pages at unsafe speeds.
- Several users have already declared the storm “dead,” “back,” “dead again,” and “historic” within the same hour.
- The phrase “I’m not panicking, YOU’RE panicking” has been detected in multiple threads.

EXPECTED IMPACTS
- Elevated levels of doomposting and hopium may occur simultaneously.
- Thread temperatures may rise sharply despite the actual temperatures falling.
- Increased risk of users posting outdated model frames labeled “JUST LOOK AT THIS.”
- Wxman57 may be spotted shaking his head from a safe distance.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Secure all loose emotions and tie down any expectations.
- Avoid staring directly at long‑range snowfall maps.
- Keep hydration nearby for rapid‑fire F5 key usage.
- Prepare for sudden shifts in tone, ranging from “It’s over” to “We’re saved” within minutes.

This will be updated as model tendencies and swings warrant.

[Tireman4]

HGX

540
FXUS64 KHGX 211202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase overnight into Wednesday in association
with a weak surface trough and some upper level disturbances.

- Arctic Front pushes through Friday afternoon/night, bringing
various winter hazards over the weekend:
- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with
hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday
night, and Monday night.
- Low Wind Chill Values, potentially near 0 in northwestern
areas.
- Risk of Freezing Rain, Sleet/Ice Pellets
- Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

I already know what most of you are here to read about...given the
anticipated winter weather event coming up this weekend, I`ll split
this discussion up into a technical overview of the synoptic
environment followed by a rundown of what`s expected, what`s still
uncertain, and the anticipated impacts (impact-based). So, if you
want to skip all of the sciency jargon (please don`t!), then go
ahead and skip ahead to the impact-based discussion. Sound good?

Sciency Summary
---------------

It`s easy to gloss over that we have a 60-80% chance of rain on
Wednesday. A developing surface trough will continue moving eastward
through southern portions of Texas leading to PW values surging into
the 1.2-1.5" range (90th percentile: ~1.33") along and south of I-10
on Wednesday. Combine that with a frontal boundary approaching
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods Wednesday afternoon and
various embedded shortwaves AND speed divergence aloft AND a 30-35
kt LLJ...and we have widespread rain showers. There`s definitely no
shortage of lifting mechanisms Wednesday! There will be a shortage
of instability though for most of the day. On Wednesday afternoon,
there could be a few isolated thunderstorms along the coast, but
even that`s stretching it as most of the high-res guidance keeps
MUCAPE generally below 300 J/kg. Rain chances stick around into
Thursday along the now diffuse and stalled frontal boundary. Above
normal temperatures stick around into Thursday as well with high
temperatures on Wednesday in the upper 60s to low 70s and in the low
to upper 70s on Thursday. High temperatures on Friday will be
dependent on the progress of an Arctic front, but areas generally
along and south of I-10 can expect highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. Now...onto the Arctic cold front and winter weather.

An Arctic cold front pushes through Friday afternoon into Friday
night. One thing to note is that model guidance tends to underdo
these shallow Arctic airmasses, which is why we tend to trend
towards the colder side of guidance...this is important to note when
we talk about Sunday. At the middle and upper levels, a cutoff low
will approach from the southwestern CONUS leading to a surge of
moisture and precipitation that lasts into early Sunday. The
question becomes how quickly do we drop below freezing for a
changeover to freezing rain/sleet. With a warm nose likely exceeding
more than 2km aloft, chances of snow are slim to none for the
majority of the precipitation window...but we`ll get back to that
later. Freezing rain is expected to begin as early as very early
Saturday morning across portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
and gradually expand southward as temperatures drop below freezing.
Uncertainty remains in exactly how far south this goes though.
That being said, with this forecast package I brought freezing
rain all the way down to the coast given the colder model trends.

Some drier air may infiltrate around 700-850mb on Saturday
afternoon, which may lead to a brief dry period (this is also
uncertain). Either way, our precipitation chances extend into Sunday
morning/afternoon. As the surface cold layer continues to grow on
Saturday up north, a changeover to sleet is possible by Saturday
afternoon. Depending on exactly how long the moisture sticks around,
we could see the warm nose shrink enough to support a few flurries
reaching the surface up north at the very tail-end of the event on
Sunday morning, but those chances are fairly low at the moment. So,
the predominant wintry precipitation for this event will be freezing
rain and sleet. However, even if an area only sees liquid rainfall,
the freezing temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night could
lead to elevated roadways freezing leading to hazardous travel
conditions. This is a good segue into the discussion of
temperatures/wind chills, which I`ll lump into the impact-based
portion of the AFD.

Impact-Based
-------------

Sub-freezing temperatures are expected areawide Saturday night,
Sunday night, and Monday night...and a few more nights into next
week. Portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods will also
see sub-freezing temperatures on Friday night. We are also
anticipating a widespread hard freeze (temperatures below 24
degrees) on Saturday night and Sunday night with northern areas
dropping into the low to mid teens. We`re still talking air
temperature here...when we factor in the northerly winds, things
will feel A LOT colder. Wind chill values on Saturday night and
Sunday night will range from near 0 degrees in the Brazos Valley
to the low to mid teens around the Houston metro area. This would
likely necessitate an Extreme Cold Warning, so be sure that you
have ways to stay warm even in the event of power outages (mainly
a concern for northern areas).

Will we get above freezing in the daytime hours over the weekend? It
depends on where you`re located. Portions of the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods have the potential to see sub-freezing temperatures
from Saturday morning all the way into Tuesday...that`s 72+
consecutive hours of sub-freezing temperatures. Our latest
forecast is currently reflecting locations around the Houston
metro area seeing sub-freezing temperatures for around 40
consecutive hours, which means we are not expecting to get above
32 degrees on Sunday. This is due to the anticipated ice and
northerly winds advecting that colder air southward. That also
means that Monday`s daytime temperatures may continue to trend
downward as well if the ice remains in place. This means that
travel conditions across portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods will likely be hazardous Saturday into Tuesday.
Hazardous travel conditions extend southward mainly for elevated
roadways during the Saturday night to Monday morning period.
Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and
protected.

With freezing rain/sleet potential now extending down to the coast,
it`s important that we further discuss the anticipated hazardous
travel conditions. There is a high probability of freezing rain
and sleet across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, and with an
extended period of below freezing temperatures this means that
travel conditions are likely to be severely impacted. For areas
around the Houston metro area and southward, our main concern will
be for ice accumulations along overpasses and elevated roadways
especially Saturday night through Monday morning. Some locations
may briefly rise above freezing on Sunday afternoon, but any
lingering moisture will refreeze on Sunday night into Monday
morning. Ice accretion and wind could also lead to power outages,
so it`s important that you take the time now to prepare.

There is still have plenty of time to prepare for the upcoming
hazardous weather conditions. If you have a plan in place, you`re a
step ahead of the game! If you don`t, now is a good time to make
one. Be sure to know the hazards of heating your home especially in
the event of a power outage. Ensure that generators are only used
outdoors and away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon
monoxide detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas
stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything
other than directly into an outlet. Make sure your family and
friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay
warm as well. Road conditions (especially elevated roadways) will
likely be hazardous over the weekend, so please keep that in mind
before deciding to travel.

For additional winter safety information, visit `ready.gov` and
you`ll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the
page. You`ll be able to find all of the information above and
more. Taking a few steps now to prepare makes a big difference.
Be prepared and stay up to date on the latest forecast.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs moving in with the rain band that is currently
draped from SW to NE across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.
Expect this band to continue a SE progression through the day. At
the same time, have some showers moving north from South Texas
this morning, impacting areas along and south of I-10. These are
producing mostly drizzle compared to the showers north of the
metro. Timing of arrival of northern band of showers looks to be a
bit quicker than originally foreast. Currently looking at IAH
experiencing SHRA as early as 13Z. Expect SHRA to continue through
the duration of the day, and tapering off shortly after sunset.
CIGs and VSBYs anticipated to deteriorate overnight through
Thursday morning to MVFR/IFR levels. Fog may become dense at
time, and may reach LIFR levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Winds will remain elevated through early Wednesday morning in the
Gulf waters as a coastal trough continues to develop and move
eastward. As a result, caution flags remain in effect. This coastal
trough will also lead to widespread Wednesday morning into Thursday
afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially
during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Water temperatures in the
bays and along the immediate coast range from the upper 50s to low
60s. Southeasterly winds will gradually increase dew points into the
low to mid 60s by Wednesday afternoon. This leads to the potential
for sea fog Wednesday night and Thursday night. This fog may be
locally dense at times, especially Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore late Friday night with
strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this
period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and elevated seas
in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be ruled out.
Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into Sunday behind
the front. While the precipitation type along the immediate coast is
anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas along the northern
and central portions of the bays that have the potential for
freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Additionally,
we`ll monitor for the potential for another round of abnormally low
water levels in the bays during low tide cycles, so be sure to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 54 70 56 / 70 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 69 60 72 60 / 80 30 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 67 60 67 60 / 70 30 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste

[Tireman4]

STORM2K OFFICIAL BULLETIN

Meltdown Warning
Issued by: Storm2k Center for Emotional Stability and Model Behavior
Status: UPGRADED TO WARNING

The Storm2k Center has issued a Meltdown Warning, we skipped WATCH, for the Texas Winter forum effective immediately. This upgrade is due to rapidly deteriorating model composure and increasing signs of community instability.

SITUATION OVERVIEW
Recent observations indicate that the long‑range guidance suite has begun to wobble, stutter, and generally behave like it forgot what season it is. Forecast confidence has dropped faster than a 384‑hour snow map posted without context.

Meanwhile, the high‑resolution models, which could theoretically save us, remain outside their wheelhouse, staring blankly at the situation like they just woke up from a nap.

CONFIRMED INDICATORS OF MELTDOWN
- Long‑range guidance is now issuing forecasts with the accuracy of a Magic 8‑Ball.
- Short‑range models are still stretching, yawning, and insisting they’ll “be ready in a few runs.”
- Posters are beginning to refresh pages at unsafe speeds.
- Several users have already declared the storm “dead,” “back,” “dead again,” and “historic” within the same hour.
- The phrase “I’m not panicking, YOU’RE panicking” has been detected in multiple threads.

EXPECTED IMPACTS
- Elevated levels of doomposting and hopium may occur simultaneously.
- Thread temperatures may rise sharply despite the actual temperatures falling.
- Increased risk of users posting outdated model frames labeled “JUST LOOK AT THIS.”
- Wxman57 may be spotted shaking his head from a safe distance.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Secure all loose emotions and tie down any expectations.
- Avoid staring directly at long‑range snowfall maps.
- Keep hydration nearby for rapid‑fire F5 key usage.
- Prepare for sudden shifts in tone, ranging from “It’s over” to “We’re saved” within minutes.

This will be updated as model tendencies and swings warrant.

An addendum...please refrain from "We all gonna die. Run for your lives"..

[davidiowx]

STORM2K OFFICIAL BULLETIN

Meltdown Warning
Issued by: Storm2k Center for Emotional Stability and Model Behavior
Status: UPGRADED TO WARNING

The Storm2k Center has issued a Meltdown Warning, we skipped WATCH, for the Texas Winter forum effective immediately. This upgrade is due to rapidly deteriorating model composure and increasing signs of community instability.

SITUATION OVERVIEW
Recent observations indicate that the long‑range guidance suite has begun to wobble, stutter, and generally behave like it forgot what season it is. Forecast confidence has dropped faster than a 384‑hour snow map posted without context.

Meanwhile, the high‑resolution models, which could theoretically save us, remain outside their wheelhouse, staring blankly at the situation like they just woke up from a nap.

CONFIRMED INDICATORS OF MELTDOWN
- Long‑range guidance is now issuing forecasts with the accuracy of a Magic 8‑Ball.
- Short‑range models are still stretching, yawning, and insisting they’ll “be ready in a few runs.”
- Posters are beginning to refresh pages at unsafe speeds.
- Several users have already declared the storm “dead,” “back,” “dead again,” and “historic” within the same hour.
- The phrase “I’m not panicking, YOU’RE panicking” has been detected in multiple threads.

EXPECTED IMPACTS
- Elevated levels of doomposting and hopium may occur simultaneously.
- Thread temperatures may rise sharply despite the actual temperatures falling.
- Increased risk of users posting outdated model frames labeled “JUST LOOK AT THIS.”
- Wxman57 may be spotted shaking his head from a safe distance.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Secure all loose emotions and tie down any expectations.
- Avoid staring directly at long‑range snowfall maps.
- Keep hydration nearby for rapid‑fire F5 key usage.
- Prepare for sudden shifts in tone, ranging from “It’s over” to “We’re saved” within minutes.

This will be updated as model tendencies and swings warrant.

This is the funniest and truest thing I have read in quite a while. Bravo!