Texas Winter 2025-2026

[WacoWx]

I'm convinced the models just hit the mid-range shenanigans area, it has happened every time with all our storms, even February 2021 did that

This is what I keep telling myself. Trying to step away from the ledge is not as easy as it sounds, but I am trying to remain optimistic.

[Stratton23]

I really hope we can get the freezing rain totals to back off, because im becoming a bit more concerned with. the potential for a reinforcing shot of arctic air around the 30th as we get another big dump of the arctic, that would only prolong issues if we have still have ice/ sleet on the ground

[txtwister78]

Mentioned this last night but several more runs to go before this event becomes clearer in terms of timing and overall outcomes.

A couple of factors while others choose to post every model run with generalized commentary (I get it) please keep in mind a couple of things.

A more amped system tends to slow things down but with arctic air literally being funneled directly into Texas all we may be doing here is adjusting our timeframe/window in terms of duration and precip types across a good portion of the state where as we've seen and as mentioned by me and a few others this could end as snow across West Central Texas into the DFW metro with your sleet/Ice further south just a bit more delayed (Saturday night/noon Sunday timeframe)

Shallow arctic air usually wins out and so regarding surface temps and the "warmer" discussion that some globals are struggling with I wouldn't be surprised to see a gradual shift back to colder as we get closer to the event.

Just my .02

[wxman22]

The winter storm is locked in up here,it’s just a question of the ratio between sleet and snow.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/TxDOTDallas/status/2014011199780737420

[Brent]

I must know where Jim Cantore is going

[snownado]

Joined them in what?

Warmer and NW trend.

The only real difference is that it doesn't bring out all the energy/moisture in a single compact piece, but the eventual outcome is similar.

I'm convinced the models just hit the mid-range shenanigans area, it has happened every time with all our storms, even February 2021 did that

A long duration polar air outbreak still seems all but destined behind the storm.

It's just looking unlikely for DFW that it will accompany significant snowfall (yet again). Jury is still out on the severity of icing, but that seems to be fleeting right now too (which I'm good with).

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET shifted back south with the snow compared to the 00z.

[orangeblood]

Just a reminder, stay calm !!!...the Euro Op and NAM Low Res temps will drive you nuts if you overanalyze at this range. We see it in every big event.

The big busts typically happen if you have the extreme warm nose (5 plus Deg C) at the 700-850mb that is brought down to the surface during high qpf convection only events (this event only has that dynamic around on Friday it appears). The warm nose will be around for awhile but will get wiped out as ULL approaches during the day Saturday. Majority of the QPF (>50%) looks like it will fall after this warm nose is gone at the upper levels. It'll be eroded west to east and the areas with current Winter Storm Watches look like the best bet for where this will occur.

Looks like 3 parts to this system for North Texas 1) Heavy rain Friday afternoon/evening transitioning to 2) Frz Rain/Sleet early Saturday and throughout the day then 3) Sleet/Snow on Saturday night as the ULL ejects out that could drop several inches of snow

Really fun system to track, enjoy it!!

[Gotwood]

Mentioned this last night but several more runs to go before this event becomes clearer in terms of timing and overall outcomes.

A couple of factors while others choose to post every model run with generalized commentary (I get it) please keep in mind a couple of things.

A more amped system tends to slow things down but with arctic air literally being funneled directly into Texas all we may be doing here is adjusting our timeframe/window in terms of duration and precip types across a good portion of the state where as we've seen and as mentioned by me and a few others this could end as snow across West Central Texas into the DFW metro with your sleet/Ice further south just a bit more delayed (Saturday night/noon Sunday timeframe)

Shallow arctic air usually wins out and so regarding surface temps and the "warmer" discussion that some globals are struggling with I wouldn't be surprised to see a gradual shift back to colder as we get closer to the event.

Just my .02

Yeah this is my line of thought. Just saw the NWS graphic and they have start times for the event before really any model is showing right now. And I would assume that’s why the WSW starts at noon.

[Tireman4]

This is what we know:

1. It will get cold. This is a serious cold front with a high-pressure system that means business
2. There will be precipitation.

This is what we do not know:
1. What form it will take in different parts of Texas and Oklahoma
2. How long it will last?
3. What accumulation amounts, if any, will occur


I think I have it right. LOL

[cheezyWXguy]

12z UKMET shifted back south with the snow compared to the 00z.

Then forget what I said yesterday about it not being good, ukmet is my new best friend and the best model out there! Just kidding, still not giving it much weight but glad to see it trended in a better direction.

[rwfromkansas]

My UIL academics practice meet is canceled on Saturday. So, at least there's that....didn't have much time to get my team together, so fine with me. Did not want to get stuck there with ice or something later in the day if the temps held off.

[snownado]

12z UKMET shifted back south with the snow compared to the 00z.

It pretty much resembles the GGEM...

[LearnedHat]

I really hope we can get the freezing rain totals to back off, because im becoming a bit more concerned with. the potential for a reinforcing shot of arctic air around the 30th as we get another big dump of the arctic, that would only prolong issues if we have still have ice/ sleet on the ground

for me, the chance of a winter wonderland snow event is not worth even flirting with a >0.25" freezing rain event.

[wxman22]

Pretty good agreement now on the models that there will be a 2nd wave when the trough passes.

[Iceresistance]

Just saw a post from Mike Morgan calling for 11-16 inches of snow for OKC

[orangeblood]

Pretty good agreement now on the models that there will be a 2nd wave when the trough passes.

Yep, that wave is the one that will likely blanket a wide area of the southern plains in white and will tank temps into single digits to below 0F Monday Morning

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just caught up on everything. It appears the models are up to their usual tricks when 48 hours out. Does this basically every single time. Keep focussing on the upper levels. The energy as it's entering into Canada has had a large shift westward. Now I'm getting solid snow from this after not being forecast at all. This still bodes well for Texas. This means more cold air coming down the spine of the rockies, colder air in the column above and some energy may slow and be held back, etc etc.

I noticed the biggest thing was the jet coming across Texas wasnt as strong, perhaps thats why temps warmed up.

[Stratton23]

And the Euro/ Euro AIFS runs are delayed, shocker lol