#3466 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 3:38 pm
770
FXUS64 KHGX 212024
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog may develop tonight into tomorrow morning.
- An Arctic front pushes through Friday night/Saturday, bringing
various winter hazards over the weekend:
- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with
hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday
night, and Monday night.
- Low wind chill values, potentially near 0 in northwestern
areas.
- Freezing Rain with hazardous to significant ice accumulations.
- Hazardous marine conditions.
- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Today through Thursday:
Light to moderate rain continues to move eastward across the area,
with a low chance of a thunderstorm if anything can get going behind
the main area of rain. With a front stalled across the area, a more
humid air mass than we have had recently, and weak onshore flow
southeast of the front, guidance is trending more aggressive with
dense fog development tonight. A dense fog advisory may need to be
issued tonight if trends continue. A warm day is expected on
Thursday with very low rain chances, which will be good conditions
to prepare for the incoming Arctic cold outbreak and winter
storm.
Friday through Monday:
Confidence continues to increase in dangerously cold temperatures
and wind chills coming into the area this weekend and into early
next week. Confidence also continues to increase in a significant
icing event for the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. The southern
extent of the freezing rain along and south of the I-10 corridor
remains more uncertain, but potentially highly impactful. This is
due to the very cold temperatures moving in and the potential for
significant travel impacts with even small amounts of freezing
rain especially on elevated surface/highway overpasses. Areas that
do not drop below freezing until precipitation ends can still see
impacts as any moisture remaining moisture on roadways/bridges
may re-freeze. Winds will also increase the impacts of freezing
precipitation.
While the wintry precipitation has certainly attracted a lot of
attention, we want to make sure that the dangerously cold weather
coming in does not get overshadowed. Hard freeze conditions will be
possible both Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the teens
and lower 20s, lowest on Sunday night into Monday morning.
Additionally, gusty northerly winds will be present, dropping wind
chills into the single digits and teens both nights, again lowest
Sunday night into Monday morning. We have issued an areawide Extreme
Cold Watch to account for both the wind chill and hard freeze
threats, rather than issuing a separate Freeze Watch/Warning for
a hard freeze. Similarly cold temperatures will continue Monday
night into Tuesday morning. However, with lower winds, apparent
temperatures may be more in the range of a Cold Weather Advisory
than an Extreme Cold Warning, so we will not continue the watch
that far out at this time. Also of note, many areas north of I-10
may not get above freezing all day on Sunday.
A notable change from earlier guidance regarding the synoptic
pattern is that guidance has trended more progressive with the
cutoff low off the coast of the Baja, now showing it phasing more
with the northern stream trough and becoming a more progressive
shortwave. It appears this may be one of the reasons for the large
model spread in temperatures for the area Saturday into early
Sunday, as the increased forcing may allow a bit more of a surface
trough or wave of low pressure to develop along the Gulf Coast.
This increased onshore flow and coastal front would offer a bit
more resistance to the strong shallow Arctic air mass moving in,
though it will eventually give in. Until we get closer in time to
see which will win out for areas along and south of I-10, we will
continue to lean heavily into probabilistic messaging and urge
everyone to continue to check the latest forecasts. Will note that
there is even a lower probability alternative scenario where a
small warm sector develops right along the coast with a potential
for severe storms Saturday, but this probability is too low for
any official messaging at this time.
The latest probabilistic WSSI from WPC continues to hit hard on the
freezing rain impacts for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. NBM
continues to show medium chances of significant ice accumulations
exceeding 0.25" in northern portions of the areas, indicating an
increasing concern for power outages, with impacts compounded by the
very cold air moving in behind this system and gusty northerly
winds. Rain may change over to freezing rain as early as early
Saturday morning in areas such as Houston County, with the surface
freezing line beginning to progress southward through the day.
Some minor sleet accumulations may also occur in our far northern
counties. For areas along and south of I- 10, we will have to
watch the surface freezing line closely Saturday night to Sunday
morning, relative to when waves of precipitation move through.
20-30% NBM probabilities of 1/8" of ice (winter storm warning
criteria) extend down into the I-10 corridor, along with 30- 60%
probabilities of 0.01". 20% probabilities of 0.01" of ice extend
down to the coast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas
generally along and north of I-10, and will monitor for any need
to expand it southward. As we get closer, upgrades to a Winter
Storm Warning (or an Ice Storm Warning further north) are possible
as well as Winter Weather Advisories, which may extend further
south of the current watch area. Remember that even going from a
Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade, not
a downgrade, as it indicates increasing confidence in impacts.
This is especially the case when it comes to freezing rain, since
even small amounts can have a big impact.
JDavis
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGs moving in with the rain band that is currently
draped from SW to NE across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.
Expect this band to continue a SE progression through the day. At
the same time, have some showers moving north from South Texas
this morning, impacting areas along and south of I-10. These are
producing mostly drizzle compared to the showers north of the
metro. Timing of arrival of northern band of showers looks to be a
bit quicker than originally forecast. Currently looking at IAH
experiencing SHRA as early as 13Z. Expect SHRA to continue through
the duration of the day, and tapering off shortly after sunset.
CIGs and VSBYs anticipated to deteriorate overnight through
Thursday morning to MVFR/IFR levels. Fog may become dense at
time, and may reach LIFR levels.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
A coastal trough will lead to rain continuing through tonight,
with low chances continuing into Thursday afternoon. An isolated
storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially this afternoon.
Water temperatures in the bays and along the immediate coast range
from the upper 50s to low 60s. Southeasterly winds will gradually
increase dew points into the low to mid 60s by this afternoon.
This leads to the potential for sea fog tonight and Thursday
night. This fog may be locally dense at times, especially
tonight into Thursday morning.
A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore by Saturday with
strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for
this period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and
elevated seas in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be
ruled out. Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into
Sunday behind the front. While the precipitation type along the
immediate coast is anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas
along the northern and central portions of the bays that have the
potential for freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Additionally, we`ll monitor for the potential for another round of
abnormally low water levels in the bays during low tide cycles,
so be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 71 59 70 / 20 0 10 60
Houston (IAH) 60 74 61 73 / 30 10 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 60 67 60 67 / 30 10 10 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
300-313.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JDavis
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