Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Yall have to root for the slow deep 18z gfs

It's also very far south almost to Cabo with the base of the ULL. This is what I was hoping the trend would be eventually.

[Iceresistance]

I forgot to ask/mention this, but don't the models tend to overestimate the warm nose in winter weather events?

You need a warm nose in some form of fashion for moisture transport. That's what overruning precipitation is, warm moist air going over cooler air below. Higher the QPF involved the warmer the moisture transport from a tropics and subtropics that's just physics. There's a Goldilocks zone somewhere around maybe a quarter inch to 3/4 in of QPF where it's just enough to not overwhelm but not too little where is dry. Just a basic layman's, there's a lot more nuances involved at the upper levels. Can they overestimate yes that means the model is too wet and the colder surface wins vice versa.

I was thinking like, overestimation of WAA at the worst part of warm nose should be at and underestimation of WAA at the colder areas, something like that.

[snownado]

Think we will like the 18z GFS a little more.

A late 3-6" snow rally for DFW (highest NW and lowest SE) on Sunday, verbatim...

[wxman22]

Yep the 18z GFS still shows that heavy snow band on the back end of the storm.

[HockeyTx82]

Yall have to root for the slow deep 18z gfs

It's also very far south almost to Cabo with the base of the ULL. This is what I was hoping the trend would be eventually.

So trends are looking like what for DFW?

[Quixotic]

Ridiculous to think this but what if we get a pounding with sleet and then top it off with WSW level snow? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

[Quixotic]

Yall have to root for the slow deep 18z gfs

It's also very far south almost to Cabo with the base of the ULL. This is what I was hoping the trend would be eventually.

So trends are looking like what for DFW?

Mostly sleet topped off with snow. You’re about 20 miles west of me so you might fare better.

[txtwister78]

Ridiculous to think this but what if we get a pounding with sleet and then top it off with WSW level snow? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

Actually that can help your transition occur a little quicker because the layers of the atmosphere above the surface cool faster when you're under those convective sleet bands. But despite that if you get that system to dig like what the GFS shows it can still deliver on the back end anyway with the help of colder air aloft pushing in just before precip shuts off.

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

Yall have to root for the slow deep 18z gfs

It's also very far south almost to Cabo with the base of the ULL. This is what I was hoping the trend would be eventually.

So trends are looking like what for DFW?

It's a run of the GFS. There seems to be a bit of beat pulse that colder trends is being hinted at. 0z will tell more. If you want snow in your backyard root for a southerly ejection topped with some colder air.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ridiculous to think this but what if we get a pounding with sleet and then top it off with WSW level snow? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

This seems to be plausible given the runs today. If the nam is right on the faster front, then we should see the bulk of the qpf falls as sleet, with a few inches of snow on top at the end. I wonder what ratios could be in play by Sunday given the temps, would be cool to see a 50/50 split between sleet and snow accumulations, but I’m getting ahead of myself here.

[Quixotic]

Ridiculous to think this but what if we get a pounding with sleet and then top it off with WSW level snow? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

This seems to be plausible given the runs today. If the nam is right on the faster front, then we should see the bulk of the qpf falls as sleet, with a few inches of snow on top at the end. I wonder what ratios could be in play by Sunday given the temps, would be cool to see a 50/50 split between sleet and snow accumulations, but I’m getting ahead of myself here.

I mean, taken verbatim the GFS is saying here’s 18 hours of convective sleet and just for chuckles here’s a heavy band of snow with high ratios. It’s not out of the question according to that run but FWD is also saying transition to snow on Saturday night into Sunday. Gotta wait on the sounding data and the HR models to chime in.

[Ntxw]

To stray a little bit from the storm, The 500 millibar pattern is looking even better and better on the weeklies for the middle of February. Very low heights across the eastern US starting out in the plains extending to the Atlantic Ocean. This 500 millibar configuration is snowy historically for the month of February possibly one of the most highest correlated of our analogs. You're talking stuff like February 2010 and 1978 in terms of storms and quality of cold air. Just something to keep in mind as this period continues to trend this way.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah february is looking potentially fun, this afternoons Euro run had one of the most insane PV Splits that ive ever seen

[Quixotic]

To stray a little bit from the storm, The 500 millibar pattern is looking even better and better on the weeklies for the middle of February. Very low heights across the eastern US starting out in the plains extending to the Atlantic Ocean. This 500 millibar configuration is snowy historically for the month of February possibly one of the most highest correlated of our analogs. You're talking stuff like February 2010 and 1978 in terms of storms and quality of cold air. Just something to keep in mind as this period continues to trend this way.

https://i.imgur.com/dTSJmSy.jpeg

When we talk about 77-78 what’s amazing to me was the consistency of the cold and the entire column was cold. No sleet. No freezing rain. Just straight to snow. I was a kid in the inner city of Dallas and it seemed like it snowed almost every day. My parents said it was like being back in Worcester.

[Quixotic]

https://m1l.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026012118/138/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Let’s hit pause and stick with it.

[Ntxw]

When we talk about 77-78 what’s amazing to me was the consistency of the cold and the entire column was cold. No sleet. No freezing rain. Just straight to snow. I was a kid in the inner city of Dallas and it seemed like it snowed almost every day. My parents said it was like being back in Worcester.

Lower average heights means the atmosphere is generally colder than normal. You start cold, it will likely be cold when systems cross, just a better playing field. Surface can go through ebb and flow but mid February likely has deeper cold to work with above.

[Quixotic]

BTW, FWD shifted that mostly snow line ever so slightly south as it bisects Denton and Collin.

[rylo7956]

BTW, FWD shifted that mostly snow line ever so slightly south as it bisects Denton and Collin.

Getting real close to me in Coppell.

[Quixotic]

When we talk about 77-78 what’s amazing to me was the consistency of the cold and the entire column was cold. No sleet. No freezing rain. Just straight to snow. I was a kid in the inner city of Dallas and it seemed like it snowed almost every day. My parents said it was like being back in Worcester.

Lower average heights means the atmosphere is generally colder than normal. You start cold, it will likely be cold when systems cross, just a better playing field. Surface can go through ebb and flow but mid February likely has deeper cold to work with above.

https://i.imgur.com/zlC8Fae.gif

Yeah. I asked that question about 15 years ago to a met on another board about how some winters it’s just like we can’t miss. Others it seems like we have to worry about the warm nose and his answer was four words: lower heights. Less thickness.