Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

Ridiculous to think this but what if we get a pounding with sleet and then top it off with WSW level snow? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

This seems to be plausible given the runs today. If the nam is right on the faster front, then we should see the bulk of the qpf falls as sleet, with a few inches of snow on top at the end. I wonder what ratios could be in play by Sunday given the temps, would be cool to see a 50/50 split between sleet and snow accumulations, but I’m getting ahead of myself here.

I mean, taken verbatim the GFS is saying here’s 18 hours of convective sleet and just for chuckles here’s a heavy band of snow with high ratios. It’s not out of the question according to that run but FWD is also saying transition to snow on Saturday night into Sunday. Gotta wait on the sounding data and the HR models to chime in.

I'm a page behind trying to catch up after taking down the last of the Christmas lights on the "warm" day today, but I remember some thundersnow events in Kansas growing up that just dumped big totals. If we can get a bit of instability here, that would help move the sleet into snow quicker. Fingers crossed. I like a good Trowal....

[Stratton23]

interesting that herzog mentioned snow down here, that seems unlikely, although there are always surprises with texas winter storms, i could see some tail end snow happening if the column cools enough before precipitation ends

[Stonewood Ranch]

HI guys! I just got back to DFW this afternoon and had to check Storm2K out immediately. I live south of I20 in the Ovilla area. I haven’t had a chance to read the last 50 or 60 pages! As it stands right now, what can I expect in the Ovilla area? Much freezing rain or sleet and snow only? I know things are changing by the hour. Thanks!

Looks likely the same as much of the metro, starting as rain changing to sleet, probably a lot of sleet, late Saturday to Sunday may be switching to snow. Subject to change of course if cold is a little faster.

Thanks Ntxw! I guess that’s the best we can hope for right now. We’d all just like snow, fingers crossed it changes over quickly.

[BAY29]

interesting that herzog mentioned snow down here, that seems unlikely, although there are always surprises with texas winter storms, i could see some tail end snow happening if the column cools enough before precipitation ends

I feel like we might get a surprise if the temps fall faster and id say that chance isn’t bad

[rwfromkansas]

BTW, FWD shifted that mostly snow line ever so slightly south as it bisects Denton and Collin.

Getting real close to me in Coppell.

I hope it drifts to I-20 and holds.

Please, I love that GFS run since I am at the 6-inch mark JUST BARELY. More than enough to be happy...

[rwfromkansas]

254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!

I saw 500 at one point today. Wowzer.

[TheAustinMan]

There's been some confusion as to if/when recon data is getting into the models. Hopefully, I can clear that up here.

• The recon flight investigating the upper-level disturbance off California took off from Sacramento around 1900Z (1:00 PM CST) this afternoon with the mission of parachuting 25 dropsondes near and around the disturbance to sample the atmosphere. It deployed its first dropsonde at around 2028Z (2:28 PM CST). The flight as of this posting is still in progress, and the flight continues to deploy dropsondes. Any model with a time of initialization before 21Z today will have no dropsonde information. (So... no recon data on the 18Z models!)
• The mission is scheduled to conclude by 0230Z (8:30 PM CST) tonight. If everything goes as planned it will have deployed 25 dropsondes.
• Recon data has begun to trickle into some of the more rapidly run models. For example, the RAP, which runs every hour, began ingesting an increasing number of dropsondes in its 21Z, 22Z, and 23Z runs as that data became available, and will continue to do so in subsequent runs (though the RAP and the related HRRR don't go out very far).
• The flight dropped 16 dropsondes before 00Z. In theory, the 00Z models should have these, along with flight-level data. I cannot guarantee that, but we will be able to tell via the model data monitors for the GFS and NAM whether that data made it in once those runs start spooling up. If not, then all the dropsondes from the entirety of the flight should make it in for the 06Z models.

[rwfromkansas]

If that much sleet falls over DFW… how do you deal with clearing all of that if you want to get out of your driveway before, like, Wednesday? You might need a sledgehammer to get through sleet like that once it solidifies.

I got icemelt a few years ago. I think I could only find it maybe at Walmart.

[Stratton23]

Reconnaissance flight data will be in the 00z GFS, Euro Runs, a member of the flight crew confirmed it on X

[cycloneye]

There's been some confusion as to if/when recon data is getting into the models. Hopefully, I can clear that up here.

• The recon flight investigating the upper-level disturbance off California took off from Sacramento around 1900Z (1:00 PM CST) this afternoon with the mission of parachuting 25 dropsondes near and around the disturbance to sample the atmosphere. It deployed its first dropsonde at around 2028Z (2:28 PM CST). The flight as of this posting is still in progress, and the flight continues to deploy dropsondes. Any model with a time of initialization before 21Z today will have no dropsonde information. (So... no recon data on the 18Z models!)
• The mission is scheduled to conclude by 0230Z (8:30 PM CST) tonight. If everything goes as planned it will have deployed 25 dropsondes.
• Recon data has begun to trickle into some of the more rapidly run models. For example, the RAP, which runs every hour, began ingesting an increasing number of dropsondes in its 21Z, 22Z, and 23Z runs as that data became available, and will continue to do so in subsequent runs (though the RAP and the related HRRR don't go out very far).
• The flight dropped 16 dropsondes before 00Z. In theory, the 00Z models should have these, along with flight-level data. I cannot guarantee that, but we will be able to tell via the model data monitors for the GFS and NAM whether that data made it in once those runs start spooling up. If not, then all the dropsondes from the entirety of the flight should make it in for the 06Z models.

Yes. See the recon thread.

[Sambucol2024]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16zKPU ... tid=wwXIfr

[bubba hotep]

There's been some confusion as to if/when recon data is getting into the models. Hopefully, I can clear that up here.

• The recon flight investigating the upper-level disturbance off California took off from Sacramento around 1900Z (1:00 PM CST) this afternoon with the mission of parachuting 25 dropsondes near and around the disturbance to sample the atmosphere. It deployed its first dropsonde at around 2028Z (2:28 PM CST). The flight as of this posting is still in progress, and the flight continues to deploy dropsondes. Any model with a time of initialization before 21Z today will have no dropsonde information. (So... no recon data on the 18Z models!)
• The mission is scheduled to conclude by 0230Z (8:30 PM CST) tonight. If everything goes as planned it will have deployed 25 dropsondes.
• Recon data has begun to trickle into some of the more rapidly run models. For example, the RAP, which runs every hour, began ingesting an increasing number of dropsondes in its 21Z, 22Z, and 23Z runs as that data became available, and will continue to do so in subsequent runs (though the RAP and the related HRRR don't go out very far).
• The flight dropped 16 dropsondes before 00Z. In theory, the 00Z models should have these, along with flight-level data. I cannot guarantee that, but we will be able to tell via the model data monitors for the GFS and NAM whether that data made it in once those runs start spooling up. If not, then all the dropsondes from the entirety of the flight should make it in for the 06Z models.

Upper-air recon can improve model performance by 10-20%, depending on the area being sampled and how data-sparse it is. So, it will be very interesting to see what changes show up on the 00z and 06z runs tonight. If it were up to me, we would have upper-air recon flying constantly over the North Pacific in the winter months.

[mmmmsnouts]

I got icemelt a few years ago. I think I could only find it maybe at Walmart.

I have a bag of that too. I think I got it at a small hardware store. But it didn’t do much good with the sleet last year… and that was just a fraction of what we’re supposed to get this time around.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, here is a list of analogs for the Southern Plains.

[bubba hotep]

18z RGEM has freezing rain knocking on the door of Houston Metro.

[Fifty Rock]

GFS has me in one of the heavy areas out here in West Texas.

[Cpv17]

Life and work had me busy since lunch yesterday. Just got through reading the last 20 pages on here. Really looking forward to the next few weeks!

As far as SETX is concerned, I really want to see more precip fill in towards SA and Laredo to give us more QPF and hopefully make it a few degrees colder.

[snownado]

These images below, even on the "colder" GFS, really put into perspective how bad the warm layer truly is...

They show the max temperature throughout the entire column between the surface and 500mb. The line between the dark blue and dark green contour is the freezing mark.

The first image is from 18z Saturday, which shows mid-level temps over DFW around 3-4*C (or 37*F to 39*F).

The second image does show that line finally retreating SE of the Metroplex sometime Sunday morning, but by that point the better forcing/moisture is already pulling off to the NE.

[Steve]

18z RGEM has freezing rain knocking on the door of Houston Metro.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2026012118/084/prateptype-imp.us_sc.png

It’s going to get there (if you could extrapolate a couple more plots). The global counterpart (CMC) had the ice or sleet sweeping through Houston on the 12z. Glad to see us closing in on the high res models. Next FV3 should be up shortly. That will take us to 12z Saturday. Tomorrow will get us into more of the short ranges going farther into the event. Should be a fun day to read post and model watch

[Ntxw]

FV3 0z Hi res is running now. It only goes out to Saturday morning but perhaps might give us some hints.