Texas Winter 2025-2026

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snownado
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3641 Postby snownado » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:10 pm

On another note, today was quite possibilty the last time many of us will see the sun until Monday.

That will also be fun for us folks with Seasonal Affective Disorder...
Last edited by snownado on Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3642 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:12 pm

Just got upgraded to a winter storm warning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3643 Postby snownado » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:13 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:GFS looks like dec 2013 on steroids with an inch or two of snow to cap things off in north Texas. Can’t say I’d feel short-changed with that outcome. As much as this would be dangerous to drive in, I would think this would be good for keeping power outages lower since it won’t accrete on power lines like ice and doesn’t clump up in trees like snow.


I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3644 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:17 pm

snownado wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:GFS looks like dec 2013 on steroids with an inch or two of snow to cap things off in north Texas. Can’t say I’d feel short-changed with that outcome. As much as this would be dangerous to drive in, I would think this would be good for keeping power outages lower since it won’t accrete on power lines like ice and doesn’t clump up in trees like snow.



I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.


Guessing you didn’t have any Texas Live Oaks when we got a foot of heavy wet snow. Devastated thousands of trees and lined the streets with debris for a month. Not to mention the localized power outages.

If I can’t have snow, give me sleet.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3645 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:19 pm

snownado wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:GFS looks like dec 2013 on steroids with an inch or two of snow to cap things off in north Texas. Can’t say I’d feel short-changed with that outcome. As much as this would be dangerous to drive in, I would think this would be good for keeping power outages lower since it won’t accrete on power lines like ice and doesn’t clump up in trees like snow.


I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.

I’m fortunate enough to live in an apartment during this storm, and therefore not have to deal with property damage myself, but I have homeowning family and friends who have had well established trees on their properties lose large branches due to snow weighing down trees in past events. It wouldn’t be unheard of for occurrences like that to lead to power outages when snow-heavy branches fall onto power lines. This isn’t really a high risk with sleet, but would definitely be an issue if this amount of qpf fell as snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3646 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:20 pm

:double:

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1012 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 6 or more inches are likely across parts of
Oklahoma and north Texas. A glaze of ice up to two tenths of an
inch is possible in parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas.
Winds could gust as high as 35 mph on Friday. Additionally,
dangerously cold wind chills are expected Friday night through
Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southeast, southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma and northern
Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Friday to noon CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may be extremely dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Oklahoma, for Oklahoma road
information call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7. In Texas, for Texas road
information call 8 0 0 4 5 2 9 2 9 2.

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3647 Postby snownado » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:22 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
snownado wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:GFS looks like dec 2013 on steroids with an inch or two of snow to cap things off in north Texas. Can’t say I’d feel short-changed with that outcome. As much as this would be dangerous to drive in, I would think this would be good for keeping power outages lower since it won’t accrete on power lines like ice and doesn’t clump up in trees like snow.



I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.


Guessing you didn’t have any Texas Live Oaks when we got a foot of heavy wet snow. Devastated thousands of trees and lined the streets with debris for a month


I'm not a Texas native (I also wasn't here for Feb. 2010), so I'm not familiar with that specific type of tree.

But that's fair.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3648 Postby snownado » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:25 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
snownado wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:GFS looks like dec 2013 on steroids with an inch or two of snow to cap things off in north Texas. Can’t say I’d feel short-changed with that outcome. As much as this would be dangerous to drive in, I would think this would be good for keeping power outages lower since it won’t accrete on power lines like ice and doesn’t clump up in trees like snow.


I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.

I’m fortunate enough to live in an apartment during this storm, and therefore not have to deal with property damage myself, but I have homeowning family and friends who have had well established trees on their properties lose large branches due to snow weighing down trees in past events. It wouldn’t be unheard of for occurrences like that to lead to power outages when snow-heavy branches fall onto power lines. This isn’t really a high risk with sleet, but would definitely be an issue if this amount of qpf fell as snow.


It would have to be the right combination of big snowfall accumulations and really high water content for that to happen, which is very rare with most snowstorms. I suppose Feb 2010 was the perfect storm for that kind of combination though.
Last edited by snownado on Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3649 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:26 pm

As usual, we in South Mississippi are left watching with envy on the outside looking in. I was even too far NORTH for last year’s big snow event that blanketed the coast. Last week, we missed snow by 70 miles to the SOUTHEAST again. :ggreen: By the way this is trending for us, we will be dodging tornadoes. :grr: Wxman, if you want warm weather just move a couple of states over. I’ll be living vicariously through you guys. I guess we do get the awful boring dry cold once the precip passes. :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3650 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:27 pm

RGEM prints out over 3" QPF in sub freezing air in Tyler. Almost all of that per that model would be freezing rain, gotta pray the warm nose is overdone, >6" of sleet is preferable to >1" of ice accretion.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3651 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:30 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:RGEM prints out over 3" QPF in sub freezing air in Tyler. Almost all of that per that model would be freezing rain, gotta pray the warm nose is overdone, >6" of sleet is preferable to >1" of ice accretion.


Yeah, east of DFW is going to have a major problem. That warm nose won’t erode nearly fast enough it appears. High Risk of catastrophic Frz Rain accumulation
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3652 Postby txag2005 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:30 pm

I'm a little concerned about the amount of freezing rain/ice we might end up getting in Houston metro area, especially in regards how that might result in power outages.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3653 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:31 pm

Some of us have talked about the end of the month with another cold wave which is now becoming more persistent on the GFS and of course the other globals to some extent. We may be doing this again next week trying to model watch, see how the cold and precip swings. Much like this week I think by Sunday or Monday we will all shift focus on the next big high pressure coming down.

Fwiw the GFS has a 1067mb high pressure dome up in the Arctic which is pretty much close to the record for up there. So the next cold wave at the end of the month has some linkage to Arctic air.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3654 Postby cstrunk » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:34 pm

I, for one, would like to welcome our new ice overlord, Fern.

It was nice knowing y'all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3655 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some of us have talked about the end of the month with another cold wave which is now becoming more persistent on the GFS and of course the other globals to some extent. We may be doing this again next week trying to model watch, see how the cold and precip swings. Much like this week I think by Sunday or Monday we will all shift focus on the next big high pressure coming down.

Fwiw the GFS has a 1067mb high pressure dome up in the Arctic which is pretty much close to the record for up there. So the next cold wave at the end of the month has some linkage to Arctic air.


Eh, I don’t care if it shows me getting 17 inches of snow 2 days out. I don’t believe it! :ggreen: sigh….im having a crash out. All these near misses has made me consider relocating to the Arctic Circle. lol!

Let me get back on track…it’s nice to have cold air around for a chance! Yeah, that’s the spirit.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3656 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:42 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:RGEM prints out over 3" QPF in sub freezing air in Tyler. Almost all of that per that model would be freezing rain, gotta pray the warm nose is overdone, >6" of sleet is preferable to >1" of ice accretion.


Yeah, east of DFW is going to have a major problem. That warm nose won’t erode nearly fast enough it appears. High Risk of catastrophic Frz Rain accumulation

Here in Lindale we appear to be right on the boundary between where will turn to sleet Saturday morning vs waiting until Saturday night to turn to sleet. Minor changes are gonna be huge for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3657 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:43 pm

Ntxw yeah, taking a peak at the gfs and cmc, their definitely looks to be potentially another winter storm threat around the 29-30th, absolutely insane pattern we are in
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3658 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:44 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Ntxw yeah, taking a peak at the gfs and cmc, their definitely looks to be potentially another winter storm threat around the 29-30th, absolutely insane pattern we are in


Looks very cold, I wouldn't even bother posting the cmc but support is there another big arctic blast could be brewing.

Most of the northern tier of the region barely can even thaw.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3659 Postby cstrunk » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:46 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:RGEM prints out over 3" QPF in sub freezing air in Tyler. Almost all of that per that model would be freezing rain, gotta pray the warm nose is overdone, >6" of sleet is preferable to >1" of ice accretion.


Yeah, east of DFW is going to have a major problem. That warm nose won’t erode nearly fast enough it appears. High Risk of catastrophic Frz Rain accumulation

Here in Lindale we appear to be right on the boundary between where will turn to sleet Saturday morning vs waiting until Saturday night to turn to sleet. Minor changes are gonna be huge for us.


You may get 6" of sleet while I get 1.5" freezing rain. :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3660 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:46 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Ntxw yeah, taking a peak at the gfs and cmc, their definitely looks to be potentially another winter storm threat around the 29-30th, absolutely insane pattern we are in


I know it's la la land, but the GFS actually shows some snow near Houston on the 30th.
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