Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Jag95]

Ntxw yeah, taking a peak at the gfs and cmc, their definitely looks to be potentially another winter storm threat around the 29-30th, absolutely insane pattern we are in

I know it's la la land, but the GFS actually shows some snow near Houston on the 30th.

It actually showed 4" around Gainesville, FL on the 18Z. Bears watching I guess, especially if that next slug of polar air makes it down. Euro shows the same system only further south.

[rwfromkansas]

Our spa is getting delivered on the 30th so I hope it's dry that day at least lol.

[Ntxw]

Our spa is getting delivered on the 30th so I hope it's dry that day at least lol.

GFS has snow/sleet potentially and cold, Canadian has snow storm and temps plunging towards teens on the 30th.

[iorange55]

Latest from Steve McCauley:

“The storm system off the coast of California is digging to the south and will eventually eject to the NE bringing a wintry mix of precipitation to north Texas this weekend.

In the Metroplex, precipitation will start off as a cold rain on Friday changing to freezing rain and sleet Friday night, and transitioning to mostly sleet on Saturday and then to a mix of snow and sleet late Saturday and Saturday night before ending as all snow Sunday morning as the system exits to the east.

Even though the math shows the system weakening as it moves in - the last thing we want is for it to maintain its current strength since this would make it worse than Feb 2021 - the upper-level storm will have more than enough energy to make a mess of the roads this weekend, and the bitterly cold temperatures are not going to help with wind chills falling below zero Sunday night into Monday morning threatening to freeze exposed pipes and water lines.

As most visitors to this page know, the Stat Method is unable to predict ice and snow accumulations more than 24 hour in advance, and since precipitation in most of the Metroplex is expected to remain liquid through the daylight hours on Friday, we are still more than 24 hours away from the ice / snow in the immediate DFW area.

Even though precise ice/snow totals cannot CURRENTLY be reliably predicted, the math still shows the heaviest snow (whatever that ends up being) to fall across the north and northwest sections of north Texas (and much worse in Oklahoma), the heaviest sleet will be here in the central portions of north Texas, and the heaviest ice will be in the southern and eastern sections of north Texas and down into central Texas. Ultimately, however, most locations will end up seeing all 3 precipitation types; it's just some locations will see more of one than the other two.

The critical question to answer is exactly where will the freezing rain-sleet-snow lines be drawn Friday through Sunday morning. Keep in mind that the lines will be constantly changing over this period as bitterly cold air continues to drain in from the north causing the thickness of the arctic air mass to increase. This, in turn, changes the precipitation type observed at the ground.

Stay tuned...”

[Texas Snow]

Our spa is getting delivered on the 30th so I hope it's dry that day at least lol.

You need to request an early delivery. Ain’t nuthin better about a hot tub than a hot tub in the snow.

(Barring an appearance from the Swedish bikini team in said hot tub, naturally )

[Edwards Limestone]

I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.

Guessing you didn’t have any Texas Live Oaks when we got a foot of heavy wet snow. Devastated thousands of trees and lined the streets with debris for a month

I'm not a Texas native (I also wasn't here for Feb. 2010), so I'm not familiar with that specific type of tree.

But that's fair.

We can tell.

[Ntxw]

I don't see how the bolded would be an issue. Pine Trees are built to withstand heavy snow, and most of the other trees are already bare.

But I agree. As awful as it is, sleet is the lesser evil between it and freezing rain.

I’m fortunate enough to live in an apartment during this storm, and therefore not have to deal with property damage myself, but I have homeowning family and friends who have had well established trees on their properties lose large branches due to snow weighing down trees in past events. It wouldn’t be unheard of for occurrences like that to lead to power outages when snow-heavy branches fall onto power lines. This isn’t really a high risk with sleet, but would definitely be an issue if this amount of qpf fell as snow.

It would have to be the right combination of big snowfall accumulations and really high water content for that to happen, which is very rare with most snowstorms. I suppose Feb 2010 was the perfect storm for that kind of combination though.

Indeed it was a very wet snow. DFW hovered 33F for nearly the entire event, much of the initial ~10" was that pasty snow. Huge flakes though most of the day. 1.08" qpf for 11.2" in the first 24 hours.

[txtwister78]

By tomorrow evening the short range model guidance will really start to offer some assistance with progression of the arctic air in comparison to the globals. The WRF members (specifically ARW and NSSL) have a pretty good track record along with the RGEM. Take a look at the WRF-NSSL in comparison to the NAM regarding surface temps at 6PM Friday. NSSL has a temp of 28 in San Angelo while the NAM has 51. Lol. Good test case going forward.

[Gotwood]

By tomorrow evening the short range model guidance will really start to offer some assistance with progression of the arctic air in comparison to the globals. The WRF members (specifically ARW and NSSL) have a pretty good track record along with the RGEM. Take a look at the WRF-NSSL in comparison to the NAM regarding surface temps at 6PM Friday. NSSL has a temp of 28 in San Angelo while the NAM has 51. Lol. Good test case going forward.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2026012200/048/sfct-imp.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f/1769040000/1769212800-askyBrILH90.png

NWS says it will be down to 34 by 5pm near my area so that lines up better considering most models are showing the temps not getting to freezing till around midnight.

[wxman22]

[Brent]

Tulsa is still saying up to 15 in a watch and Norman already pulling the trigger so early

This is crazy. I definitely think this storm could be actually historic here

The GFS had 18 inches by Monday good grief

Again the record for Tulsa is 14

[Cerlin]

Was supposed to drive to southeast Texas on Friday. Gonna ride this one out in Oklahoma instead! Definitely placing more trust into Euro/WRF solutions than NAM/HRRR at this point, as I believe the NAM especially is struggling with surface temperatures (it's 27 degrees in Norman right now, the recent 3km NAM thinks it's 34). I would not be shocked if this is an event where the initial frontal passage is about 3-6 hours ahead of schedule and sleet happens for the red river before sunset if the models struggle with anomalously cold air like they usually do. Shallow cold always wins!!